We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a threshold, as the threshold tends to the upper endpoint of the distribution. Unlike previous studies with $k>1$, we consider processes where standard limit theory describes each extreme event as a single observation without any information about the transition to and from the body of the distribution. Our work uses different asymptotic theory which results in non-degenerate limit laws for such processes. We study the extremal properties of the initial distribution and the transition probability kernel of the Markov chain under weak assumptions for broad classes of extremal dependence structures that cover both asymptotically dependent and asymptotically independent Markov chains. For chains with $k>1$, the transition of the chain away from the exceedance involves novel functions of the $k$ previous states, in comparison to just the single value, when $k=1$. This leads to an increase in the complexity of determining the form of this class of functions, their properties and the method of their derivation in applications. We find that it is possible to derive an affine normalization, dependent on the threshold excess, such that non-degenerate limiting behaviour of the process is assured for all lags. These normalization functions have an attractive structure that has parallels to the Yule-Walker equations. Furthermore, the limiting process is always linear in the innovations. We illustrate the results with the study of $k$th order stationary Markov chains with exponential margins based on widely studied families of copula dependence structures.
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We study reward-free reinforcement learning (RL) with linear function approximation, where the agent works in two phases: (1) in the exploration phase, the agent interacts with the environment but cannot access the reward; and (2) in the planning phase, the agent is given a reward function and is expected to find a near-optimal policy based on samples collected in the exploration phase. The sample complexities of existing reward-free algorithms have a polynomial dependence on the planning horizon, which makes them intractable for long planning horizon RL problems. In this paper, we propose a new reward-free algorithm for learning linear mixture Markov decision processes (MDPs), where the transition probability can be parameterized as a linear combination of known feature mappings. At the core of our algorithm is uncertainty-weighted value-targeted regression with exploration-driven pseudo-reward and a high-order moment estimator for the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. When the total reward is bounded by $1$, we show that our algorithm only needs to explore $\tilde O( d^2\varepsilon^{-2})$ episodes to find an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy, where $d$ is the dimension of the feature mapping. The sample complexity of our algorithm only has a polylogarithmic dependence on the planning horizon and therefore is ``horizon-free''. In addition, we provide an $\Omega(d^2\varepsilon^{-2})$ sample complexity lower bound, which matches the sample complexity of our algorithm up to logarithmic factors, suggesting that our algorithm is optimal.
The flocking motion control is concerned with managing the possible conflicts between local and team objectives of multi-agent systems. The overall control process guides the agents while monitoring the flock-cohesiveness and localization. The underlying mechanisms may degrade due to overlooking the unmodeled uncertainties associated with the flock dynamics and formation. On another side, the efficiencies of the various control designs rely on how quickly they can adapt to different dynamic situations in real-time. An online model-free policy iteration mechanism is developed here to guide a flock of agents to follow an independent command generator over a time-varying graph topology. The strength of connectivity between any two agents or the graph edge weight is decided using a position adjacency dependent function. An online recursive least squares approach is adopted to tune the guidance strategies without knowing the dynamics of the agents or those of the command generator. It is compared with another reinforcement learning approach from the literature which is based on a value iteration technique. The simulation results of the policy iteration mechanism revealed fast learning and convergence behaviors with less computational effort.
New emerging technologies powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) have the potential to disruptively transform our societies for the better. In particular, data-driven learning approaches (i.e., Machine Learning (ML)) have been a true revolution in the advancement of multiple technologies in various application domains. But at the same time there is growing concern about certain intrinsic characteristics of these methodologies that carry potential risks to both safety and fundamental rights. Although there are mechanisms in the adoption process to minimize these risks (e.g., safety regulations), these do not exclude the possibility of harm occurring, and if this happens, victims should be able to seek compensation. Liability regimes will therefore play a key role in ensuring basic protection for victims using or interacting with these systems. However, the same characteristics that make AI systems inherently risky, such as lack of causality, opacity, unpredictability or their self and continuous learning capabilities, may lead to considerable difficulties when it comes to proving causation. This paper presents three case studies, as well as the methodology to reach them, that illustrate these difficulties. Specifically, we address the cases of cleaning robots, delivery drones and robots in education. The outcome of the proposed analysis suggests the need to revise liability regimes to alleviate the burden of proof on victims in cases involving AI technologies.
Nonlinearity parameter tomography leads to the problem of identifying a coefficient in a nonlinear wave equation (such as the Westervelt equation) modeling ultrasound propagation. In this paper we transfer this into frequency domain, where the Westervelt equation gets replaced by a coupled system of Helmholtz equations with quadratic nonlinearities. For the case of the to-be-determined nonlinearity coefficient being a characteristic function of an unknown, not necessarily connected domain $D$, we devise and test a reconstruction algorithm based on weighted point source approximations combined with Newton's method. In a more abstract setting, convergence of a regularised Newton type method for this inverse problem is proven by verifying a range invariance condition of the forward operator and establishing injectivity of its linearisation.
The matrix sensing problem is an important low-rank optimization problem that has found a wide range of applications, such as matrix completion, phase synchornization/retrieval, robust PCA, and power system state estimation. In this work, we focus on the general matrix sensing problem with linear measurements that are corrupted by random noise. We investigate the scenario where the search rank $r$ is equal to the true rank $r^*$ of the unknown ground truth (the exact parametrized case), as well as the scenario where $r$ is greater than $r^*$ (the overparametrized case). We quantify the role of the restricted isometry property (RIP) in shaping the landscape of the non-convex factorized formulation and assisting with the success of local search algorithms. First, we develop a global guarantee on the maximum distance between an arbitrary local minimizer of the non-convex problem and the ground truth under the assumption that the RIP constant is smaller than $1/(1+\sqrt{r^*/r})$. We then present a local guarantee for problems with an arbitrary RIP constant, which states that any local minimizer is either considerably close to the ground truth or far away from it. More importantly, we prove that this noisy, overparametrized problem exhibits the strict saddle property, which leads to the global convergence of perturbed gradient descent algorithm in polynomial time. The results of this work provide a comprehensive understanding of the geometric landscape of the matrix sensing problem in the noisy and overparametrized regime.
Ensembling can improve the performance of Neural Networks, but existing approaches struggle when the architecture likelihood surface has dispersed, narrow peaks. Furthermore, existing methods construct equally weighted ensembles, and this is likely to be vulnerable to the failure modes of the weaker architectures. By viewing ensembling as approximately marginalising over architectures we construct ensembles using the tools of Bayesian Quadrature -- tools which are well suited to the exploration of likelihood surfaces with dispersed, narrow peaks. Additionally, the resulting ensembles consist of architectures weighted commensurate with their performance. We show empirically -- in terms of test likelihood, accuracy, and expected calibration error -- that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, and verify via ablation studies that its components do so independently.
(Stochastic) bilevel optimization is a frequently encountered problem in machine learning with a wide range of applications such as meta-learning, hyper-parameter optimization, and reinforcement learning. Most of the existing studies on this problem only focused on analyzing the convergence or improving the convergence rate, while little effort has been devoted to understanding its generalization behaviors. In this paper, we conduct a thorough analysis on the generalization of first-order (gradient-based) methods for the bilevel optimization problem. We first establish a fundamental connection between algorithmic stability and generalization error in different forms and give a high probability generalization bound which improves the previous best one from $\bigO(\sqrt{n})$ to $\bigO(\log n)$, where $n$ is the sample size. We then provide the first stability bounds for the general case where both inner and outer level parameters are subject to continuous update, while existing work allows only the outer level parameter to be updated. Our analysis can be applied in various standard settings such as strongly-convex-strongly-convex (SC-SC), convex-convex (C-C), and nonconvex-nonconvex (NC-NC). Our analysis for the NC-NC setting can also be extended to a particular nonconvex-strongly-convex (NC-SC) setting that is commonly encountered in practice. Finally, we corroborate our theoretical analysis and demonstrate how iterations can affect the generalization error by experiments on meta-learning and hyper-parameter optimization.
Following the breakthrough work of Tardos in the bit-complexity model, Vavasis and Ye gave the first exact algorithm for linear programming in the real model of computation with running time depending only on the constraint matrix. For solving a linear program (LP) $\max\, c^\top x,\: Ax = b,\: x \geq 0,\: A \in \mathbb{R}^{m \times n}$, Vavasis and Ye developed a primal-dual interior point method using a 'layered least squares' (LLS) step, and showed that $O(n^{3.5} \log (\bar{\chi}_A+n))$ iterations suffice to solve (LP) exactly, where $\bar{\chi}_A$ is a condition measure controlling the size of solutions to linear systems related to $A$. Monteiro and Tsuchiya, noting that the central path is invariant under rescalings of the columns of $A$ and $c$, asked whether there exists an LP algorithm depending instead on the measure $\bar{\chi}^*_A$, defined as the minimum $\bar{\chi}_{AD}$ value achievable by a column rescaling $AD$ of $A$, and gave strong evidence that this should be the case. We resolve this open question affirmatively. Our first main contribution is an $O(m^2 n^2 + n^3)$ time algorithm which works on the linear matroid of $A$ to compute a nearly optimal diagonal rescaling $D$ satisfying $\bar{\chi}_{AD} \leq n(\bar{\chi}^*)^3$. This algorithm also allows us to approximate the value of $\bar{\chi}_A$ up to a factor $n (\bar{\chi}^*)^2$. As our second main contribution, we develop a scaling invariant LLS algorithm, together with a refined potential function based analysis for LLS algorithms in general. With this analysis, we derive an improved $O(n^{2.5} \log n\log (\bar{\chi}^*_A+n))$ iteration bound for optimally solving (LP) using our algorithm. The same argument also yields a factor $n/\log n$ improvement on the iteration complexity bound of the original Vavasis-Ye algorithm.
Causal inference in spatial settings is met with unique challenges and opportunities. On one hand, a unit's outcome can be affected by the exposure at many locations, leading to interference. On the other hand, unmeasured spatial variables can confound the effect of interest. Our work has two overarching goals. First, using causal diagrams, we illustrate that spatial confounding and interference can manifest as each other, meaning that investigating the presence of one can lead to wrongful conclusions in the presence of the other, and that statistical dependencies in the exposure variable can render standard analyses invalid. This can have crucial implications for analyzing data with spatial or other dependencies, and for understanding the effect of interventions on dependent units. Secondly, we propose a parametric approach to mitigate bias from local and neighborhood unmeasured spatial confounding and account for interference simultaneously. This approach is based on simultaneous modeling of the exposure and the outcome while accounting for the presence of spatially-structured unmeasured predictors of both variables. We illustrate our approach with a simulation study and with an analysis of the local and interference effects of sulfur dioxide emissions from power plants on cardiovascular mortality.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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