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The network influence model is a model for binary outcome variables that accounts for dependencies between outcomes for units that are relationally tied. The basic influence model was previously extended to afford a suite of new dependence assumptions and because of its relation to traditional Markov random field models it is often referred to as the auto logistic actor-attribute model (ALAAM). We extend on current approaches for fitting ALAAMs by presenting a comprehensive Bayesian inference scheme that supports testing of dependencies across subsets of data and the presence of missing data. We illustrate different aspects of the procedures through three empirical examples: masculinity attitudes in an all-male Australian school class, educational progression in Swedish schools, and un-employment among adults in a community sample in Australia.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · 可辨認的 · 均方誤差 · 講稿 · 得分 ·
2022 年 4 月 20 日

Complaining is a speech act that expresses a negative inconsistency between reality and human expectations. While prior studies mostly focus on identifying the existence or the type of complaints, in this work, we present the first study in computational linguistics of measuring the intensity of complaints from text. Analyzing complaints from such perspective is particularly useful, as complaints of certain degrees may cause severe consequences for companies or organizations. We create the first Chinese dataset containing 3,103 posts about complaints from Weibo, a popular Chinese social media platform. These posts are then annotated with complaints intensity scores using Best-Worst Scaling (BWS) method. We show that complaints intensity can be accurately estimated by computational models with the best mean square error achieving 0.11. Furthermore, we conduct a comprehensive linguistic analysis around complaints, including the connections between complaints and sentiment, and a cross-lingual comparison for complaints expressions used by Chinese and English speakers. We finally show that our complaints intensity scores can be incorporated for better estimating the popularity of posts on social media.

We present a data-efficient framework for solving sequential decision-making problems which exploits the combination of reinforcement learning (RL) and latent variable generative models. The framework, called GenRL, trains deep policies by introducing an action latent variable such that the feed-forward policy search can be divided into two parts: (i) training a sub-policy that outputs a distribution over the action latent variable given a state of the system, and (ii) unsupervised training of a generative model that outputs a sequence of motor actions conditioned on the latent action variable. GenRL enables safe exploration and alleviates the data-inefficiency problem as it exploits prior knowledge about valid sequences of motor actions. Moreover, we provide a set of measures for evaluation of generative models such that we are able to predict the performance of the RL policy training prior to the actual training on a physical robot. We experimentally determine the characteristics of generative models that have most influence on the performance of the final policy training on two robotics tasks: shooting a hockey puck and throwing a basketball. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that GenRL is the only method which can safely and efficiently solve the robotics tasks compared to two state-of-the-art RL methods.

Network-aware cascade size prediction aims to predict the final reposted number of user-generated information via modeling the propagation process in social networks. Estimating the user's reposting probability by social influence, namely state activation plays an important role in the information diffusion process. Therefore, Graph Neural Networks (GNN), which can simulate the information interaction between nodes, has been proved as an effective scheme to handle this prediction task. However, existing studies including GNN-based models usually neglect a vital factor of user's preference which influences the state activation deeply. To that end, we propose a novel framework to promote cascade size prediction by enhancing the user preference modeling according to three stages, i.e., preference topics generation, preference shift modeling, and social influence activation. Our end-to-end method makes the user activating process of information diffusion more adaptive and accurate. Extensive experiments on two large-scale real-world datasets have clearly demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed model compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a method to obtain an area-level prediction region for a future observation which mitigates this trade-off. The proposed method takes a conformal prediction approach in which the conformity measure is the posterior predictive density of a working model that incorporates indirect information. The resulting prediction region has guaranteed frequentist coverage regardless of the working model, and, if the working model assumptions are accurate, the region has minimum expected volume compared to other regions with the same coverage rate. When constructed under a normal working model, we prove such a prediction region is an interval and construct an efficient algorithm to obtain the exact interval. We illustrate the performance of our method through simulation studies and an application to EPA radon survey data.

Influence Maximization (IM), which aims to select a set of users from a social network to maximize the expected number of influenced users, is an evergreen hot research topic. Its research outcomes significantly impact real-world applications such as business marketing. The booming location-based network platforms of the last decade appeal to the researchers embedding the location information into traditional IM research. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of the existing location-driven IM studies from the perspective of the following key aspects: (1) a review of the application scenarios of these works, (2) the diffusion models to evaluate the influence propagation, and (3) a comprehensive study of the approaches to deal with the location-driven IM problems together with a particular focus on the accelerating techniques. In the end, we draw prospects into the research directions in future IM research.

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is currently done via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with simple proposal mechanisms. This hinders exploration efficiency and often requires long runs to deliver accurate posterior estimates. In this paper, we present an alternative approach: a variational framework for Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. We propose combining subsplit Bayesian networks, an expressive graphical model for tree topology distributions, and a structured amortization of the branch lengths over tree topologies for a suitable variational family of distributions. We train the variational approximation via stochastic gradient ascent and adopt gradient estimators for continuous and discrete variational parameters separately to deal with the composite latent space of phylogenetic models. We show that our variational approach provides competitive performance to MCMC, while requiring much less computation due to a more efficient exploration mechanism enabled by variational inference. Experiments on a benchmark of challenging real data Bayesian phylogenetic inference problems demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our methods.

The ethical design of social Virtual Reality (VR) is not a new topic, but "safety" concerns of using social VR are escalated to a different level given the heat of the Metaverse. For example, it was reported that nearly half of the female-identifying VR participants have had at least one instance of virtual sexual harassment. Feeling safe is a basic human right - in any place, regardless in real or virtual spaces. In this paper, we are seeking to understand the discrepancy between user concerns and designs in protecting user safety in social VR applications. We study safety concerns on social VR experience first by analyzing Twitter posts and then synthesize practices on safety protection adopted by four mainstream social VR platforms. We argue that future research and platforms should explore the design of social VR with boundary-awareness.

The adaptive processing of structured data is a long-standing research topic in machine learning that investigates how to automatically learn a mapping from a structured input to outputs of various nature. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the adaptive processing of graphs, which led to the development of different neural network-based methodologies. In this thesis, we take a different route and develop a Bayesian Deep Learning framework for graph learning. The dissertation begins with a review of the principles over which most of the methods in the field are built, followed by a study on graph classification reproducibility issues. We then proceed to bridge the basic ideas of deep learning for graphs with the Bayesian world, by building our deep architectures in an incremental fashion. This framework allows us to consider graphs with discrete and continuous edge features, producing unsupervised embeddings rich enough to reach the state of the art on several classification tasks. Our approach is also amenable to a Bayesian nonparametric extension that automatizes the choice of almost all model's hyper-parameters. Two real-world applications demonstrate the efficacy of deep learning for graphs. The first concerns the prediction of information-theoretic quantities for molecular simulations with supervised neural models. After that, we exploit our Bayesian models to solve a malware-classification task while being robust to intra-procedural code obfuscation techniques. We conclude the dissertation with an attempt to blend the best of the neural and Bayesian worlds together. The resulting hybrid model is able to predict multimodal distributions conditioned on input graphs, with the consequent ability to model stochasticity and uncertainty better than most works. Overall, we aim to provide a Bayesian perspective into the articulated research field of deep learning for graphs.

Current deep learning research is dominated by benchmark evaluation. A method is regarded as favorable if it empirically performs well on the dedicated test set. This mentality is seamlessly reflected in the resurfacing area of continual learning, where consecutively arriving sets of benchmark data are investigated. The core challenge is framed as protecting previously acquired representations from being catastrophically forgotten due to the iterative parameter updates. However, comparison of individual methods is nevertheless treated in isolation from real world application and typically judged by monitoring accumulated test set performance. The closed world assumption remains predominant. It is assumed that during deployment a model is guaranteed to encounter data that stems from the same distribution as used for training. This poses a massive challenge as neural networks are well known to provide overconfident false predictions on unknown instances and break down in the face of corrupted data. In this work we argue that notable lessons from open set recognition, the identification of statistically deviating data outside of the observed dataset, and the adjacent field of active learning, where data is incrementally queried such that the expected performance gain is maximized, are frequently overlooked in the deep learning era. Based on these forgotten lessons, we propose a consolidated view to bridge continual learning, active learning and open set recognition in deep neural networks. Our results show that this not only benefits each individual paradigm, but highlights the natural synergies in a common framework. We empirically demonstrate improvements when alleviating catastrophic forgetting, querying data in active learning, selecting task orders, while exhibiting robust open world application where previously proposed methods fail.

We propose a Bayesian convolutional neural network built upon Bayes by Backprop and elaborate how this known method can serve as the fundamental construct of our novel, reliable variational inference method for convolutional neural networks. First, we show how Bayes by Backprop can be applied to convolutional layers where weights in filters have probability distributions instead of point-estimates; and second, how our proposed framework leads with various network architectures to performances comparable to convolutional neural networks with point-estimates weights. In the past, Bayes by Backprop has been successfully utilised in feedforward and recurrent neural networks, but not in convolutional ones. This work symbolises the extension of the group of Bayesian neural networks which encompasses all three aforementioned types of network architectures now.

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