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The network scale-up method (NSUM) is a cost-effective approach to estimating the size or prevalence of a group of people that is hard to reach through a standard survey. The basic NSUM involves two steps: estimating respondents' degrees by one of various methods (in this paper we focus on the probe group method which uses the number of people a respondent knows in various groups of known size), and estimating the prevalence of the hard-to-reach population of interest using respondents' estimated degrees and the number of people they report knowing in the hard-to-reach group. Each of these two steps involves taking either an average of ratios or a ratio of averages. Using the ratio of averages for each step has so far been the most common approach. However, we present theoretical arguments that using the average of ratios at the second, prevalence-estimation step often has lower mean squared error when the random mixing assumption is violated, which seems likely in practice; this estimator which uses the ratio of averages for degree estimates and the average of ratios for prevalence was proposed early in NSUM development but has largely been unexplored and unused. Simulation results using an example network data set also support these findings. Based on this theoretical and empirical evidence, we suggest that future surveys that use a simple estimator may want to use this mixed estimator, and estimation methods based on this estimator may produce new improvements.

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Language models have long been shown to embed geographical information in their hidden representations. This line of work has recently been revisited by extending this result to Large Language Models (LLMs). In this paper, we propose to fill the gap between well-established and recent literature by observing how geographical knowledge evolves when scaling language models. We show that geographical knowledge is observable even for tiny models, and that it scales consistently as we increase the model size. Notably, we observe that larger language models cannot mitigate the geographical bias that is inherent to the training data.

Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting ability of large language models (LLMs) suggests that frontier LLMs, as individual forecasters, underperform compared to the gold standard of a human crowd forecasting tournament aggregate. In Study 1, we expand this research by using an LLM ensemble approach consisting of a crowd of twelve LLMs. We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions to that of a crowd of 925 human forecasters from a three-month forecasting tournament. Our main analysis shows that the LLM crowd outperforms a simple no-information benchmark and is statistically equivalent to the human crowd. We also observe an acquiescence effect, with mean model predictions being significantly above 50%, despite an almost even split of positive and negative resolutions. Moreover, in Study 2, we test whether LLM predictions (of GPT-4 and Claude 2) can be improved by drawing on human cognitive output. We find that both models' forecasting accuracy benefits from exposure to the median human prediction as information, improving accuracy by between 17% and 28%: though this leads to less accurate predictions than simply averaging human and machine forecasts. Our results suggest that LLMs can achieve forecasting accuracy rivaling that of human crowd forecasting tournaments: via the simple, practically applicable method of forecast aggregation. This replicates the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect for LLMs, and opens up their use for a variety applications throughout society.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

Model uncertainty is pervasive in real world analysis situations and is an often-neglected issue in applied statistics. However, standard approaches to the research process do not address the inherent uncertainty in model building and, thus, can lead to overconfident and misleading analysis interpretations. One strategy to incorporate more flexible models is to base inferences on predictive modeling. This approach provides an alternative to existing explanatory models, as inference is focused on the posterior predictive distribution of the response variable. Predictive modeling can advance explanatory ambitions in the social sciences and in addition enrich the understanding of social phenomena under investigation. Bayesian stacking is a methodological approach rooted in Bayesian predictive modeling. In this paper, we outline the method of Bayesian stacking but add to it the approach of posterior predictive checking (PPC) as a means of assessing the predictive quality of those elements of the stacking ensemble that are important to the research question. Thus, we introduce a viable workflow for incorporating PPC into predictive modeling using Bayesian stacking without presuming the existence of a true model. We apply these tools to the PISA 2018 data to investigate potential inequalities in reading competency with respect to gender and socio-economic background. Our empirical example serves as rough guideline for practitioners who want to implement the concepts of predictive modeling and model uncertainty in their work to similar research questions.

In fair machine learning, one source of performance disparities between groups is over-fitting to groups with relatively few training samples. We derive group-specific bounds on the generalization error of welfare-centric fair machine learning that benefit from the larger sample size of the majority group. We do this by considering group-specific Rademacher averages over a restricted hypothesis class, which contains the family of models likely to perform well with respect to a fair learning objective (e.g., a power-mean). Our simulations demonstrate these bounds improve over a naive method, as expected by theory, with particularly significant improvement for smaller group sizes.

Edge detection as a pre-processing stage is a fundamental and important aspect of the number plate extraction system. This is due to the fact that the identification of a particular vehicle is achievable using the number plate because each number plate is unique to a vehicle. As such, the characters of a number plate system that differ in lines and shapes can be extracted using the principle of edge detection. This paper presents a method of number plate extraction using edge detection technique. Edges in number plates are identified with changes in the intensity of pixel values. Therefore, these edges are identified using a single based pixel or collection of pixel-based approach. The efficiency of these approaches of edge detection algorithms in number plate extraction in both noisy and clean environment are experimented. Experimental results are achieved in MATLAB 2017b using the Pratt Figure of Merit (PFOM) as a performance metric

Adversarial examples in machine learning has emerged as a focal point of research due to their remarkable ability to deceive models with seemingly inconspicuous input perturbations, potentially resulting in severe consequences. In this study, we undertake a thorough investigation into the emergence of adversarial examples, a phenomenon that can, in principle, manifest in a wide range of machine learning models. Through our research, we unveil a new notion termed computational entanglement, with its ability to entangle distant features, display perfect correlations or anti-correlations regardless to their spatial separation, significantly contributes to the emergence of adversarial examples. We illustrate how computational entanglement aligns with relativistic effects such as time dilation and length contraction to feature pair, ultimately resulting in the convergence of their angle differences and distances towards zero, signifying perfect correlation, or towards maximum, indicating perfect anti-correlation.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have been demonstrated to be a powerful algorithmic model in broad application fields for their effectiveness in learning over graphs. To scale GNN training up for large-scale and ever-growing graphs, the most promising solution is distributed training which distributes the workload of training across multiple computing nodes. However, the workflows, computational patterns, communication patterns, and optimization techniques of distributed GNN training remain preliminarily understood. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey of distributed GNN training by investigating various optimization techniques used in distributed GNN training. First, distributed GNN training is classified into several categories according to their workflows. In addition, their computational patterns and communication patterns, as well as the optimization techniques proposed by recent work are introduced. Second, the software frameworks and hardware platforms of distributed GNN training are also introduced for a deeper understanding. Third, distributed GNN training is compared with distributed training of deep neural networks, emphasizing the uniqueness of distributed GNN training. Finally, interesting issues and opportunities in this field are discussed.

In pace with developments in the research field of artificial intelligence, knowledge graphs (KGs) have attracted a surge of interest from both academia and industry. As a representation of semantic relations between entities, KGs have proven to be particularly relevant for natural language processing (NLP), experiencing a rapid spread and wide adoption within recent years. Given the increasing amount of research work in this area, several KG-related approaches have been surveyed in the NLP research community. However, a comprehensive study that categorizes established topics and reviews the maturity of individual research streams remains absent to this day. Contributing to closing this gap, we systematically analyzed 507 papers from the literature on KGs in NLP. Our survey encompasses a multifaceted review of tasks, research types, and contributions. As a result, we present a structured overview of the research landscape, provide a taxonomy of tasks, summarize our findings, and highlight directions for future work.

Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.

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