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We propose a method for maximum likelihood estimation of path choice model parameters and arc travel time using data of different levels of granularity. Hitherto these two tasks have been tackled separately under strong assumptions. Using a small example, we illustrate that this can lead to biased results. Results on both real (New York yellow cab) and simulated data show strong performance of our method compared to existing baselines.

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Given a document in a source language, cross-lingual summarization (CLS) aims at generating a concise summary in a different target language. Unlike monolingual summarization (MS), naturally occurring source-language documents paired with target-language summaries are rare. To collect large-scale CLS samples, existing datasets typically involve translation in their creation. However, the translated text is distinguished from the text originally written in that language, i.e., translationese. Though many efforts have been devoted to CLS, none of them notice the phenomenon of translationese. In this paper, we first confirm that the different approaches to constructing CLS datasets will lead to different degrees of translationese. Then we design systematic experiments to investigate how translationese affects CLS model evaluation and performance when it appears in source documents or target summaries. In detail, we find that (1) the translationese in documents or summaries of test sets might lead to the discrepancy between human judgment and automatic evaluation; (2) the translationese in training sets would harm model performance in the real scene; (3) though machine-translated documents involve translationese, they are very useful for building CLS systems on low-resource languages under specific training strategies. Furthermore, we give suggestions for future CLS research including dataset and model developments. We hope that our work could let researchers notice the phenomenon of translationese in CLS and take it into account in the future.

A general numerical method using sum of squares programming is proposed to address the problem of estimating the region of attraction (ROA) of an asymptotically stable equilibrium point of a nonlinear polynomial system. The method is based on Lyapunov theory, and a shape function is defined to enlarge the provable subset of a local Lyapunov function. In contrast with existing methods with a shape function centered at the equilibrium point, the proposed method utilizes a shifted shape function (SSF) with its center shifted iteratively towards the boundary of the newly obtained invariant subset to improve ROA estimation. A set of shifting centers with corresponding SSFs is generated to produce proven subsets of the exact ROA and then a composition method, namely R-composition, is employed to express these independent sets in a compact form by just a single but richer-shaped level set. The proposed method denoted as RcomSSF brings a significant improvement for general ROA estimation problems, especially for non-symmetric or unbounded ROA, while keeping the computational burden at a reasonable level. Its effectiveness and advantages are demonstrated by several benchmark examples from literature.

Accurate travel time estimation is paramount for providing transit users with reliable schedules and dependable real-time information. This paper is the first to utilize roadside urban imagery for direct transit travel time prediction. We propose and evaluate an end-to-end framework integrating traditional transit data sources with a roadside camera for automated roadside image data acquisition, labeling, and model training to predict transit travel times across a segment of interest. First, we show how the GTFS real-time data can be utilized as an efficient activation mechanism for a roadside camera unit monitoring a segment of interest. Second, AVL data is utilized to generate ground truth labels for the acquired images based on the observed transit travel time percentiles across the camera-monitored segment during the time of image acquisition. Finally, the generated labeled image dataset is used to train and thoroughly evaluate a Vision Transformer (ViT) model to predict a discrete transit travel time range (band). The results illustrate that the ViT model is able to learn image features and contents that best help it deduce the expected travel time range with an average validation accuracy ranging between 80%-85%. We assess the interpretability of the ViT model's predictions and showcase how this discrete travel time band prediction can subsequently improve continuous transit travel time estimation. The workflow and results presented in this study provide an end-to-end, scalable, automated, and highly efficient approach for integrating traditional transit data sources and roadside imagery to improve the estimation of transit travel duration. This work also demonstrates the value of incorporating real-time information from computer-vision sources, which are becoming increasingly accessible and can have major implications for improving operations and passenger real-time information.

Estimating the entropy rate of discrete time series is a challenging problem with important applications in numerous areas including neuroscience, genomics, image processing and natural language processing. A number of approaches have been developed for this task, typically based either on universal data compression algorithms, or on statistical estimators of the underlying process distribution. In this work, we propose a fully-Bayesian approach for entropy estimation. Building on the recently introduced Bayesian Context Trees (BCT) framework for modelling discrete time series as variable-memory Markov chains, we show that it is possible to sample directly from the induced posterior on the entropy rate. This can be used to estimate the entire posterior distribution, providing much richer information than point estimates. We develop theoretical results for the posterior distribution of the entropy rate, including proofs of consistency and asymptotic normality. The practical utility of the method is illustrated on both simulated and real-world data, where it is found to outperform state-of-the-art alternatives.

Evaluating the performance of an ongoing policy plays a vital role in many areas such as medicine and economics, to provide crucial instruction on the early-stop of the online experiment and timely feedback from the environment. Policy evaluation in online learning thus attracts increasing attention by inferring the mean outcome of the optimal policy (i.e., the value) in real-time. Yet, such a problem is particularly challenging due to the dependent data generated in the online environment, the unknown optimal policy, and the complex exploration and exploitation trade-off in the adaptive experiment. In this paper, we aim to overcome these difficulties in policy evaluation for online learning. We explicitly derive the probability of exploration that quantifies the probability of exploring the non-optimal actions under commonly used bandit algorithms. We use this probability to conduct valid inference on the online conditional mean estimator under each action and develop the doubly robust interval estimation (DREAM) method to infer the value under the estimated optimal policy in online learning. The proposed value estimator provides double protection on the consistency and is asymptotically normal with a Wald-type confidence interval provided. Extensive simulations and real data applications are conducted to demonstrate the empirical validity of the proposed DREAM method.

Reducing the global burden of stillbirths is important to improving child and maternal health. Of interest is understanding patterns in the timing of stillbirths -- that is, whether they occur in the intra- or antepartum period -- because stillbirths that occur intrapartum are largely preventable. However, data availability on the timing of stillbirths is highly variable across the world, with low- and middle-income countries generally having few reliable observations. In this paper we develop a Bayesian penalized splines regression framework to estimate the proportion of stillbirths that are intrapartum for all countries worldwide. The model accounts for known relationships with neonatal mortality, pools information across geographic regions, incorporates different errors based on data attributes, and allows for data-driven temporal trends. A weighting procedure is proposed to account for unrepresentative subnational data. Results suggest that the intrapartum proportion is generally decreasing over time, but progress is slower in some regions, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa.

In this paper, different strands of literature are combined in order to obtain algorithms for semi-parametric estimation of discrete choice models that include the modelling of unobserved heterogeneity by using mixing distributions for the parameters defining the preferences. The models use the theory on non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation (NP-MLE) that has been developed for general mixing models. The expectation-maximization (EM) techniques used in the NP-MLE literature are combined with strategies for choosing appropriate approximating models using adaptive grid techniques. \\ Jointly this leads to techniques for specification and estimation that can be used to obtain a consistent specification of the mixing distribution. Additionally, also algorithms for the estimation are developed that help to decrease problems due to the curse of dimensionality. \\ The proposed algorithms are demonstrated in a small scale simulation study to be useful for the specification and estimation of mixture models in the discrete choice context providing some information on the specification of the mixing distribution. The simulations document that some aspects of the mixing distribution such as the expectation can be estimated reliably. They also demonstrate, however, that typically different approximations to the mixing distribution lead to similar values of the likelihood and hence are hard to discriminate. Therefore it does not appear to be possible to reliably infer the most appropriate parametric form for the estimated mixing distribution.

Numerical simulations are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Machine learning for science investigates how artificial neural architectures can learn from these simulations to speed up scientific discovery and engineering processes. Most of these architectures are trained in a supervised manner. They require tremendous amounts of data from simulations that are slow to generate and memory greedy. In this article, we present our ongoing work to design a training framework that alleviates those bottlenecks. It generates data in parallel with the training process. Such simultaneity induces a bias in the data available during the training. We present a strategy to mitigate this bias with a memory buffer. We test our framework on the multi-parametric Lorenz's attractor. We show the benefit of our framework compared to offline training and the success of our data bias mitigation strategy to capture the complex chaotic dynamics of the system.

Good models require good training data. For overparameterized deep models, the causal relationship between training data and model predictions is increasingly opaque and poorly understood. Influence analysis partially demystifies training's underlying interactions by quantifying the amount each training instance alters the final model. Measuring the training data's influence exactly can be provably hard in the worst case; this has led to the development and use of influence estimators, which only approximate the true influence. This paper provides the first comprehensive survey of training data influence analysis and estimation. We begin by formalizing the various, and in places orthogonal, definitions of training data influence. We then organize state-of-the-art influence analysis methods into a taxonomy; we describe each of these methods in detail and compare their underlying assumptions, asymptotic complexities, and overall strengths and weaknesses. Finally, we propose future research directions to make influence analysis more useful in practice as well as more theoretically and empirically sound. A curated, up-to-date list of resources related to influence analysis is available at //github.com/ZaydH/influence_analysis_papers.

A recently developed measure-theoretic framework solves a stochastic inverse problem (SIP) for models where uncertainties in model output data are predominantly due to aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) uncertainties in model inputs (i.e., parameters). The subsequent inferential target is a distribution on parameters. Another type of inverse problem is to quantify uncertainties in estimates of "true" parameter values under the assumption that such uncertainties should be reduced as more data are incorporated into the problem, i.e., the uncertainty is considered epistemic. A major contribution of this work is the formulation and solution of such a parameter identification problem (PIP) within the measure-theoretic framework developed for the SIP. The approach is novel in that it utilizes a solution to a stochastic forward problem (SFP) to update an initial density only in the parameter directions informed by the model output data. In other words, this method performs "selective regularization" only in the parameter directions not informed by data. The solution is defined by a maximal updated density (MUD) point where the updated density defines the measure-theoretic solution to the PIP. Another significant contribution of this work is the full theory of existence and uniqueness of MUD points for linear maps with Gaussian distributions. Data-constructed Quantity of Interest (QoI) maps are also presented and analyzed for solving the PIP within this measure-theoretic framework as a means of reducing uncertainties in the MUD estimate. We conclude with a demonstration of the general applicability of the method on two problems involving either spatial or temporal data for estimating uncertain model parameters.

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