With the ever-increasing availability of data, there has been an explosion of interest in applying modern machine learning methods to fields such as modeling and control. However, despite the flexibility and surprising accuracy of such black-box models, it remains difficult to trust them. Recent efforts to combine the two approaches aim to develop flexible models that nonetheless generalize well; a paradigm we call Hybrid Analysis and modeling (HAM). In this work we investigate the Corrective Source Term Approach (CoSTA), which uses a data-driven model to correct a misspecified physics-based model. This enables us to develop models that make accurate predictions even when the underlying physics of the problem is not well understood. We apply CoSTA to model the Hall-H\'eroult process in an aluminum electrolysis cell. We demonstrate that the method improves both accuracy and predictive stability, yielding an overall more trustworthy model.
Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.
We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1931 to 2022. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily maximum temperature data. We model the tails of the marginal variables using the generalised Pareto distribution and the spatial dependence of extreme events by a semi-parametric Brown-Resnick r-generalised Pareto process, with parameters of each model allowed to change over time. We use weather station observations for modelling extreme events since data from climate models (not conditioned on observational data) can over-smooth these events and have trends determined by the specific climate model configuration. However, climate models do provide valuable information about the detailed physiography over Ireland and the associated climate response. We propose novel methods which exploit the climate model data to overcome issues linked to the sparse and biased sampling of the observations. Our analysis identifies a temporal change in the marginal behaviour of extreme temperature events over the study domain, which is much larger than the change in mean temperature levels over this time window. We illustrate how these characteristics result in increased spatial coverage of the events that exceed critical temperatures.
As control engineering methods are applied to increasingly complex systems, data-driven approaches for system identification appear as a promising alternative to physics-based modeling. While many of these approaches rely on the availability of state measurements, the states of a complex system are often not directly measurable. It may then be necessary to jointly estimate the dynamics and a latent state, making it considerably more challenging to design controllers with performance guarantees. This paper proposes a novel method for the computation of an optimal input trajectory for unknown nonlinear systems with latent states. Probabilistic performance guarantees are derived for the resulting input trajectory, and an approach to validate the performance of arbitrary control laws is presented. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in a numerical simulation.
Process simulation is an analysis tool in process mining that allows users to measure the impact of changes, prevent losses, and update the process without risks or costs. In the literature, several process simulation techniques are available and they are usually built upon process models discovered from a given event log or learned via deep learning. Each group of approaches has its own strengths and limitations. The former is usually restricted to the control-flow but it is more interpretable, whereas the latter is not interpretable by nature but has a greater generalization capability on large event logs. Despite the great performance achieved by deep learning approaches, they are still not suitable to be applied to real scenarios and generate value for users. This issue is mainly due to fact their stochasticity is hard to control. To address this problem, we propose the CoSMo framework for implementing process simulation models fully based on deep learning. This framework enables simulating event logs that satisfy a constraint by conditioning the learning phase of a deep neural network. Throughout experiments, the simulation is validated from both control-flow and data-flow perspectives, demonstrating the proposed framework's capability of simulating cases while satisfying imposed conditions.
Interpretability methods are developed to understand the working mechanisms of black-box models, which is crucial to their responsible deployment. Fulfilling this goal requires both that the explanations generated by these methods are correct and that people can easily and reliably understand them. While the former has been addressed in prior work, the latter is often overlooked, resulting in informal model understanding derived from a handful of local explanations. In this paper, we introduce explanation summary (ExSum), a mathematical framework for quantifying model understanding, and propose metrics for its quality assessment. On two domains, ExSum highlights various limitations in the current practice, helps develop accurate model understanding, and reveals easily overlooked properties of the model. We also connect understandability to other properties of explanations such as human alignment, robustness, and counterfactual minimality and plausibility.
Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have been widely applied in various fields due to their significant power on processing graph-structured data. Typical GCN and its variants work under a homophily assumption (i.e., nodes with same class are prone to connect to each other), while ignoring the heterophily which exists in many real-world networks (i.e., nodes with different classes tend to form edges). Existing methods deal with heterophily by mainly aggregating higher-order neighborhoods or combing the immediate representations, which leads to noise and irrelevant information in the result. But these methods did not change the propagation mechanism which works under homophily assumption (that is a fundamental part of GCNs). This makes it difficult to distinguish the representation of nodes from different classes. To address this problem, in this paper we design a novel propagation mechanism, which can automatically change the propagation and aggregation process according to homophily or heterophily between node pairs. To adaptively learn the propagation process, we introduce two measurements of homophily degree between node pairs, which is learned based on topological and attribute information, respectively. Then we incorporate the learnable homophily degree into the graph convolution framework, which is trained in an end-to-end schema, enabling it to go beyond the assumption of homophily. More importantly, we theoretically prove that our model can constrain the similarity of representations between nodes according to their homophily degree. Experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that this new approach outperforms the state-of-the-art methods under heterophily or low homophily, and gains competitive performance under homophily.
Unsupervised domain adaptation has recently emerged as an effective paradigm for generalizing deep neural networks to new target domains. However, there is still enormous potential to be tapped to reach the fully supervised performance. In this paper, we present a novel active learning strategy to assist knowledge transfer in the target domain, dubbed active domain adaptation. We start from an observation that energy-based models exhibit free energy biases when training (source) and test (target) data come from different distributions. Inspired by this inherent mechanism, we empirically reveal that a simple yet efficient energy-based sampling strategy sheds light on selecting the most valuable target samples than existing approaches requiring particular architectures or computation of the distances. Our algorithm, Energy-based Active Domain Adaptation (EADA), queries groups of targe data that incorporate both domain characteristic and instance uncertainty into every selection round. Meanwhile, by aligning the free energy of target data compact around the source domain via a regularization term, domain gap can be implicitly diminished. Through extensive experiments, we show that EADA surpasses state-of-the-art methods on well-known challenging benchmarks with substantial improvements, making it a useful option in the open world. Code is available at //github.com/BIT-DA/EADA.
Detection and recognition of text in natural images are two main problems in the field of computer vision that have a wide variety of applications in analysis of sports videos, autonomous driving, industrial automation, to name a few. They face common challenging problems that are factors in how text is represented and affected by several environmental conditions. The current state-of-the-art scene text detection and/or recognition methods have exploited the witnessed advancement in deep learning architectures and reported a superior accuracy on benchmark datasets when tackling multi-resolution and multi-oriented text. However, there are still several remaining challenges affecting text in the wild images that cause existing methods to underperform due to there models are not able to generalize to unseen data and the insufficient labeled data. Thus, unlike previous surveys in this field, the objectives of this survey are as follows: first, offering the reader not only a review on the recent advancement in scene text detection and recognition, but also presenting the results of conducting extensive experiments using a unified evaluation framework that assesses pre-trained models of the selected methods on challenging cases, and applies the same evaluation criteria on these techniques. Second, identifying several existing challenges for detecting or recognizing text in the wild images, namely, in-plane-rotation, multi-oriented and multi-resolution text, perspective distortion, illumination reflection, partial occlusion, complex fonts, and special characters. Finally, the paper also presents insight into the potential research directions in this field to address some of the mentioned challenges that are still encountering scene text detection and recognition techniques.
This paper aims at revisiting Graph Convolutional Neural Networks by bridging the gap between spectral and spatial design of graph convolutions. We theoretically demonstrate some equivalence of the graph convolution process regardless it is designed in the spatial or the spectral domain. The obtained general framework allows to lead a spectral analysis of the most popular ConvGNNs, explaining their performance and showing their limits. Moreover, the proposed framework is used to design new convolutions in spectral domain with a custom frequency profile while applying them in the spatial domain. We also propose a generalization of the depthwise separable convolution framework for graph convolutional networks, what allows to decrease the total number of trainable parameters by keeping the capacity of the model. To the best of our knowledge, such a framework has never been used in the GNNs literature. Our proposals are evaluated on both transductive and inductive graph learning problems. Obtained results show the relevance of the proposed method and provide one of the first experimental evidence of transferability of spectral filter coefficients from one graph to another. Our source codes are publicly available at: //github.com/balcilar/Spectral-Designed-Graph-Convolutions
Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success in computer vision tasks. Existing neural networks mainly operate in the spatial domain with fixed input sizes. For practical applications, images are usually large and have to be downsampled to the predetermined input size of neural networks. Even though the downsampling operations reduce computation and the required communication bandwidth, it removes both redundant and salient information obliviously, which results in accuracy degradation. Inspired by digital signal processing theories, we analyze the spectral bias from the frequency perspective and propose a learning-based frequency selection method to identify the trivial frequency components which can be removed without accuracy loss. The proposed method of learning in the frequency domain leverages identical structures of the well-known neural networks, such as ResNet-50, MobileNetV2, and Mask R-CNN, while accepting the frequency-domain information as the input. Experiment results show that learning in the frequency domain with static channel selection can achieve higher accuracy than the conventional spatial downsampling approach and meanwhile further reduce the input data size. Specifically for ImageNet classification with the same input size, the proposed method achieves 1.41% and 0.66% top-1 accuracy improvements on ResNet-50 and MobileNetV2, respectively. Even with half input size, the proposed method still improves the top-1 accuracy on ResNet-50 by 1%. In addition, we observe a 0.8% average precision improvement on Mask R-CNN for instance segmentation on the COCO dataset.