Confidence intervals based on the central limit theorem (CLT) are a cornerstone of classical statistics. Despite being only asymptotically valid, they are ubiquitous because they permit statistical inference under very weak assumptions, and can often be applied to problems even when nonasymptotic inference is impossible. This paper introduces time-uniform analogues of such asymptotic confidence intervals. To elaborate, our methods take the form of confidence sequences (CS) -- sequences of confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over time. CSs provide valid inference at arbitrary stopping times, incurring no penalties for "peeking" at the data, unlike classical confidence intervals which require the sample size to be fixed in advance. Existing CSs in the literature are nonasymptotic, and hence do not enjoy the aforementioned broad applicability of asymptotic confidence intervals. Our work bridges the gap by giving a definition for "asymptotic CSs", and deriving a universal asymptotic CS that requires only weak CLT-like assumptions. While the CLT approximates the distribution of a sample average by that of a Gaussian at a fixed sample size, we use strong invariance principles (stemming from the seminal 1960s work of Strassen and improvements by Koml\'os, Major, and Tusn\'ady) to uniformly approximate the entire sample average process by an implicit Gaussian process. As an illustration of our theory, we derive asymptotic CSs for the average treatment effect using efficient estimators in observational studies (for which no nonasymptotic bounds can exist even in the fixed-time regime) as well as randomized experiments, enabling causal inference that can be continuously monitored and adaptively stopped.
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We present a priori error estimates for a multirate time-stepping scheme for coupled differential equations. The discretization is based on Galerkin methods in time using two different time meshes for two parts of the problem. We aim at surface coupled multiphysics problems like two-phase flows. Special focus is on the handling of the interface coupling to guarantee a coercive formulation as key to optimal order error estimates. In a sequence of increasing complexity, we begin with the coupling of two ordinary differential equations, coupled heat conduction equation, and finally a coupled Stokes problem. For this we show optimal multi-rate estimates in velocity and a suboptimal result in pressure. The a priori estimates prove that the multirate method decouples the two subproblems exactly. This is the basis for adaptive methods which can choose optimal lattices for the respective subproblems.
Positive spanning sets span a given vector space by nonnegative linear combinations of their elements. These have attracted significant attention in recent years, owing to their extensive use in derivative-free optimization. In this setting, the quality of a positive spanning set is assessed through its cosine measure, a geometric quantity that expresses how well such a set covers the space of interest. In this paper, we investigate the construction of positive $k$-spanning sets with geometrical guarantees.Our results build on recently identified positive spanning sets, called orthogonally structured positive bases. We first describe how to identify such sets and compute their cosine measures efficiently. We then focus our study on positive $k$-spanning sets, for which we provide a complete description, as well as a new notion of cosine measure that accounts for the resilient nature of such sets. By combining our results, we are able to use orthogonally structured positive bases to create positive $k$-spanning sets with guarantees on the value of their cosine measures.
The equioscillation condition is extended to multivariate approximation. To this end, it is reformulated as the synchronized oscillations between the error maximizers and the components of a related Haar matrix kernel vector. This new condition gives rise to a multivariate equioscillation theorem where the Haar condition is not assumed and hence the existence and the characterization by equioscillation become independent of uniqueness. This allows the theorem to be applicable to problems with no strong uniqueness or even no uniqueness. A technical additional requirement on the involved Haar matrix and its kernel vector is proved to be sufficient for strong uniqueness. Instances of multivariate problems with strongly unique, unique and nonunique solutions are presented to illustrate the scope of the theorem.
An overview is presented of a general theory of statistical inference that is referred to as the fiducial-Bayes fusion. This theory combines organic fiducial inference and Bayesian inference. The aim is that the reader is given a clear summary of the conceptual framework of the fiducial-Bayes fusion as well as pointers to further reading about its more technical aspects. Particular attention is paid to the issue of how much importance should be attached to the role of Bayesian inference within this framework. The appendix contains a substantive example of the application of the theory of the fiducial-Bayes fusion, which supplements various other examples of the application of this theory that are referenced in the paper.
Generalized cross-validation (GCV) is a widely-used method for estimating the squared out-of-sample prediction risk that employs a scalar degrees of freedom adjustment (in a multiplicative sense) to the squared training error. In this paper, we examine the consistency of GCV for estimating the prediction risk of arbitrary ensembles of penalized least squares estimators. We show that GCV is inconsistent for any finite ensemble of size greater than one. Towards repairing this shortcoming, we identify a correction that involves an additional scalar correction (in an additive sense) based on degrees of freedom adjusted training errors from each ensemble component. The proposed estimator (termed CGCV) maintains the computational advantages of GCV and requires neither sample splitting, model refitting, or out-of-bag risk estimation. The estimator stems from a finer inspection of ensemble risk decomposition and two intermediate risk estimators for the components in this decomposition. We provide a non-asymptotic analysis of the CGCV and the two intermediate risk estimators for ensembles of convex penalized estimators under Gaussian features and a linear response model. In the special case of ridge regression, we extend the analysis to general feature and response distributions using random matrix theory, which establishes model-free uniform consistency of CGCV.
Fitted finite element methods are constructed for a singularly perturbed convection-diffusion problem in two space dimensions. Exponential splines as basis functions are combined with Shishkin meshes to obtain a stable parameter-uniform numerical method. These schemes satisfy a discrete maximum principle. In the classical case, the numerical approximations converge, in the maximum pointwise norm, at a rate of second order and the approximations converge at a rate of first order for all values of the singular perturbation parameter.
When dealing with a parametric statistical model, a Riemannian manifold can naturally appear by endowing the parameter space with the Fisher information metric. The geometry induced on the parameters by this metric is then referred to as the Fisher-Rao information geometry. Interestingly, this yields a point of view that allows for leveragingmany tools from differential geometry. After a brief introduction about these concepts, we will present some practical uses of these geometric tools in the framework of elliptical distributions. This second part of the exposition is divided into three main axes: Riemannian optimization for covariance matrix estimation, Intrinsic Cram\'er-Rao bounds, and classification using Riemannian distances.
Organizations often rely on statistical algorithms to make socially and economically impactful decisions. We must address the fairness issues in these important automated decisions. On the other hand, economic efficiency remains instrumental in organizations' survival and success. Therefore, a proper dual focus on fairness and efficiency is essential in promoting fairness in real-world data science solutions. Among the first efforts towards this dual focus, we incorporate the equal opportunity (EO) constraint into the Neyman-Pearson (NP) classification paradigm. Under this new NP-EO framework, we (a) derive the oracle classifier, (b) propose finite-sample based classifiers that satisfy population-level fairness and efficiency constraints with high probability, and (c) demonstrate statistical and social effectiveness of our algorithms on simulated and real datasets.
In this short note we formulate a stabilizer formalism in the language of noncommutative graphs. The classes of noncommutative graphs we consider are obtained via unitary representations of compact groups, and suitably chosen operators on finite-dimensional Hilbert spaces. Furthermore, in this framework, we generalize previous results in this area for determining when such noncommutative graphs have anticliques.
Complexity is a fundamental concept underlying statistical learning theory that aims to inform generalization performance. Parameter count, while successful in low-dimensional settings, is not well-justified for overparameterized settings when the number of parameters is more than the number of training samples. We revisit complexity measures based on Rissanen's principle of minimum description length (MDL) and define a novel MDL-based complexity (MDL-COMP) that remains valid for overparameterized models. MDL-COMP is defined via an optimality criterion over the encodings induced by a good Ridge estimator class. We provide an extensive theoretical characterization of MDL-COMP for linear models and kernel methods and show that it is not just a function of parameter count, but rather a function of the singular values of the design or the kernel matrix and the signal-to-noise ratio. For a linear model with $n$ observations, $d$ parameters, and i.i.d. Gaussian predictors, MDL-COMP scales linearly with $d$ when $d<n$, but the scaling is exponentially smaller -- $\log d$ for $d>n$. For kernel methods, we show that MDL-COMP informs minimax in-sample error, and can decrease as the dimensionality of the input increases. We also prove that MDL-COMP upper bounds the in-sample mean squared error (MSE). Via an array of simulations and real-data experiments, we show that a data-driven Prac-MDL-COMP informs hyper-parameter tuning for optimizing test MSE with ridge regression in limited data settings, sometimes improving upon cross-validation and (always) saving computational costs. Finally, our findings also suggest that the recently observed double decent phenomenons in overparameterized models might be a consequence of the choice of non-ideal estimators.
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