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A central task in knowledge compilation is to compile a CNF-SAT instance into a succinct representation format that allows efficient operations such as testing satisfiability, counting, or enumerating all solutions. Useful representation formats studied in this area range from ordered binary decision diagrams (OBDDs) to circuits in decomposable negation normal form (DNNFs). While it is known that there exist CNF formulas that require exponential size representations, the situation is less well studied for other types of constraints than Boolean disjunctive clauses. The constraint satisfaction problem (CSP) is a powerful framework that generalizes CNF-SAT by allowing arbitrary sets of constraints over any finite domain. The main goal of our work is to understand for which type of constraints (also called the constraint language) it is possible to efficiently compute representations of polynomial size. We answer this question completely and prove two tight characterizations of efficiently compilable constraint languages, depending on whether target format is structured. We first identify the combinatorial property of ``strong blockwise decomposability'' and show that if a constraint language has this property, we can compute DNNF representations of linear size. For all other constraint languages we construct families of CSP-instances that provably require DNNFs of exponential size. For a subclass of ``strong uniformly blockwise decomposable'' constraint languages we obtain a similar dichotomy for structured DNNFs. In fact, strong (uniform) blockwise decomposability even allows efficient compilation into multi-valued analogs of OBDDs and FBDDs, respectively. Thus, we get complete characterizations for all knowledge compilation classes between O(B)DDs and DNNFs.

The spread of an infection, a contagion, meme, emotion, message and various other spreadable objects have been discussed in several works. Burning and firefighting have been discussed in particular on static graphs. Graph burning simulates the notion of the spread of "fire" throughout a graph (plus, one unburned node burned at each time-step); graph firefighting simulates the defending of nodes by placing firefighters on the nodes which have not been already burned while the fire is being spread (started by only a single fire source). This article studies a combination of firefighting and burning on a graph class which is a variation (generalization) of temporal graphs. Nodes can be infected from "outside" a network. We present a notion of both upgrading (of unburned nodes, similar to firefighting) and repairing (of infected nodes). The nodes which are burned, firefighted, or repaired are chosen probabilistically. So a variable amount of nodes are allowed to be infected, upgraded and repaired in each time step. In the model presented in this article, both burning and firefighting proceed concurrently, we introduce such a system to enable the community to study the notion of spread of an infection and the notion of upgrade/repair against each other. The graph class that we study (on which, these processes are simulated) is a variation of temporal graph class in which at each time-step, probabilistically, a communication takes place (iff an edge exists in that time step). In addition, a node can be "worn out" and thus can be removed from the network, and a new healthy node can be added to the network as well. This class of graphs enables systems with high complexity to be able to be simulated and studied.

The trace plot is seldom used in meta-analysis, yet it is a very informative plot. In this article we define and illustrate what the trace plot is, and discuss why it is important. The Bayesian version of the plot combines the posterior density of tau, the between-study standard deviation, and the shrunken estimates of the study effects as a function of tau. With a small or moderate number of studies, tau is not estimated with much precision, and parameter estimates and shrunken study effect estimates can vary widely depending on the correct value of tau. The trace plot allows visualization of the sensitivity to tau along with a plot that shows which values of tau are plausible and which are implausible. A comparable frequentist or empirical Bayes version provides similar results. The concepts are illustrated using examples in meta-analysis and meta-regression; implementaton in R is facilitated in a Bayesian or frequentist framework using the bayesmeta and metafor packages, respectively.

Orthogonal meta-learners, such as DR-learner, R-learner and IF-learner, are increasingly used to estimate conditional average treatment effects. They improve convergence rates relative to na\"{\i}ve meta-learners (e.g., T-, S- and X-learner) through de-biasing procedures that involve applying standard learners to specifically transformed outcome data. This leads them to disregard the possibly constrained outcome space, which can be particularly problematic for dichotomous outcomes: these typically get transformed to values that are no longer constrained to the unit interval, making it difficult for standard learners to guarantee predictions within the unit interval. To address this, we construct orthogonal meta-learners for the prediction of counterfactual outcomes which respect the outcome space. As such, the obtained i-learner or imputation-learner is more generally expected to outperform existing learners, even when the outcome is unconstrained, as we confirm empirically in simulation studies and an analysis of critical care data. Our development also sheds broader light onto the construction of orthogonal learners for other estimands.

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are popular for data-analysis in almost all quantitative sciences, but the choice of likelihood family and link function is often difficult. This motivates the search for likelihoods and links that minimize the impact of potential misspecification. We perform a large-scale simulation study on double-bounded and lower-bounded response data where we systematically vary both true and assumed likelihoods and links. In contrast to previous studies, we also study posterior calibration and uncertainty metrics in addition to point-estimate accuracy. Our results indicate that certain likelihoods and links can be remarkably robust to misspecification, performing almost on par with their respective true counterparts. Additionally, normal likelihood models with identity link (i.e., linear regression) often achieve calibration comparable to the more structurally faithful alternatives, at least in the studied scenarios. On the basis of our findings, we provide practical suggestions for robust likelihood and link choices in GLMs.

In this paper we introduce a multilevel Picard approximation algorithm for general semilinear parabolic PDEs with gradient-dependent nonlinearities whose coefficient functions do not need to be constant. We also provide a full convergence and complexity analysis of our algorithm. To obtain our main results, we consider a particular stochastic fixed-point equation (SFPE) motivated by the Feynman-Kac representation and the Bismut-Elworthy-Li formula. We show that the PDE under consideration has a unique viscosity solution which coincides with the first component of the unique solution of the stochastic fixed-point equation. Moreover, the gradient of the unique viscosity solution of the PDE exists and coincides with the second component of the unique solution of the stochastic fixed-point equation.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular class of Bayesian nonparametric models, but its training can be computationally burdensome for massive training datasets. While there has been notable work on scaling up these models for big data, existing methods typically rely on a stationary GP assumption for approximation, and can thus perform poorly when the underlying response surface is non-stationary, i.e., it has some regions of rapid change and other regions with little change. Such non-stationarity is, however, ubiquitous in real-world problems, including our motivating application for surrogate modeling of computer experiments. We thus propose a new Product of Sparse GP (ProSpar-GP) method for scalable GP modeling with massive non-stationary data. The ProSpar-GP makes use of a carefully-constructed product-of-experts formulation of sparse GP experts, where different experts are placed within local regions of non-stationarity. These GP experts are fit via a novel variational inference approach, which capitalizes on mini-batching and GPU acceleration for efficient optimization of inducing points and length-scale parameters for each expert. We further show that the ProSpar-GP is Kolmogorov-consistent, in that its generative distribution defines a valid stochastic process over the prediction space; such a property provides essential stability for variational inference, particularly in the presence of non-stationarity. We then demonstrate the improved performance of the ProSpar-GP over the state-of-the-art, in a suite of numerical experiments and an application for surrogate modeling of a satellite drag simulator.

A fundamental theme in automata theory is regular languages of words and trees, and their many equivalent definitions. Salvati has proposed a generalization to regular languages of simply typed $\lambda$-terms, defined using denotational semantics in finite sets. We provide here some evidence for its robustness. First, we give an equivalent syntactic characterization that naturally extends the seminal work of Hillebrand and Kanellakis connecting regular languages of words and syntactic $\lambda$-definability. Second, we exhibit a class of categorical models of the simply typed $\lambda$-calculus, which we call finitely pointable, and we show that, when used in Salvati's definition, they all recognize exactly the same class of languages of $\lambda$-terms as the category of finite sets does. The proofs of these two results rely on logical relations and can be seen as instances of a more general construction of a categorical nature, inspired by previous categorical accounts of logical relations using the gluing construction.

We propose a novel and simple spectral method based on the semi-discrete Fourier transforms to discretize the fractional Laplacian $(-\Delta)^\frac{\alpha}{2}$. Numerical analysis and experiments are provided to study its performance. Our method has the same symbol $|\xi|^\alpha$ as the fractional Laplacian $(-\Delta)^\frac{\alpha}{2}$ at the discrete level, and thus it can be viewed as the exact discrete analogue of the fractional Laplacian. This {\it unique feature} distinguishes our method from other existing methods for the fractional Laplacian. Note that our method is different from the Fourier pseudospectral methods in the literature, which are usually limited to periodic boundary conditions (see Remark \ref{remark0}). Numerical analysis shows that our method can achieve a spectral accuracy. The stability and convergence of our method in solving the fractional Poisson equations were analyzed. Our scheme yields a multilevel Toeplitz stiffness matrix, and thus fast algorithms can be developed for efficient matrix-vector products. The computational complexity is ${\mathcal O}(2N\log(2N))$, and the memory storage is ${\mathcal O}(N)$ with $N$ the total number of points. Extensive numerical experiments verify our analytical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in solving various problems.

It has been classically conjectured that the brain assigns probabilistic models to sequences of stimuli. An important issue associated with this conjecture is the identification of the classes of models used by the brain to perform this task. We address this issue by using a new clustering procedure for sets of electroencephalographic (EEG) data recorded from participants exposed to a sequence of auditory stimuli generated by a stochastic chain. This clustering procedure indicates that the brain uses renewal points in the stochastic sequence of auditory stimuli in order to build a model.