The problem of covariance estimation for replicated surface-valued processes is examined from the functional data analysis perspective. Considerations of statistical and computational efficiency often compel the use of separability of the covariance, even though the assumption may fail in practice. We consider a setting where the covariance structure may fail to be separable locally -- either due to noise contamination or due to the presence of a~non-separable short-range dependent signal component. That is, the covariance is an additive perturbation of a separable component by a~non-separable but banded component. We introduce non-parametric estimators hinging on the novel concept of shifted partial tracing, enabling computationally efficient estimation of the model under dense observation. Due to the denoising properties of shifted partial tracing, our methods are shown to yield consistent estimators even under noisy discrete observation, without the need for smoothing. Further to deriving the convergence rates and limit theorems, we also show that the implementation of our estimators, including prediction, comes at no computational overhead relative to a separable model. Finally, we demonstrate empirical performance and computational feasibility of our methods in an extensive simulation study and on a real data set.
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We present a framework for performing regression when both covariate and response are probability distributions on a compact interval $\Omega\subset\mathbb{R}$. Our regression model is based on the theory of optimal transportation and links the conditional Fr\'echet mean of the response distribution to the covariate distribution via an optimal transport map. We define a Fr\'echet-least-squares estimator of this regression map, and establish its consistency and rate of convergence to the true map, under both full and partial observation of the regression pairs. Computation of the estimator is shown to reduce to an isotonic regression problem, and thus our regression model can be implemented with ease. We illustrate our methodology using real and simulated data.
In the field of finance, insurance, and system reliability, etc., it is often of interest to measure the dependence among variables by modeling a multivariate distribution using a copula. The copula models with parametric assumptions are easy to estimate but can be highly biased when such assumptions are false, while the empirical copulas are non-smooth and often not genuine copula making the inference about dependence challenging in practice. As a compromise, the empirical Bernstein copula provides a smooth estimator but the estimation of tuning parameters remains elusive. In this paper, by using the so-called empirical checkerboard copula we build a hierarchical empirical Bayes model that enables the estimation of a smooth copula function for arbitrary dimensions. The proposed estimator based on the multivariate Bernstein polynomials is itself a genuine copula and the selection of its dimension-varying degrees is data-dependent. We also show that the proposed copula estimator provides a more accurate estimate of several multivariate dependence measures which can be obtained in closed form. We investigate the asymptotic and finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator and compare it with some nonparametric estimators through simulation studies. An application to portfolio risk management is presented along with a quantification of estimation uncertainty.
In this work, we introduce a new and efficient solution approach for the problem of decision making under uncertainty, which can be formulated as decision making in a belief space, over a possibly high-dimensional state space. Typically, to solve a decision problem, one should identify the optimal action from a set of candidates, according to some objective. We claim that one can often generate and solve an analogous yet simplified decision problem, which can be solved more efficiently. A wise simplification method can lead to the same action selection, or one for which the maximal loss in optimality can be guaranteed. Furthermore, such simplification is separated from the state inference, and does not compromise its accuracy, as the selected action would finally be applied on the original state. First, we present the concept for general decision problems, and provide a theoretical framework for a coherent formulation of the approach. We then practically apply these ideas to decision problems in the belief space, which can be simplified by considering a sparse approximation of their initial belief. The scalable belief sparsification algorithm we provide is able to yield solutions which are guaranteed to be consistent with the original problem. We demonstrate the benefits of the approach in the solution of a realistic active-SLAM problem, and manage to significantly reduce computation time, with no loss in the quality of solution. This work is both fundamental and practical, and holds numerous possible extensions.
In this paper we study nonparametric estimators of copulas and copula densities. We first focus our study on a density copula estimator based on a polynomial orthogonal projection of the joint density. A new copula estimator is then deduced. Its asymptotic properties are studied: we provide a large functional class for which this construction is optimal in the minimax and maxiset sense and we propose a method selection for the smoothing parameter. An intensive simulation study shows the very good performance of both copulas and copula densities estimators which we compare to a large panel of competitors. A real dataset in actuarial science illustrates this approach.
The noncentral Wishart distribution has become more mainstream in statistics as the prevalence of applications involving sample covariances with underlying multivariate Gaussian populations as dramatically increased since the advent of computers. Multiple sources in the literature deal with local approximations of the noncentral Wishart distribution with respect to its central counterpart. However, no source has yet developed explicit local approximations for the (central) Wishart distribution in terms of a normal analogue, which is important since Gaussian distributions are at the heart of the asymptotic theory for many statistical methods. In this paper, we prove a precise asymptotic expansion for the ratio of the Wishart density to the symmetric matrix-variate normal density with the same mean and covariances. The result is then used to derive an upper bound on the total variation between the corresponding probability measures and to find the pointwise variance of a new density estimator on the space of positive definite matrices with a Wishart asymmetric kernel. For the sake of completeness, we also find expressions for the pointwise bias of our new estimator, the pointwise variance as we move towards the boundary of its support, the mean squared error, the mean integrated squared error away from the boundary, and we prove its asymptotic normality.
Recent advances at the intersection of dense large graph limits and mean field games have begun to enable the scalable analysis of a broad class of dynamical sequential games with large numbers of agents. So far, results have been largely limited to graphon mean field systems with continuous-time diffusive or jump dynamics, typically without control and with little focus on computational methods. We propose a novel discrete-time formulation for graphon mean field games as the limit of non-linear dense graph Markov games with weak interaction. On the theoretical side, we give extensive and rigorous existence and approximation properties of the graphon mean field solution in sufficiently large systems. On the practical side, we provide general learning schemes for graphon mean field equilibria by either introducing agent equivalence classes or reformulating the graphon mean field system as a classical mean field system. By repeatedly finding a regularized optimal control solution and its generated mean field, we successfully obtain plausible approximate Nash equilibria in otherwise infeasible large dense graph games with many agents. Empirically, we are able to demonstrate on a number of examples that the finite-agent behavior comes increasingly close to the mean field behavior for our computed equilibria as the graph or system size grows, verifying our theory. More generally, we successfully apply policy gradient reinforcement learning in conjunction with sequential Monte Carlo methods.
The min-entropy is a widely used metric to quantify the randomness of generated random numbers, which measures the difficulty of guessing the most likely output. It is difficult to accurately estimate the min-entropy of a non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) source. Hence, NIST Special Publication (SP) 800-90B adopts ten different min-entropy estimators and then conservatively selects the minimum value among ten min-entropy estimates. Among these estimators, the longest repeated substring (LRS) estimator estimates the collision entropy instead of the min-entropy by counting the number of repeated substrings. Since the collision entropy is an upper bound on the min-entropy, the LRS estimator inherently provides \emph{overestimated} outputs. In this paper, we propose two techniques to estimate the min-entropy of a non-IID source accurately. The first technique resolves the overestimation problem by translating the collision entropy into the min-entropy. Next, we generalize the LRS estimator by adopting the general R{\'{e}}nyi entropy instead of the collision entropy (i.e., R{\'{e}}nyi entropy of order two). We show that adopting a higher order can reduce the variance of min-entropy estimates. By integrating these techniques, we propose a generalized LRS estimator that effectively resolves the overestimation problem and provides stable min-entropy estimates. Theoretical analysis and empirical results support that the proposed generalized LRS estimator improves the estimation accuracy significantly, which makes it an appealing alternative to the LRS estimator.
Time-to-event endpoints show an increasing popularity in phase II cancer trials. The standard statistical tool for such one-armed survival trials is the one-sample log-rank test. Its distributional properties are commonly derived in the large sample limit. It is however known from the literature, that the asymptotical approximations suffer when sample size is small. There have already been several attempts to address this problem. While some approaches do not allow easy power and sample size calculations, others lack a clear theoretical motivation and require further considerations. The problem itself can partly be attributed to the dependence of the compensated counting process and its variance estimator. For this purpose, we suggest a variance estimator which is uncorrelated to the compensated counting process. Moreover, this and other present approaches to variance estimation are covered as special cases by our general framework. For practical application, we provide sample size and power calculations for any approach fitting into this framework. Finally, we use simulations and real world data to study the empirical type I error and power performance of our methodology as compared to standard approaches.
One major problem in black-box adversarial attacks is the high query complexity in the hard-label attack setting, where only the top-1 predicted label is available. In this paper, we propose a novel geometric-based approach called Tangent Attack (TA), which identifies an optimal tangent point of a virtual hemisphere located on the decision boundary to reduce the distortion of the attack. Assuming the decision boundary is locally flat, we theoretically prove that the minimum $\ell_2$ distortion can be obtained by reaching the decision boundary along the tangent line passing through such tangent point in each iteration. To improve the robustness of our method, we further propose a generalized method which replaces the hemisphere with a semi-ellipsoid to adapt to curved decision boundaries. Our approach is free of hyperparameters and pre-training. Extensive experiments conducted on the ImageNet and CIFAR-10 datasets demonstrate that our approach can consume only a small number of queries to achieve the low-magnitude distortion. The implementation source code is released online at //github.com/machanic/TangentAttack.
Many problems on signal processing reduce to nonparametric function estimation. We propose a new methodology, piecewise convex fitting (PCF), and give a two-stage adaptive estimate. In the first stage, the number and location of the change points is estimated using strong smoothing. In the second stage, a constrained smoothing spline fit is performed with the smoothing level chosen to minimize the MSE. The imposed constraint is that a single change point occurs in a region about each empirical change point of the first-stage estimate. This constraint is equivalent to requiring that the third derivative of the second-stage estimate has a single sign in a small neighborhood about each first-stage change point. We sketch how PCF may be applied to signal recovery, instantaneous frequency estimation, surface reconstruction, image segmentation, spectral estimation and multivariate adaptive regression.
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