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Within the next decade the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is due to be launched, providing the opportunity to extract physics from stellar objects and systems, such as \textit{Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals}, (EMRIs) otherwise undetectable to ground based interferometers and Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTA). Unlike previous sources detected by the currently available observational methods, these sources can \textit{only} be simulated using an accurate computation of the gravitational self-force. Whereas the field has seen outstanding progress in the frequency domain, metric reconstruction and self-force calculations are still an open challenge in the time domain. Such computations would not only further corroborate frequency domain calculations and models, but also allow for full self-consistent evolution of the orbit under the effect of the self-force. Given we have \textit{a priori} information about the local structure of the discontinuity at the particle, we will show how to construct discontinuous spatial and temporal discretisations by operating on discontinuous Lagrange and Hermite interpolation formulae and hence recover higher order accuracy. In this work we demonstrate how this technique in conjunction with well-suited gauge choice (hyperboloidal slicing) and numerical (discontinuous collocation with time symmetric) methods can provide a relatively simple method of lines numerical algorithm to the problem. This is the first of a series of papers studying the behaviour of a point-particle prescribing circular geodesic motion in Schwarzschild in the \textit{time domain}. In this work we describe the numerical machinery necessary for these computations and show not only our work is capable of highly accurate flux radiation measurements but it also shows suitability for evaluation of the necessary field and it's derivatives at the particle limit.

We study the problem of sequential prediction in the stochastic setting with an adversary that is allowed to inject clean-label adversarial (or out-of-distribution) examples. Algorithms designed to handle purely stochastic data tend to fail in the presence of such adversarial examples, often leading to erroneous predictions. This is undesirable in many high-stakes applications such as medical recommendations, where abstaining from predictions on adversarial examples is preferable to misclassification. On the other hand, assuming fully adversarial data leads to very pessimistic bounds that are often vacuous in practice. To capture this motivation, we propose a new model of sequential prediction that sits between the purely stochastic and fully adversarial settings by allowing the learner to abstain from making a prediction at no cost on adversarial examples. Assuming access to the marginal distribution on the non-adversarial examples, we design a learner whose error scales with the VC dimension (mirroring the stochastic setting) of the hypothesis class, as opposed to the Littlestone dimension which characterizes the fully adversarial setting. Furthermore, we design a learner for VC dimension~1 classes, which works even in the absence of access to the marginal distribution. Our key technical contribution is a novel measure for quantifying uncertainty for learning VC classes, which may be of independent interest.

The focus of precision medicine is on decision support, often in the form of dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs), which are sequences of decision rules. At each decision point, the decision rules determine the next treatment according to the patient's baseline characteristics, the information on treatments and responses accrued by that point, and the patient's current health status, including symptom severity and other measures. However, DTR estimation with ordinal outcomes is rarely studied, and rarer still in the context of interference - where one patient's treatment may affect another's outcome. In this paper, we introduce the proposed weighted proportional odds model (WPOM): a regression-based, doubly-robust approach to single-stage DTR estimation for ordinal outcomes. This method also accounts for the possibility of interference between individuals sharing a household through the use of covariate balancing weights derived from joint propensity scores. Examining different types of balancing weights, we verify the double robustness of WPOM with our adjusted weights via simulation studies. We further extend WPOM to multi-stage DTR estimation with household interference. Lastly, we demonstrate our proposed methodology in the analysis of longitudinal survey data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study, which motivates this work.

A lattice of integers is the collection of all linear combinations of a set of vectors for which all entries of the vectors are integers and all coefficients in the linear combinations are also integers. Lattice reduction refers to the problem of finding a set of vectors in a given lattice such that the collection of all integer linear combinations of this subset is still the entire original lattice and so that the Euclidean norms of the subset are reduced. The present paper proposes simple, efficient iterations for lattice reduction which are guaranteed to reduce the Euclidean norms of the basis vectors (the vectors in the subset) monotonically during every iteration. Each iteration selects the basis vector for which projecting off (with integer coefficients) the components of the other basis vectors along the selected vector minimizes the Euclidean norms of the reduced basis vectors. Each iteration projects off the components along the selected basis vector and efficiently updates all information required for the next iteration to select its best basis vector and perform the associated projections.

Acquiring properly annotated data is expensive in the medical field as it requires experts, time-consuming protocols, and rigorous validation. Active learning attempts to minimize the need for large annotated samples by actively sampling the most informative examples for annotation. These examples contribute significantly to improving the performance of supervised machine learning models, and thus, active learning can play an essential role in selecting the most appropriate information in deep learning-based diagnosis, clinical assessments, and treatment planning. Although some existing works have proposed methods for sampling the best examples for annotation in medical image analysis, they are not task-agnostic and do not use multimodal auxiliary information in the sampler, which has the potential to increase robustness. Therefore, in this work, we propose a Multimodal Variational Adversarial Active Learning (M-VAAL) method that uses auxiliary information from additional modalities to enhance the active sampling. We applied our method to two datasets: i) brain tumor segmentation and multi-label classification using the BraTS2018 dataset, and ii) chest X-ray image classification using the COVID-QU-Ex dataset. Our results show a promising direction toward data-efficient learning under limited annotations.

Quantiles and expectiles, which are two important concepts and tools in tail risk measurements, can be regarded as an extension of median and mean, respectively. Both of these tail risk measurers can actually be embedded in a common framework of $L_p$ optimization with the absolute loss function ($p=1$) and quadratic loss function ($p=2$), respectively. When 0-1 loss function is frequently used in statistics, machine learning and decision theory, this paper introduces an 0-1 loss function based $L_0$ optimisation problem for tail risk measure and names its solution as modile, which can be regarded as an extension of mode. Mode, as another measure of central tendency, is more robust than expectiles with outliers and easy to compute than quantiles. However, mode based extension for tail risk measure is new. This paper shows that the proposed modiles are not only more conservative than quantiles and expectiles for skewed and heavy-tailed distributions, but also providing or including the unique interpretation of these measures. Further, the modiles can be regarded as a type of generalized quantiles and doubly truncated tail measure whcih have recently attracted a lot of attention in the literature. The asymptotic properties of the corresponding sample-based estimators of modiles are provided, which, together with numerical analysis results, show that the proposed modiles are promising for tail measurement.

Modelling and forecasting real-life human behaviour using online social media is an active endeavour of interest in politics, government, academia, and industry. Since its creation in 2006, Twitter has been proposed as a potential laboratory that could be used to gauge and predict social behaviour. During the last decade, the user base of Twitter has been growing and becoming more representative of the general population. Here we analyse this user base in the context of the 2021 Mexican Legislative Election. To do so, we use a dataset of 15 million election-related tweets in the six months preceding election day. We explore different election models that assign political preference to either the ruling parties or the opposition. We find that models using data with geographical attributes determine the results of the election with better precision and accuracy than conventional polling methods. These results demonstrate that analysis of public online data can outperform conventional polling methods, and that political analysis and general forecasting would likely benefit from incorporating such data in the immediate future. Moreover, the same Twitter dataset with geographical attributes is positively correlated with results from official census data on population and internet usage in Mexico. These findings suggest that we have reached a period in time when online activity, appropriately curated, can provide an accurate representation of offline behaviour.

In this manuscript, we discuss the substantial importance of Bayesian reasoning in Social Science research. Particularly, we focus on foundational elements to fit models under the Bayesian paradigm. We aim to offer a frame of reference for a broad audience, not necessarily with specialized knowledge in Bayesian statistics, yet having interest in incorporating this kind of methods in studying social phenomena. We illustrate Bayesian methods through case studies regarding political surveys, population dynamics, and standardized educational testing. Specifically, we provide technical details on specific topics such as conjugate and non-conjugate modeling, hierarchical modeling, Bayesian computation, goodness of fit, and model testing.

Detecting duplicate patient participation in clinical trials is a major challenge because repeated patients can undermine the credibility and accuracy of the trial's findings and result in significant health and financial risks. Developing accurate automated speaker verification (ASV) models is crucial to verify the identity of enrolled individuals and remove duplicates, but the size and quality of data influence ASV performance. However, there has been limited investigation into the factors that can affect ASV capabilities in clinical environments. In this paper, we bridge the gap by conducting analysis of how participant demographic characteristics, audio quality criteria, and severity level of Alzheimer's disease (AD) impact the performance of ASV utilizing a dataset of speech recordings from 659 participants with varying levels of AD, obtained through multiple speech tasks. Our results indicate that ASV performance: 1) is slightly better on male speakers than on female speakers; 2) degrades for individuals who are above 70 years old; 3) is comparatively better for non-native English speakers than for native English speakers; 4) is negatively affected by clinician interference, noisy background, and unclear participant speech; 5) tends to decrease with an increase in the severity level of AD. Our study finds that voice biometrics raise fairness concerns as certain subgroups exhibit different ASV performances owing to their inherent voice characteristics. Moreover, the performance of ASV is influenced by the quality of speech recordings, which underscores the importance of improving the data collection settings in clinical trials.

We propose a novel approach to multimodal sentiment analysis using deep neural networks combining visual analysis and natural language processing. Our goal is different than the standard sentiment analysis goal of predicting whether a sentence expresses positive or negative sentiment; instead, we aim to infer the latent emotional state of the user. Thus, we focus on predicting the emotion word tags attached by users to their Tumblr posts, treating these as "self-reported emotions." We demonstrate that our multimodal model combining both text and image features outperforms separate models based solely on either images or text. Our model's results are interpretable, automatically yielding sensible word lists associated with emotions. We explore the structure of emotions implied by our model and compare it to what has been posited in the psychology literature, and validate our model on a set of images that have been used in psychology studies. Finally, our work also provides a useful tool for the growing academic study of images - both photographs and memes - on social networks.