Regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) have become one of the most widely-used quasi-experimental tools for causal inference. A crucial assumption on which they rely is that the running variable cannot be manipulated -- an assumption frequently violated in practice, jeopardizing point identification. In this paper, we introduce a novel method that provide partial identification bounds on the causal parameter of interest in sharp and fuzzy RDDs. The method first estimates the number of manipulators in the sample using a log-concavity assumption on the un-manipulated density of the running variable. It then derives best- and worst-case bounds when we delete that number of points from the data, along with fast computational methods to obtain them. We apply this procedure to a dataset of blood donations from the Abu Dhabi blood bank to obtain the causal effect of donor deferral on future volunteering behavior. We find that, despite significant manipulation in the data, we are able to detect causal effects where traditional methods, such as donut-hole RDDs, fail.
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Most existing trackers are based on using a classifier and multi-scale estimation to estimate the target state. Consequently, and as expected, trackers have become more stable while tracking accuracy has stagnated. While trackers adopt a maximum overlap method based on an intersection-over-union (IoU) loss to mitigate this problem, there are defects in the IoU loss itself, that make it impossible to continue to optimize the objective function when a given bounding box is completely contained within/without another bounding box; this makes it very challenging to accurately estimate the target state. Accordingly, in this paper, we address the above-mentioned problem by proposing a novel tracking method based on a distance-IoU (DIoU) loss, such that the proposed tracker consists of target estimation and target classification. The target estimation part is trained to predict the DIoU score between the target ground-truth bounding-box and the estimated bounding-box. The DIoU loss can maintain the advantage provided by the IoU loss while minimizing the distance between the center points of two bounding boxes, thereby making the target estimation more accurate. Moreover, we introduce a classification part that is trained online and optimized with a Conjugate-Gradient-based strategy to guarantee real-time tracking speed. Comprehensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves competitive tracking accuracy when compared to state-of-the-art trackers while with a real-time tracking speed.
Logistic Bandits have recently undergone careful scrutiny by virtue of their combined theoretical and practical relevance. This research effort delivered statistically efficient algorithms, improving the regret of previous strategies by exponentially large factors. Such algorithms are however strikingly costly as they require $\Omega(t)$ operations at each round. On the other hand, a different line of research focused on computational efficiency ($\mathcal{O}(1)$ per-round cost), but at the cost of letting go of the aforementioned exponential improvements. Obtaining the best of both world is unfortunately not a matter of marrying both approaches. Instead we introduce a new learning procedure for Logistic Bandits. It yields confidence sets which sufficient statistics can be easily maintained online without sacrificing statistical tightness. Combined with efficient planning mechanisms we design fast algorithms which regret performance still match the problem-dependent lower-bound of Abeille et al. (2021). To the best of our knowledge, those are the first Logistic Bandit algorithms that simultaneously enjoy statistical and computational efficiency.
In this paper, we present three estimators of the ROC curve when missing observations arise among the biomarkers. Two of the procedures assume that we have covariates that allow to estimate the propensity and the estimators are obtained using an inverse probability weighting method or a smoothed version of it. The other one assumes that the covariates are related to the biomarkers through a regression model which enables us to construct convolution--based estimators of the distribution and quantile functions. Consistency results are obtained under mild conditions. Through a numerical study we evaluate the finite sample performance of the different proposals. A real data set is also analysed.
Multicopters are among the most versatile mobile robots. Their applications range from inspection and mapping tasks to providing vital reconnaissance in disaster zones and to package delivery. The range, endurance, and speed a multirotor vehicle can achieve while performing its task is a decisive factor not only for vehicle design and mission planning, but also for policy makers deciding on the rules and regulations for aerial robots. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this work proposes the first approach to estimate the range, endurance, and optimal flight speed for a wide variety of multicopters. This advance is made possible by combining a state-of-the-art first-principles aerodynamic multicopter model based on blade-element-momentum theory with an electric-motor model and a graybox battery model. This model predicts the cell voltage with only 1.3% relative error (43.1 mV), even if the battery is subjected to non-constant discharge rates. Our approach is validated with real-world experiments on a test bench as well as with flights at speeds up to 65 km/h in one of the world's largest motion-capture systems. We also present an accurate pen-and-paper algorithm to estimate the range, endurance and optimal speed of multicopters to help future researchers build drones with maximal range and endurance, ensuring that future multirotor vehicles are even more versatile.
Personalized decision-making, aiming to derive optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs) based on individual characteristics, has recently attracted increasing attention in many fields, such as medicine, social services, and economics. Current literature mainly focuses on estimating ITRs from a single source population. In real-world applications, the distribution of a target population can be different from that of the source population. Therefore, ITRs learned by existing methods may not generalize well to the target population. Due to privacy concerns and other practical issues, individual-level data from the target population is often not available, which makes ITR learning more challenging. We consider an ITR estimation problem where the source and target populations may be heterogeneous, individual data is available from the source population, and only the summary information of covariates, such as moments, is accessible from the target population. We develop a weighting framework that tailors an ITR for a given target population by leveraging the available summary statistics. Specifically, we propose a calibrated augmented inverse probability weighted estimator of the value function for the target population and estimate an optimal ITR by maximizing this estimator within a class of pre-specified ITRs. We show that the proposed calibrated estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal even with flexible semi/nonparametric models for nuisance function approximation, and the variance of the value estimator can be consistently estimated. We demonstrate the empirical performance of the proposed method using simulation studies and a real application to an eICU dataset as the source sample and a MIMIC-III dataset as the target sample.
Since the average treatment effect (ATE) measures the change in social welfare, even if positive, there is a risk of negative effect on, say, some 10% of the population. Assessing such risk is difficult, however, because any one individual treatment effect (ITE) is never observed so the 10% worst-affected cannot be identified, while distributional treatment effects only compare the first deciles within each treatment group, which does not correspond to any 10%-subpopulation. In this paper we consider how to nonetheless assess this important risk measure, formalized as the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of the ITE distribution. We leverage the availability of pre-treatment covariates and characterize the tightest-possible upper and lower bounds on ITE-CVaR given by the covariate-conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function. Some bounds can also be interpreted as summarizing a complex CATE function into a single metric and are of interest independently of being a bound. We then proceed to study how to estimate these bounds efficiently from data and construct confidence intervals. This is challenging even in randomized experiments as it requires understanding the distribution of the unknown CATE function, which can be very complex if we use rich covariates so as to best control for heterogeneity. We develop a debiasing method that overcomes this and prove it enjoys favorable statistical properties even when CATE and other nuisances are estimated by black-box machine learning or even inconsistently. Studying a hypothetical change to French job-search counseling services, our bounds and inference demonstrate a small social benefit entails a negative impact on a substantial subpopulation.
We consider the problem of Bayesian optimization of a one-dimensional Brownian motion in which the $T$ adaptively chosen observations are corrupted by Gaussian noise. We show that as the smallest possible expected cumulative regret and the smallest possible expected simple regret scale as $\Omega(\sigma\sqrt{T / \log (T)}) \cap \mathcal{O}(\sigma\sqrt{T} \cdot \log T)$ and $\Omega(\sigma / \sqrt{T \log (T)}) \cap \mathcal{O}(\sigma\log T / \sqrt{T})$ respectively, where $\sigma^2$ is the noise variance. Thus, our upper and lower bounds are tight up to a factor of $\mathcal{O}( (\log T)^{1.5} )$. The upper bound uses an algorithm based on confidence bounds and the Markov property of Brownian motion (among other useful properties), and the lower bound is based on a reduction to binary hypothesis testing.
We consider the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning and we show that an agent imbued with a risk-seeking utility function is able to explore efficiently, as measured by regret. The parameter that controls how risk-seeking the agent is can be optimized exactly, or annealed according to a schedule. We call the resulting algorithm K-learning and show that the corresponding K-values are optimistic for the expected Q-values at each state-action pair. The K-values induce a natural Boltzmann exploration policy for which the `temperature' parameter is equal to the risk-seeking parameter. This policy achieves an expected regret bound of $\tilde O(L^{3/2} \sqrt{S A T})$, where $L$ is the time horizon, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the total number of elapsed time-steps. This bound is only a factor of $L$ larger than the established lower bound. K-learning can be interpreted as mirror descent in the policy space, and it is similar to other well-known methods in the literature, including Q-learning, soft-Q-learning, and maximum entropy policy gradient, and is closely related to optimism and count based exploration methods. K-learning is simple to implement, as it only requires adding a bonus to the reward at each state-action and then solving a Bellman equation. We conclude with a numerical example demonstrating that K-learning is competitive with other state-of-the-art algorithms in practice.
Image segmentation is still an open problem especially when intensities of the interested objects are overlapped due to the presence of intensity inhomogeneity (also known as bias field). To segment images with intensity inhomogeneities, a bias correction embedded level set model is proposed where Inhomogeneities are Estimated by Orthogonal Primary Functions (IEOPF). In the proposed model, the smoothly varying bias is estimated by a linear combination of a given set of orthogonal primary functions. An inhomogeneous intensity clustering energy is then defined and membership functions of the clusters described by the level set function are introduced to rewrite the energy as a data term of the proposed model. Similar to popular level set methods, a regularization term and an arc length term are also included to regularize and smooth the level set function, respectively. The proposed model is then extended to multichannel and multiphase patterns to segment colourful images and images with multiple objects, respectively. It has been extensively tested on both synthetic and real images that are widely used in the literature and public BrainWeb and IBSR datasets. Experimental results and comparison with state-of-the-art methods demonstrate that advantages of the proposed model in terms of bias correction and segmentation accuracy.
In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.
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