Self-driving vehicles (SDVs) are becoming reality but still suffer from "long-tail" challenges during natural driving: the SDVs will continually encounter rare, safety-critical cases that may not be included in the dataset they were trained. Some safety-assurance planners solve this problem by being conservative in all possible cases, which may significantly affect driving mobility. To this end, this work proposes a method to automatically adjust the conservative level according to each case's "long-tail" rate, named dynamically conservative planner (DCP). We first define the "long-tail" rate as an SDV's confidence to pass a driving case. The rate indicates the probability of safe-critical events and is estimated using the statistics bootstrapped method with historical data. Then, a reinforcement learning-based planner is designed to contain candidate policies with different conservative levels. The final policy is optimized based on the estimated "long-tail" rate. In this way, the DCP is designed to automatically adjust to be more conservative in low-confidence "long-tail" cases while keeping efficient otherwise. The DCP is evaluated in the CARLA simulator using driving cases with "long-tail" distributed training data. The results show that the DCP can accurately estimate the "long-tail" rate to identify potential risks. Based on the rate, the DCP automatically avoids potential collisions in "long-tail" cases using conservative decisions while not affecting the average velocity in other typical cases. Thus, the DCP is safer and more efficient than the baselines with fixed conservative levels, e.g., an always conservative planner. This work provides a technique to guarantee SDV's performance in unexpected driving cases without resorting to a global conservative setting, which contributes to solving the "long-tail" problem practically.
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The planted coloring problem is a prototypical inference problem for which thresholds for Bayes optimal algorithms, like Belief Propagation (BP), can be computed analytically. In this paper, we analyze the limits and performances of the Simulated Annealing (SA), a Monte Carlo-based algorithm that is more general and robust than BP, and thus of broader applicability. We show that SA is sub-optimal in the recovery of the planted solution because it gets attracted by glassy states that, instead, do not influence the BP algorithm. At variance with previous conjectures, we propose an analytic estimation for the SA algorithmic threshold by comparing the spinodal point of the paramagnetic phase and the dynamical critical temperature. This is a fundamental connection between thermodynamical phase transitions and out of equilibrium behavior of Glauber dynamics. We also study an improved version of SA, called replicated SA (RSA), where several weakly coupled replicas are cooled down together. We show numerical evidence that the algorithmic threshold for the RSA coincides with the Bayes optimal one. Finally, we develop an approximated analytical theory explaining the optimal performances of RSA and predicting the location of the transition towards the planted solution in the limit of a very large number of replicas. Our results for RSA support the idea that mismatching the parameters in the prior with respect to those of the generative model may produce an algorithm that is optimal and very robust.
Long-tailed recognition with imbalanced class distribution naturally emerges in practical machine learning applications. Existing methods such as data reweighing, resampling, and supervised contrastive learning enforce the class balance with a price of introducing imbalance between instances of head class and tail class, which may ignore the underlying rich semantic substructures of the former and exaggerate the biases in the latter. We overcome these drawbacks by a novel ``subclass-balancing contrastive learning (SBCL)'' approach that clusters each head class into multiple subclasses of similar sizes as the tail classes and enforce representations to capture the two-layer class hierarchy between the original classes and their subclasses. Since the clustering is conducted in the representation space and updated during the course of training, the subclass labels preserve the semantic substructures of head classes. Meanwhile, it does not overemphasize tail class samples, so each individual instance contribute to the representation learning equally. Hence, our method achieves both the instance- and subclass-balance, while the original class labels are also learned through contrastive learning among subclasses from different classes. We evaluate SBCL over a list of long-tailed benchmark datasets and it achieves the state-of-the-art performance. In addition, we present extensive analyses and ablation studies of SBCL to verify its advantages.
One of the most significant challenges in the field of deep learning and medical image segmentation is to determine an appropriate threshold for classifying each pixel. This threshold is a value above which the model's output is considered to belong to a specific class. Manual thresholding based on personal experience is error-prone and time-consuming, particularly for complex problems such as medical images. Traditional methods for thresholding are not effective for determining the threshold value for such problems. To tackle this challenge, automatic thresholding methods using deep learning have been proposed. However, the main issue with these methods is that they often determine the threshold value statically without considering changes in input data. Since input data can be dynamic and may change over time, threshold determination should be adaptive and consider input data and environmental conditions.
State estimation of robotic systems is essential to implementing feedback controllers which usually provide better robustness to modeling uncertainties than open-loop controllers. However, state estimation of soft robots is very challenging because soft robots have theoretically infinite degrees of freedom while existing sensors only provide a limited number of discrete measurements. In this paper, we design an observer for soft continuum robotic arms based on the well-known Cosserat rod theory which models continuum robotic arms by nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). The observer is able to estimate all the continuum (infinite-dimensional) robot states (poses, strains, and velocities) by only sensing the tip velocity of the continuum robot (and hence it is called a ``boundary'' observer). More importantly, the estimation error dynamics is formally proven to be locally input-to-state stable. The key idea is to inject sequential tip velocity measurements into the observer in a way that dissipates the energy of the estimation errors through the boundary. Furthermore, this boundary observer can be implemented by simply changing a boundary condition in any numerical solvers of Cosserat rod models. Extensive numerical studies are included and suggest that the domain of attraction is large and the observer is robust to uncertainties of tip velocity measurements and model parameters.
This paper presents new methods for analyzing and evaluating generalized plans that can solve broad classes of related planning problems. Although synthesis and learning of generalized plans has been a longstanding goal in AI, it remains challenging due to fundamental gaps in methods for analyzing the scope and utility of a given generalized plan. This paper addresses these gaps by developing a new conceptual framework along with proof techniques and algorithmic processes for assessing termination and goal-reachability related properties of generalized plans. We build upon classic results from graph theory to decompose generalized plans into smaller components that are then used to derive hierarchical termination arguments. These methods can be used to determine the utility of a given generalized plan, as well as to guide the synthesis and learning processes for generalized plans. We present theoretical as well as empirical results illustrating the scope of this new approach. Our analysis shows that this approach significantly extends the class of generalized plans that can be assessed automatically, thereby reducing barriers in the synthesis and learning of reliable generalized plans.
Data-Driven Chance-Constrained Multiple-Choice Knapsack Problem: Model, Algorithms, and Applications
The multiple-choice knapsack problem (MCKP) is a classic NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. Motivated by several significant practical applications, this work investigates a novel variant of MCKP called data-driven chance-constrained multiple-choice knapsack problem (DDCCMCKP), where the item weight is a random variable with unknown probability distribution. We first present the problem formulation of DDCCMCKP, and then establish two benchmark sets. The first set contains synthetic instances, and the second set is devised to simulate a real-world application scenario of a certain telecommunication company. To solve DDCCMCKP, we propose a data-driven adaptive local search (DDALS) algorithm. The main merit of DDALS lies in evaluating solutions with chance constraints by data-driven methods, under the condition of unknown distributions and only historical sample data being available. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and show that it is superior to other baselines. Additionally, ablation experiments confirm the necessity of each component in the algorithm. Our proposed algorithm can serve as the baseline for future research, and the code and benchmark sets will be open-sourced to further promote research on this challenging problem.
Catching high-speed targets in the flight is a complex and typical highly dynamic task. In this paper, we propose Catch Planner, a planning-with-decision scheme for catching. For sequential decision making, we propose a policy search method based on deep reinforcement learning. In order to make catching adaptive and flexible, we propose a trajectory optimization method to jointly optimize the highly coupled catching time and terminal state while considering the dynamic feasibility and safety. We also propose a flexible constraint transcription method to catch targets at any reasonable attitude and terminal position bias. The proposed Catch Planner provides a new paradigm for the combination of learning and planning and is integrated on the quadrotor designed by ourselves, which runs at 100hz on the onboard computer. Extensive experiments are carried out in real and simulated scenes to verify the robustness of the proposed method and its expansibility when facing a variety of high-speed flying targets.
To control the lower-limb exoskeleton robot effectively, it is essential to accurately recognize user status and environmental conditions. Previous studies have typically addressed these recognition challenges through independent models for each task, resulting in an inefficient model development process. In this study, we propose a Multitask learning approach that can address multiple recognition challenges simultaneously. This approach can enhance data efficiency by enabling knowledge sharing between each recognition model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using Gait phase recognition (GPR) and Terrain classification (TC) as examples, the most conventional recognition tasks in lower-limb exoskeleton robots. We first created a high-performing GPR model that achieved a Root mean square error (RMSE) value of 2.345 $\pm$ 0.08 and then utilized its knowledge-sharing backbone feature network to learn a TC model with an extremely limited dataset. Using a limited dataset for the TC model allows us to validate the data efficiency of our proposed Multitask learning approach. We compared the accuracy of the proposed TC model against other TC baseline models. The proposed model achieved 99.5 $\pm$ 0.044% accuracy with a limited dataset, outperforming other baseline models, demonstrating its effectiveness in terms of data efficiency. Future research will focus on extending the Multitask learning framework to encompass additional recognition tasks.
Cloud providers are adapting datacenter (DC) capacity to reduce carbon emissions. With hyperscale datacenters exceeding 100 MW individually, and in some grids exceeding 15% of power load, DC adaptation is large enough to harm power grid dynamics, increasing carbon emissions, power prices, or reduce grid reliability. To avoid harm, we explore coordination of DC capacity change varying scope in space and time. In space, coordination scope spans a single datacenter, a group of datacenters, and datacenters with the grid. In time, scope ranges from online to day-ahead. We also consider what DC and grid information is used (e.g. real-time and day-ahead average carbon, power price, and compute backlog). For example, in our proposed PlanShare scheme, each datacenter uses day-ahead information to create a capacity plan and shares it, allowing global grid optimization (over all loads, over entire day). We evaluate DC carbon emissions reduction. Results show that local coordination scope fails to reduce carbon emissions significantly (3.2%--5.4% reduction). Expanding coordination scope to a set of datacenters improves slightly (4.9%--7.3%). PlanShare, with grid-wide coordination and full-day capacity planning, performs the best. PlanShare reduces DC emissions by 11.6%--12.6%, 1.56x--1.26x better than the best local, online approach's results. PlanShare also achieves lower cost. We expect these advantages to increase as renewable generation in power grids increases. Further, a known full-day DC capacity plan provides a stable target for DC resource management.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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