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Generative diffusion models have achieved spectacular performance in many areas of generative modeling. While the fundamental ideas behind these models come from non-equilibrium physics, variational inference and stochastic calculus, in this paper we show that many aspects of these models can be understood using the tools of equilibrium statistical mechanics. Using this reformulation, we show that generative diffusion models undergo second-order phase transitions corresponding to symmetry breaking phenomena. We show that these phase-transitions are always in a mean-field universality class, as they are the result of a self-consistency condition in the generative dynamics. We argue that the critical instability that arises from the phase transitions lies at the heart of their generative capabilities, which are characterized by a set of mean field critical exponents. Furthermore, using the statistical physics of disordered systems, we show that memorization can be understood as a form of critical condensation corresponding to a disordered phase transition. Finally, we show that the dynamic equation of the generative process can be interpreted as a stochastic adiabatic transformation that minimizes the free energy while keeping the system in thermal equilibrium.

In logistic regression modeling, Firth's modified estimator is widely used to address the issue of data separation, which results in the nonexistence of the maximum likelihood estimate. Firth's modified estimator can be formulated as a penalized maximum likelihood estimator in which Jeffreys' prior is adopted as the penalty term. Despite its widespread use in practice, the formal verification of the corresponding estimate's existence has not been established. In this study, we establish the existence theorem of Firth's modified estimate in binomial logistic regression models, assuming only the full column rankness of the design matrix. We also discuss other binomial regression models obtained through alternating link functions and prove the existence of similar penalized maximum likelihood estimates for such models.

For regression model selection under the maximum likelihood framework, we study the likelihood ratio confidence region for the regression parameter vector of a full regression model. We show that, when the confidence level increases with the sample size at a certain speed, with probability tending to one, the confidence region contains only vectors representing models having all active variables, including the parameter vector of the true model. This result leads to a consistent model selection criterion with a sparse maximum likelihood interpretation and certain advantages over popular information criteria. It also provides a large-sample characterization of models of maximum likelihood at different model sizes which shows that, for selection consistency, it suffices to consider only this small set of models.

Scaling laws are useful guides for developing language models, but there are still gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime); however, in practice, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but ultimately models are compared based on downstream task performance. In this paper, we address both shortcomings. To do so, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we investigate scaling in the over-trained regime. We fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the number of model parameters and the ratio of training tokens to parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32$\times$ over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token run$\unicode{x2014}$each from experiments that take 300$\times$ less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance via a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models using experiments that take 20$\times$ less compute. Our experiments are available at //github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

We study strong approximation of scalar additive noise driven stochastic differential equations (SDEs) at time point $1$ in the case that the drift coefficient is bounded and has Sobolev regularity $s\in(0,1)$. Recently, it has been shown in [arXiv:2101.12185v2 (2022)] that for such SDEs the equidistant Euler approximation achieves an $L^2$-error rate of at least $(1+s)/2$, up to an arbitrary small $\varepsilon$, in terms of the number of evaluations of the driving Brownian motion $W$. In the present article we prove a matching lower error bound for $s\in(1/2,1)$. More precisely we show that, for every $s\in(1/2,1)$, the $L^2$-error rate $(1+s)/2$ can, up to a logarithmic term, not be improved in general by no numerical method based on finitely many evaluations of $W$ at fixed time points. Up to now, this result was known in the literature only for the cases $s=1/2-$ and $s=1-$. For the proof we employ the coupling of noise technique recently introduced in [arXiv:2010.00915 (2020)] to bound the $L^2$-error of an arbitrary approximation from below by the $L^2$-distance of two occupation time functionals provided by a specifically chosen drift coefficient with Sobolev regularity $s$ and two solutions of the corresponding SDE with coupled driving Brownian motions. For the analysis of the latter distance we employ a transformation of the original SDE to overcome the problem of correlated increments of the difference of the two coupled solutions, occupation time estimates to cope with the lack of regularity of the chosen drift coefficient around the point $0$ and scaling properties of the drift coefficient.

Curiosity-driven learning has shown significant positive effects on students' learning experiences and outcomes. But despite this importance, reports show that children lack this skill, especially in formal educational settings. To address this challenge, we propose an 8-session workshop that aims to enhance children's curiosity through training a set of specific metacognitive skills we hypothesize are involved in its process. Our workshop contains animated videos presenting declarative knowledge about curiosity and the said metacognitive skills as well as practice sessions to apply these skills during a reading-comprehension task, using a web platform designed for this study (e.g. expressing uncertainty, formulating questions, etc). We conduct a pilot study with 15 primary school students, aged between 8 and 10. Our first results show a positive impact on children's metacognitive efficiency and their ability to express their curiosity through question-asking behaviors.

In logistic regression modeling, Firth's modified estimator is widely used to address the issue of data separation, which results in the nonexistence of the maximum likelihood estimate. Firth's modified estimator can be formulated as a penalized maximum likelihood estimator in which Jeffreys' prior is adopted as the penalty term. Despite its widespread use in practice, the formal verification of the corresponding estimate's existence has not been established. In this study, we establish the existence theorem of Firth's modified estimate in binomial logistic regression models, assuming only the full column rankness of the design matrix. We also discuss multinomial logistic regression models. Unlike the binomial regression case, we show through an example that the Jeffreys-prior penalty term does not necessarily diverge to negative infinity as the parameter diverges.

Testing the equality of mean vectors across $g$ different groups plays an important role in many scientific fields. In regular frameworks, likelihood-based statistics under the normality assumption offer a general solution to this task. However, the accuracy of standard asymptotic results is not reliable when the dimension $p$ of the data is large relative to the sample size $n_i$ of each group. We propose here an exact directional test for the equality of $g$ normal mean vectors with identical unknown covariance matrix, provided that $\sum_{i=1}^g n_i \ge p+g+1$. In the case of two groups ($g=2$), the directional test is equivalent to the Hotelling's $T^2$ test. In the more general situation where the $g$ independent groups may have different unknown covariance matrices, although exactness does not hold, simulation studies show that the directional test is more accurate than most commonly used likelihood based solutions. Robustness of the directional approach and its competitors under deviation from multivariate normality is also numerically investigated.

We propose a new approach to the autoregressive spatial functional model, based on the notion of signature, which represents a function as an infinite series of its iterated integrals. It presents the advantage of being applicable to a wide range of processes. After having provided theoretical guarantees to the proposed model, we have shown in a simulation study and on a real data set that this new approach presents competitive performances compared to the traditional model.

The Bell regression model (BRM) is a statistical model that is often used in the analysis of count data that exhibits overdispersion. In this study, we propose a Bayesian analysis of the BRM and offer a new perspective on its application. Specifically, we introduce a G-prior distribution for Bayesian inference in BRM, in addition to a flat-normal prior distribution. To compare the performance of the proposed prior distributions, we conduct a simulation study and demonstrate that the G-prior distribution provides superior estimation results for the BRM. Furthermore, we apply the methodology to real data and compare the BRM to the Poisson regression model using various model selection criteria. Our results provide valuable insights into the use of Bayesian methods for estimation and inference of the BRM and highlight the importance of considering the choice of prior distribution in the analysis of count data.