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Sample selection models represent a common methodology for correcting bias induced by data missing not at random. It is well known that these models are not empirically identifiable without exclusion restrictions. In other words, some variables predictive of missingness do not affect the outcome model of interest. The drive to establish this requirement often leads to the inclusion of irrelevant variables in the model. A recent proposal uses adaptive LASSO to circumvent this problem, but its performance depends on the so-called covariance assumption, which can be violated in small to moderate samples. Additionally, there are no tools yet for post-selection inference for this model. To address these challenges, we propose two families of spike-and-slab priors to conduct Bayesian variable selection in sample selection models. These prior structures allow for constructing a Gibbs sampler with tractable conditionals, which is scalable to the dimensions of practical interest. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology through a simulation study and present a comparison against adaptive LASSO and stepwise selection. We also provide two applications using publicly available real data. An implementation and code to reproduce the results in this paper can be found at //github.com/adam-iqbal/selection-spike-slab

Influenced mixed moving average fields are a versatile modeling class for spatio-temporal data. However, their predictive distribution is not generally known. Under this modeling assumption, we define a novel spatio-temporal embedding and a theory-guided machine learning approach that employs a generalized Bayesian algorithm to make ensemble forecasts. We employ Lipschitz predictors and determine fixed-time and any-time PAC Bayesian bounds in the batch learning setting. Performing causal forecast is a highlight of our methodology as its potential application to data with spatial and temporal short and long-range dependence. We then test the performance of our learning methodology by using linear predictors and data sets simulated from a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Active learning can improve the efficiency of training prediction models by identifying the most informative new labels to acquire. However, non-response to label requests can impact active learning's effectiveness in real-world contexts. We conceptualise this degradation by considering the type of non-response present in the data, demonstrating that biased non-response is particularly detrimental to model performance. We argue that this sort of non-response is particularly likely in contexts where the labelling process, by nature, relies on user interactions. To mitigate the impact of biased non-response, we propose a cost-based correction to the sampling strategy--the Upper Confidence Bound of the Expected Utility (UCB-EU)--that can, plausibly, be applied to any active learning algorithm. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our method successfully reduces the harm from labelling non-response in many settings. However, we also characterise settings where the non-response bias in the annotations remains detrimental under UCB-EU for particular sampling methods and data generating processes. Finally, we evaluate our method on a real-world dataset from e-commerce platform Taobao. We show that UCB-EU yields substantial performance improvements to conversion models that are trained on clicked impressions. Most generally, this research serves to both better conceptualise the interplay between types of non-response and model improvements via active learning, and to provide a practical, easy to implement correction that helps mitigate model degradation.

In this paper, we propose a generic approach to perform global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for compartmental models based on continuous-time Markov chains (CTMC). This approach enables a complete GSA for epidemic models, in which not only the effects of uncertain parameters such as epidemic parameters (transmission rate, mean sojourn duration in compartments) are quantified, but also those of intrinsic randomness and interactions between the two. The main step in our approach is to build a deterministic representation of the underlying continuous-time Markov chain by controlling the latent variables modeling intrinsic randomness. Then, model output can be written as a deterministic function of both uncertain parameters and controlled latent variables, so that it becomes possible to compute standard variance-based sensitivity indices, e.g. the so-called Sobol' indices. However, different simulation algorithms lead to different representations. We exhibit in this work three different representations for CTMC stochastic compartmental models and discuss the results obtained by implementing and comparing GSAs based on each of these representations on a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic model.

Forecast combination involves using multiple forecasts to create a single, more accurate prediction. Recently, feature-based forecasting has been employed to either select the most appropriate forecasting models or to optimize the weights of their combination. In this paper, we present a multi-task optimization paradigm that focuses on solving both problems simultaneously and enriches current operational research approaches to forecasting. In essence, it incorporates an additional learning and optimization task into the standard feature-based forecasting approach, focusing on the identification of an optimal set of forecasting methods. During the training phase, an optimization model with linear constraints and quadratic objective function is employed to identify accurate and diverse methods for each time series. Moreover, within the training phase, a neural network is used to learn the behavior of that optimization model. Once training is completed the candidate set of methods is identified using the network. The proposed approach elicits the essential role of diversity in feature-based forecasting and highlights the interplay between model combination and model selection when optimizing forecasting ensembles. Experimental results on a large set of series from the M4 competition dataset show that our proposal enhances point forecast accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Incorporating prior knowledge into pre-trained language models has proven to be effective for knowledge-driven NLP tasks, such as entity typing and relation extraction. Current pre-training procedures usually inject external knowledge into models by using knowledge masking, knowledge fusion and knowledge replacement. However, factual information contained in the input sentences have not been fully mined, and the external knowledge for injecting have not been strictly checked. As a result, the context information cannot be fully exploited and extra noise will be introduced or the amount of knowledge injected is limited. To address these issues, we propose MLRIP, which modifies the knowledge masking strategies proposed by ERNIE-Baidu, and introduce a two-stage entity replacement strategy. Extensive experiments with comprehensive analyses illustrate the superiority of MLRIP over BERT-based models in military knowledge-driven NLP tasks.

The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.

Machine-learning models have demonstrated great success in learning complex patterns that enable them to make predictions about unobserved data. In addition to using models for prediction, the ability to interpret what a model has learned is receiving an increasing amount of attention. However, this increased focus has led to considerable confusion about the notion of interpretability. In particular, it is unclear how the wide array of proposed interpretation methods are related, and what common concepts can be used to evaluate them. We aim to address these concerns by defining interpretability in the context of machine learning and introducing the Predictive, Descriptive, Relevant (PDR) framework for discussing interpretations. The PDR framework provides three overarching desiderata for evaluation: predictive accuracy, descriptive accuracy and relevancy, with relevancy judged relative to a human audience. Moreover, to help manage the deluge of interpretation methods, we introduce a categorization of existing techniques into model-based and post-hoc categories, with sub-groups including sparsity, modularity and simulatability. To demonstrate how practitioners can use the PDR framework to evaluate and understand interpretations, we provide numerous real-world examples. These examples highlight the often under-appreciated role played by human audiences in discussions of interpretability. Finally, based on our framework, we discuss limitations of existing methods and directions for future work. We hope that this work will provide a common vocabulary that will make it easier for both practitioners and researchers to discuss and choose from the full range of interpretation methods.