We consider the problem of learning parametric distributions from their quantized samples in a network. Specifically, $n$ agents or sensors observe independent samples of an unknown parametric distribution; and each of them uses $k$ bits to describe its observed sample to a central processor whose goal is to estimate the unknown distribution. First, we establish a generalization of the well-known van Trees inequality to general $L_p$-norms, with $p > 1$, in terms of Generalized Fisher information. Then, we develop minimax lower bounds on the estimation error for two losses: general $L_p$-norms and the related Wasserstein loss from optimal transport.
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We study best-arm identification with a fixed budget and contextual (covariate) information in stochastic multi-armed bandit problems. In each round, after observing contextual information, we choose a treatment arm using past observations and current context. Our goal is to identify the best treatment arm, a treatment arm with the maximal expected reward marginalized over the contextual distribution, with a minimal probability of misidentification. First, we derive semiparametric lower bounds for this problem, where we regard the gaps between the expected rewards of the best and suboptimal treatment arms as parameters of interest, and all other parameters, such as the expected rewards conditioned on contexts, as the nuisance parameters. We then develop the "Contextual RS-AIPW strategy," which consists of the random sampling (RS) rule tracking a target allocation ratio and the recommendation rule using the augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) estimator. Our proposed Contextual RS-AIPW strategy is optimal because the upper bound for the probability of misidentification matches the semiparametric lower bound when the budget goes to infinity, and the gaps converge to zero.
Consider a $p$-dimensional population ${\mathbf x} \in\mathbb{R}^p$ with iid coordinates in the domain of attraction of a stable distribution with index $\alpha\in (0,2)$. Since the variance of ${\mathbf x}$ is infinite, the sample covariance matrix ${\mathbf S}_n=n^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^n {{\mathbf x}_i}{\mathbf x}'_i$ based on a sample ${\mathbf x}_1,\ldots,{\mathbf x}_n$ from the population is not well behaved and it is of interest to use instead the sample correlation matrix ${\mathbf R}_n= \{\operatorname{diag}({\mathbf S}_n)\}^{-1/2}\, {\mathbf S}_n \{\operatorname{diag}({\mathbf S}_n)\}^{-1/2}$. This paper finds the limiting distributions of the eigenvalues of ${\mathbf R}_n$ when both the dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$ grow to infinity such that $p/n\to \gamma \in (0,\infty)$. The family of limiting distributions $\{H_{\alpha,\gamma}\}$ is new and depends on the two parameters $\alpha$ and $\gamma$. The moments of $H_{\alpha,\gamma}$ are fully identified as sum of two contributions: the first from the classical Mar\v{c}enko-Pastur law and a second due to heavy tails. Moreover, the family $\{H_{\alpha,\gamma}\}$ has continuous extensions at the boundaries $\alpha=2$ and $\alpha=0$ leading to the Mar\v{c}enko-Pastur law and a modified Poisson distribution, respectively. Our proofs use the method of moments, the path-shortening algorithm developed in [18] and some novel graph counting combinatorics. As a consequence, the moments of $H_{\alpha,\gamma}$ are expressed in terms of combinatorial objects such as Stirling numbers of the second kind. A simulation study on these limiting distributions $H_{\alpha,\gamma}$ is also provided for comparison with the Mar\v{c}enko-Pastur law.
In mechanism design, it is challenging to design the optimal auction with correlated values in general settings. Although value distribution can be further exploited to improve revenue, the complex correlation structure makes it hard to acquire in practice. Data-driven auction mechanisms, powered by machine learning, enable to design auctions directly from historical auction data, without relying on specific value distributions. In this work, we design a learning-based auction, which can encode the correlation of values into the rank score of each bidder, and further adjust the ranking rule to approach the optimal revenue. We strictly guarantee the property of strategy-proofness by encoding game theoretical conditions into the neural network structure. Furthermore, all operations in the designed auctions are differentiable to enable an end-to-end training paradigm. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed auction mechanism can represent almost any strategy-proof auction mechanism, and outperforms the auction mechanisms wildly used in the correlated value settings.
A goodness-of-fit test for one-parameter count distributions with finite second moment is proposed. The test statistic is derived from the $L_1$-distance of a function of the probability generating function of the model under the null hypothesis and that of the random variable actually generating data, when the latter belongs to a suitable wide class of alternatives. The test statistic has a rather simple form and it is asymptotically normally distributed under the null hypothesis, allowing a straightforward implementation of the test. Moreover, the test is consistent for alternative distributions belonging to the class, but also for all the alternative distributions whose probability of zero is different from that under the null hypothesis. Thus, the use of the test is proposed and investigated also for alternatives not in the class. The finite-sample properties of the test are assessed by means of an extensive simulation study.
Interval-censored multi-state data arise in many studies of chronic diseases, where the health status of a subject can be characterized by a finite number of disease states and the transition between any two states is only known to occur over a broad time interval. We formulate the effects of potentially time-dependent covariates on multi-state processes through semiparametric proportional intensity models with random effects. We adopt nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (NPMLE) under general interval censoring and develop a stable expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. We show that the resulting parameter estimators are consistent and that the finite-dimensional components are asymptotically normal with a covariance matrix that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound and can be consistently estimated through profile likelihood. In addition, we demonstrate through extensive simulation studies that the proposed numerical and inferential procedures perform well in realistic settings. Finally, we provide an application to a major epidemiologic cohort study.
Traditional nonparametric estimation methods often lead to a slow convergence rate in large dimensions and require unrealistically enormous sizes of datasets for reliable conclusions. We develop an approach based on mixed gradients, either observed or estimated, to effectively estimate the function at near-parametric convergence rates. The novel approach and computational algorithm could lead to methods useful to practitioners in many areas of science and engineering. Our theoretical results reveal a behavior universal to this class of nonparametric estimation problems. We explore a general setting involving tensor product spaces and build upon the smoothing spline analysis of variance (SS-ANOVA) framework. For $d$-dimensional models under full interaction, the optimal rates with gradient information on $p$ covariates are identical to those for the $(d-p)$-interaction models without gradients and, therefore, the models are immune to the "curse of interaction". For additive models, the optimal rates using gradient information are root-$n$, thus achieving the "parametric rate". We demonstrate aspects of the theoretical results through synthetic and real data applications.
The parameters of the log-logistic distribution are generally estimated based on classical methods such as maximum likelihood estimation, whereas these methods usually result in severe biased estimates when the data contain outliers. In this paper, we consider several alternative estimators, which not only have closed-form expressions, but also are quite robust to a certain level of data contamination. We investigate the robustness property of each estimator in terms of the breakdown point. The finite sample performance and effectiveness of these estimators are evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations and a real-data application. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed estimators perform favorably in a manner that they are comparable with the maximum likelihood estimator for the data without contamination and that they provide superior performance in the presence of data contamination.
We develop the theory of a metric, which we call the $\nu$-based Wasserstein metric and denote by $W_\nu$, on the set of probability measures $\mathcal P(X)$ on a domain $X \subseteq \mathbb{R}^m$. This metric is based on a slight refinement of the notion of generalized geodesics with respect to a base measure $\nu$ and is relevant in particular for the case when $\nu$ is singular with respect to $m$-dimensional Lebesgue measure; it is also closely related to the concept of linearized optimal transport. The $\nu$-based Wasserstein metric is defined in terms of an iterated variational problem involving optimal transport to $\nu$; we also characterize it in terms of integrations of classical Wasserstein distance between the conditional probabilities and through limits of certain multi-marginal optimal transport problems. As we vary the base measure $\nu$, the $\nu$-based Wasserstein metric interpolates between the usual quadratic Wasserstein distance and a metric associated with the uniquely defined generalized geodesics obtained when $\nu$ is sufficiently regular. When $\nu$ concentrates on a lower dimensional submanifold of $\mathbb{R}^m$, we prove that the variational problem in the definition of the $\nu$-based Wasserstein distance has a unique solution. We establish geodesic convexity of the usual class of functionals and of the set of source measures $\mu$ such that optimal transport between $\mu$ and $\nu$ satisfies a strengthening of the generalized nestedness condition introduced in \cite{McCannPass20}.We finally introduce a slight variant of the dual metric mentioned above in order to prove convergence of an iterative scheme to solve a variational problem arising in game theory.
We investigate hypothesis testing in nonparametric additive models estimated using simplified smooth backfitting (Huang and Yu, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, \textbf{28(2)}, 386--400, 2019). Simplified smooth backfitting achieves oracle properties under regularity conditions and provides closed-form expressions of the estimators that are useful for deriving asymptotic properties. We develop a generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) and a loss function (LF) based testing framework for inference. Under the null hypothesis, both the GLR and LF tests have asymptotically rescaled chi-squared distributions, and both exhibit the Wilks phenomenon, which means the scaling constants and degrees of freedom are independent of nuisance parameters. These tests are asymptotically optimal in terms of rates of convergence for nonparametric hypothesis testing. Additionally, the bandwidths that are well-suited for model estimation may be useful for testing. We show that in additive models, the LF test is asymptotically more powerful than the GLR test. We use simulations to demonstrate the Wilks phenomenon and the power of these proposed GLR and LF tests, and a real example to illustrate their usefulness.
We show that under minimal assumptions on a random vector $X\in\mathbb{R}^d$, and with high probability, given $m$ independent copies of $X$, the coordinate distribution of each vector $(\langle X_i,\theta \rangle)_{i=1}^m$ is dictated by the distribution of the true marginal $\langle X,\theta \rangle$. Formally, we show that with high probability, \[\sup_{\theta \in S^{d-1}} \left( \frac{1}{m}\sum_{i=1}^m \left|\langle X_i,\theta \rangle^\sharp - \lambda^\theta_i \right|^2 \right)^{1/2} \leq c \left( \frac{d}{m} \right)^{1/4},\] where $\lambda^{\theta}_i = m\int_{(\frac{i-1}{m}, \frac{i}{m}]} F_{ \langle X,\theta \rangle }^{-1}(u)^2 \,du$ and $a^\sharp$ denotes the monotone non-decreasing rearrangement of $a$. The proof follows from the optimal estimate on the worst Wasserstein distance between a marginal of $X$ and its empirical counterpart, $\frac{1}{m} \sum_{i=1}^m \delta_{\langle X_i, \theta \rangle}$. We then use the accurate information on the structures of the vectors $(\langle X_i,\theta \rangle)_{i=1}^m$ to construct the first non-gaussian ensemble that yields the optimal estimate in the Dvoretzky-Milman Theorem: the ensemble exhibits almost Euclidean sections in arbitrary normed spaces of the same dimension as the gaussian embedding -- despite being very far from gaussian (in fact, it happens to be heavy-tailed).
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