Risk assessment is a central element for the development and validation of Autonomous Vehicles (AV). It comprises a combination of occurrence probability and severity of future critical events. Time Headway (TH) as well as Time-To-Contact (TTC) are commonly used risk metrics and have qualitative relations to occurrence probability. However, they lack theoretical derivations and additionally they are designed to only cover special types of traffic scenarios (e.g. following between single car pairs). In this paper, we present a probabilistic situation risk model based on survival analysis considerations and extend it to naturally incorporate sensory, temporal and behavioral uncertainties as they arise in real-world scenarios. The resulting Risk Spot Detector (RSD) is applied and tested on naturalistic driving data of a multi-lane boulevard with several intersections, enabling the visualization of road criticality maps. Compared to TH and TTC, our approach is more selective and specific in predicting risk. RSD concentrates on driving sections of high vehicle density where large accelerations and decelerations or approaches with high velocity occur.
For driverless train operation on mainline railways, several tasks need to be implemented by technical systems. One of the most challenging tasks is to monitor the train's driveway and its surroundings for potential obstacles due to long braking distances. Machine learning algorithms can be used to analyze data from vision sensors such as infrared (IR) and visual (RGB) cameras, lidars, and radars to detect objects. Such algorithms require large amounts of annotated data from objects in the rail environment that may pose potential obstacles, as well as rail-specific objects such as tracks or catenary poles, as training data. However, only very few datasets are publicly available and these available datasets typically involve only a limited number of sensors. Datasets and trained models from other domains, such as automotive, are useful but insufficient for object detection in the railway context. Therefore, this publication presents OSDaR23, a multi-sensor dataset of 21 sequences captured in Hamburg, Germany, in September 2021. The sensor setup consisted of multiple calibrated and synchronized IR/RGB cameras, lidars, a radar, and position and acceleration sensors front-mounted on a railway vehicle. In addition to raw data, the dataset contains 204091 polyline, polygonal, rectangle and cuboid annotations for 20 different object classes. This dataset can also be used for tasks going beyond collision prediction, which are listed in this paper.
This work is dedicated to the study of how uncertainty estimation of the human motion prediction can be embedded into constrained optimization techniques, such as Model Predictive Control (MPC) for the social robot navigation. We propose several cost objectives and constraint functions obtained from the uncertainty of predicting pedestrian positions and related to the probability of the collision that can be applied to the MPC, and all the different variants are compared in challenging scenes with multiple agents. The main question this paper tries to answer is: what are the most important uncertainty-based criteria for social MPC? For that, we evaluate the proposed approaches with several social navigation metrics in an extensive set of scenarios of different complexity in reproducible synthetic environments. The main outcome of our study is a foundation for a practical guide on when and how to use uncertainty-aware approaches for social robot navigation in practice and what are the most effective criteria.
Contrastively trained encoders have recently been proven to invert the data-generating process: they encode each input, e.g., an image, into the true latent vector that generated the image (Zimmermann et al., 2021). However, real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities. For instance, images may be blurred or only show a 2D view of a 3D object, so multiple latents could have generated them. This makes the true posterior for the latent vector probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty. In this setup, we extend the common InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions instead of points. We prove that these distributions recover the correct posteriors of the data-generating process, including its level of aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space. In addition to providing calibrated uncertainty estimates, these posteriors allow the computation of credible intervals in image retrieval. They comprise images with the same latent as a given query, subject to its uncertainty. Code is available at //github.com/mkirchhof/Probabilistic_Contrastive_Learning
Safety and performance are key enablers for autonomous driving: on the one hand we want our autonomous vehicles (AVs) to be safe, while at the same time their performance (e.g., comfort or progression) is key to adoption. To effectively walk the tight-rope between safety and performance, AVs need to be risk-averse, but not entirely risk-avoidant. To facilitate safe-yet-performant driving, in this paper, we develop a task-aware risk estimator that assesses the risk a perception failure poses to the AV's motion plan. If the failure has no bearing on the safety of the AV's motion plan, then regardless of how egregious the perception failure is, our task-aware risk estimator considers the failure to have a low risk; on the other hand, if a seemingly benign perception failure severely impacts the motion plan, then our estimator considers it to have a high risk. In this paper, we propose a task-aware risk estimator to decide whether a safety maneuver needs to be triggered. To estimate the task-aware risk, first, we leverage the perception failure - detected by a perception monitor - to synthesize an alternative plausible model for the vehicle's surroundings. The risk due to the perception failure is then formalized as the "relative" risk to the AV's motion plan between the perceived and the alternative plausible scenario. We employ a statistical tool called copula, which models tail dependencies between distributions, to estimate this risk. The theoretical properties of the copula allow us to compute probably approximately correct (PAC) estimates of the risk. We evaluate our task-aware risk estimator using NuPlan and compare it with established baselines, showing that the proposed risk estimator achieves the best F1-score (doubling the score of the best baseline) and exhibits a good balance between recall and precision, i.e., a good balance of safety and performance.
The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.
In many visual systems, visual tracking often bases on RGB image sequences, in which some targets are invalid in low-light conditions, and tracking performance is thus affected significantly. Introducing other modalities such as depth and infrared data is an effective way to handle imaging limitations of individual sources, but multi-modal imaging platforms usually require elaborate designs and cannot be applied in many real-world applications at present. Near-infrared (NIR) imaging becomes an essential part of many surveillance cameras, whose imaging is switchable between RGB and NIR based on the light intensity. These two modalities are heterogeneous with very different visual properties and thus bring big challenges for visual tracking. However, existing works have not studied this challenging problem. In this work, we address the cross-modal object tracking problem and contribute a new video dataset, including 654 cross-modal image sequences with over 481K frames in total, and the average video length is more than 735 frames. To promote the research and development of cross-modal object tracking, we propose a new algorithm, which learns the modality-aware target representation to mitigate the appearance gap between RGB and NIR modalities in the tracking process. It is plug-and-play and could thus be flexibly embedded into different tracking frameworks. Extensive experiments on the dataset are conducted, and we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in two representative tracking frameworks against 17 state-of-the-art tracking methods. We will release the dataset for free academic usage, dataset download link and code will be released soon.
Knowledge enhanced pre-trained language models (K-PLMs) are shown to be effective for many public tasks in the literature but few of them have been successfully applied in practice. To address this problem, we propose K-AID, a systematic approach that includes a low-cost knowledge acquisition process for acquiring domain knowledge, an effective knowledge infusion module for improving model performance, and a knowledge distillation component for reducing the model size and deploying K-PLMs on resource-restricted devices (e.g., CPU) for real-world application. Importantly, instead of capturing entity knowledge like the majority of existing K-PLMs, our approach captures relational knowledge, which contributes to better-improving sentence-level text classification and text matching tasks that play a key role in question answering (QA). We conducted a set of experiments on five text classification tasks and three text matching tasks from three domains, namely E-commerce, Government, and Film&TV, and performed online A/B tests in E-commerce. Experimental results show that our approach is able to achieve substantial improvement on sentence-level question answering tasks and bring beneficial business value in industrial settings.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.
Autonomous driving is regarded as one of the most promising remedies to shield human beings from severe crashes. To this end, 3D object detection serves as the core basis of such perception system especially for the sake of path planning, motion prediction, collision avoidance, etc. Generally, stereo or monocular images with corresponding 3D point clouds are already standard layout for 3D object detection, out of which point clouds are increasingly prevalent with accurate depth information being provided. Despite existing efforts, 3D object detection on point clouds is still in its infancy due to high sparseness and irregularity of point clouds by nature, misalignment view between camera view and LiDAR bird's eye of view for modality synergies, occlusions and scale variations at long distances, etc. Recently, profound progress has been made in 3D object detection, with a large body of literature being investigated to address this vision task. As such, we present a comprehensive review of the latest progress in this field covering all the main topics including sensors, fundamentals, and the recent state-of-the-art detection methods with their pros and cons. Furthermore, we introduce metrics and provide quantitative comparisons on popular public datasets. The avenues for future work are going to be judiciously identified after an in-deep analysis of the surveyed works. Finally, we conclude this paper.
Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.