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Modeling the correlations among errors is closely associated with how accurately the model can quantify predictive uncertainty in probabilistic time series forecasting. Recent multivariate models have made significant progress in accounting for contemporaneous correlations among errors, while a common assumption on these errors is that they are temporally independent for the sake of statistical simplicity. However, real-world observations often deviate from this assumption, since errors usually exhibit substantial autocorrelation due to various factors such as the exclusion of temporally correlated covariates. In this work, we propose an efficient method, based on a low-rank-plus-diagonal parameterization of the covariance matrix, which can effectively characterize the autocorrelation of errors. The proposed method possesses several desirable properties: the complexity does not scale with the number of time series, the resulting covariance can be used for calibrating predictions, and it can seamlessly integrate with any model with Gaussian-distributed errors. We empirically demonstrate these properties using two distinct neural forecasting models-GPVar and Transformer. Our experimental results confirm the effectiveness of our method in enhancing predictive accuracy and the quality of uncertainty quantification on multiple real-world datasets.

We prove an inverse approximation theorem for the approximation of nonlinear sequence-to-sequence relationships using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). This is a so-called Bernstein-type result in approximation theory, which deduces properties of a target function under the assumption that it can be effectively approximated by a hypothesis space. In particular, we show that nonlinear sequence relationships that can be stably approximated by nonlinear RNNs must have an exponential decaying memory structure - a notion that can be made precise. This extends the previously identified curse of memory in linear RNNs into the general nonlinear setting, and quantifies the essential limitations of the RNN architecture for learning sequential relationships with long-term memory. Based on the analysis, we propose a principled reparameterization method to overcome the limitations. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical experiments. The code has been released in //github.com/radarFudan/Curse-of-memory

In robotics, contemporary strategies are learning-based, characterized by a complex black-box nature and a lack of interpretability, which may pose challenges in ensuring stability and safety. To address these issues, we propose integrating an obstacle-free deep reinforcement learning (DRL) trajectory planner with a novel auto-tuning low- and joint-level control strategy, all while actively engaging in the learning phase through interactions with the environment. This approach circumvents the complexities associated with computations while also addressing nonrepetitive and random obstacle avoidance tasks. First, a model-free DRL agent to plan velocity-bounded and obstacle-free motion is employed for a manipulator with 'n' degrees of freedom (DoF) in task space through joint-level reasoning. This plan is then input into a robust subsystem-based adaptive controller, which produces the necessary torques, while the Cuckoo Search Optimization (CSO) algorithm enhances control gains to minimize the time required to reach, time taken to stabilize, the maximum deviation from the desired value, and persistent tracking error in the steady state. This approach guarantees that position and velocity errors exponentially converge to zero in an unfamiliar environment, despite unknown robotic manipulator modeling. Theoretical assertions are validated through the presentation of simulation outcomes.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently attracted considerable interest for their ability to perform complex reasoning tasks, such as chain-of-thought reasoning. However, most of the existing approaches to enhance this ability rely heavily on data-driven methods, while neglecting the structural aspects of the model's reasoning capacity. We find that while LLMs can manage individual reasoning steps well, they struggle with maintaining consistency across an entire reasoning chain. To solve this, we introduce planning tokens at the start of each reasoning step, serving as a guide for the model, and add their embeddings to the model parameters. Our approach requires a negligible increase in trainable parameters (just 0.001%) and can be applied through either full fine-tuning or a more parameter-efficient scheme. We demonstrate our method's effectiveness by applying it to three different LLMs, showing notable accuracy improvements across three math word problem datasets w.r.t. standard fine-tuning baselines.

Contextual Markov decision processes (CMDPs) describe a class of reinforcement learning problems in which the transition kernels and reward functions can change over time with different MDPs indexed by a context variable. While CMDPs serve as an important framework to model many real-world applications with time-varying environments, they are largely unexplored from theoretical perspective. In this paper, we study CMDPs under two linear function approximation models: Model I with context-varying representations and common linear weights for all contexts; and Model II with common representations for all contexts and context-varying linear weights. For both models, we propose novel model-based algorithms and show that they enjoy guaranteed $\epsilon$-suboptimality gap with desired polynomial sample complexity. In particular, instantiating our result for the first model to the tabular CMDP improves the existing result by removing the reachability assumption. Our result for the second model is the first-known result for such a type of function approximation models. Comparison between our results for the two models further indicates that having context-varying features leads to much better sample efficiency than having common representations for all contexts under linear CMDPs.

Data augmentation (DA) has gained widespread popularity in deep speaker models due to its ease of implementation and significant effectiveness. It enriches training data by simulating real-life acoustic variations, enabling deep neural networks to learn speaker-related representations while disregarding irrelevant acoustic variations, thereby improving robustness and generalization. However, a potential issue with the vanilla DA is augmentation residual, i.e., unwanted distortion caused by different types of augmentation. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel approach called adversarial data augmentation (A-DA) which combines DA with adversarial learning. Specifically, it involves an additional augmentation classifier to categorize various augmentation types used in data augmentation. This adversarial learning empowers the network to generate speaker embeddings that can deceive the augmentation classifier, making the learned speaker embeddings more robust in the face of augmentation variations. Experiments conducted on VoxCeleb and CN-Celeb datasets demonstrate that our proposed A-DA outperforms standard DA in both augmentation matched and mismatched test conditions, showcasing its superior robustness and generalization against acoustic variations.

We consider a variant of matrix completion where entries are revealed in a biased manner, adopting a model akin to that introduced by Ma and Chen. Instead of treating this observation bias as a disadvantage, as is typically the case, the goal is to exploit the shared information between the bias and the outcome of interest to improve predictions. Towards this, we consider a natural model where the observation pattern and outcome of interest are driven by the same set of underlying latent or unobserved factors. This leads to a two stage matrix completion algorithm: first, recover (distances between) the latent factors by utilizing matrix completion for the fully observed noisy binary matrix corresponding to the observation pattern; second, utilize the recovered latent factors as features and sparsely observed noisy outcomes as labels to perform non-parametric supervised learning. The finite-sample error rates analysis suggests that, ignoring logarithmic factors, this approach is competitive with the corresponding supervised learning parametric rates. This implies the two-stage method has performance that is comparable to having access to the unobserved latent factors through exploiting the shared information between the bias and outcomes. Through empirical evaluation using a real-world dataset, we find that with this two-stage algorithm, the estimates have 30x smaller mean squared error compared to traditional matrix completion methods, suggesting the utility of the model and the method proposed in this work.

This research explores strategies for steering the output of large language models (LLMs) towards specific styles, such as sentiment, emotion, or writing style, by adding style vectors to the activations of hidden layers during text generation. We show that style vectors can be simply computed from recorded layer activations for input texts in a specific style in contrast to more complex training-based approaches. Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of activation engineering using such style vectors to influence the style of generated text in a nuanced and parameterisable way, distinguishing it from prompt engineering. The presented research constitutes a significant step towards developing more adaptive and effective AI-empowered interactive systems.

In the Big Data era, with the ubiquity of geolocation sensors in particular, massive datasets exhibiting a possibly complex spatial dependence structure are becoming increasingly available. In this context, the standard probabilistic theory of statistical learning does not apply directly and guarantees of the generalization capacity of predictive rules learned from such data are left to establish. We analyze here the simple Kriging task from a statistical learning perspective, i.e. by carrying out a nonparametric finite-sample predictive analysis. Given $d\geq 1$ values taken by a realization of a square integrable random field $X=\{X_s\}_{s\in S}$, $S\subset \mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown covariance structure, at sites $s_1,\; \ldots,\; s_d$ in $S$, the goal is to predict the unknown values it takes at any other location $s\in S$ with minimum quadratic risk. The prediction rule being derived from a training spatial dataset: a single realization $X'$ of $X$, independent from those to be predicted, observed at $n\geq 1$ locations $\sigma_1,\; \ldots,\; \sigma_n$ in $S$. Despite the connection of this minimization problem with kernel ridge regression, establishing the generalization capacity of empirical risk minimizers is far from straightforward, due to the non independent and identically distributed nature of the training data $X'_{\sigma_1},\; \ldots,\; X'_{\sigma_n}$ involved in the learning procedure. In this article, non-asymptotic bounds of order $O_{\mathbb{P}}(1/\sqrt{n})$ are proved for the excess risk of a plug-in predictive rule mimicking the true minimizer in the case of isotropic stationary Gaussian processes, observed at locations forming a regular grid in the learning stage. These theoretical results are illustrated by various numerical experiments, on simulated data and on real-world datasets.

We advocate the use of implicit fields for learning generative models of shapes and introduce an implicit field decoder for shape generation, aimed at improving the visual quality of the generated shapes. An implicit field assigns a value to each point in 3D space, so that a shape can be extracted as an iso-surface. Our implicit field decoder is trained to perform this assignment by means of a binary classifier. Specifically, it takes a point coordinate, along with a feature vector encoding a shape, and outputs a value which indicates whether the point is outside the shape or not. By replacing conventional decoders by our decoder for representation learning and generative modeling of shapes, we demonstrate superior results for tasks such as shape autoencoding, generation, interpolation, and single-view 3D reconstruction, particularly in terms of visual quality.