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Common tasks encountered in epidemiology, including disease incidence estimation and causal inference, rely on predictive modeling. Constructing a predictive model can be thought of as learning a prediction function, i.e., a function that takes as input covariate data and outputs a predicted value. Many strategies for learning these functions from data are available, from parametric regressions to machine learning algorithms. It can be challenging to choose an approach, as it is impossible to know in advance which one is the most suitable for a particular dataset and prediction task at hand. The super learner (SL) is an algorithm that alleviates concerns over selecting the one "right" strategy while providing the freedom to consider many of them, such as those recommended by collaborators, used in related research, or specified by subject-matter experts. It is an entirely pre-specified and data-adaptive strategy for predictive modeling. To ensure the SL is well-specified for learning the prediction function, the analyst does need to make a few important choices. In this Education Corner article, we provide step-by-step guidelines for making these choices, walking the reader through each of them and providing intuition along the way. In doing so, we aim to empower the analyst to tailor the SL specification to their prediction task, thereby ensuring their SL performs as well as possible. A flowchart provides a concise, easy-to-follow summary of key suggestions and heuristics, based on our accumulated experience, and guided by theory.

The key relay protocol (KRP) plays an important role in improving the performance and the security of quantum key distribution (QKD) networks. On the other hand, there is also an existing research field called secure network coding (SNC), which has similar goal and structure. We here analyze differences and similarities between the KRP and SNC rigorously. We found, rather surprisingly, that there is a definite gap in security between the KRP and SNC; that is, certain KRPs achieve better security than any SNC schemes on the same graph. We also found that this gap can be closed if we generalize the notion of SNC by adding free public channels; that is, KRPs are equivalent to SNC schemes augmented with free public channels.

We describe a numerical algorithm for approximating the equilibrium-reduced density matrix and the effective (mean force) Hamiltonian for a set of system spins coupled strongly to a set of bath spins when the total system (system+bath) is held in canonical thermal equilibrium by weak coupling with a "super-bath". Our approach is a generalization of now standard typicality algorithms for computing the quantum expectation value of observables of bare quantum systems via trace estimators and Krylov subspace methods. In particular, our algorithm makes use of the fact that the reduced system density, when the bath is measured in a given random state, tends to concentrate about the corresponding thermodynamic averaged reduced system density. Theoretical error analysis and numerical experiments are given to validate the accuracy of our algorithm. Further numerical experiments demonstrate the potential of our approach for applications including the study of quantum phase transitions and entanglement entropy for long-range interaction systems.

Inspired by Hosoyamada et al.'s work [14], we propose a new quantum meet-in-the-middle (QMITM) attack on $r$-round ($r \ge 7$) Feistel construction to reduce the time complexity. Similar to Hosoyamada et al.'s work, our attack on 7-round Feistel is also based on Guo et al.'s classical meet-in-the-middle (MITM) attack [13]. The classic MITM attack consumes a lot of time mainly in three aspects: construct the lookup table, query data and find a match. Therefore, parallel Grover search processors are used to reduce the time of constructing the lookup table. And we adjust the truncated differentials of the 5-round distinguisher proposed by Guo et al. to balance the complexities between constructing the lookup table and querying data. Finally, we introduce a quantum claw finding algorithm to find a match for reducing time. The subkeys can be recovered by this match. Furthermore, for $r$-round ($r > 7$) Feistel construction, we treat the above attack on the first 7 rounds as an inner loop and use Grover's algorithm to search the last $r-7$ rounds of subkeys as an outer loop. In summary, the total time complexity of our attack on $r$-round ($r \ge 7$) is only $O(2^{2n/3+(r-7)n/4})$ less than classical and quantum attacks. Moreover, our attack belongs to Q1 model and is more practical than other quantum attacks.

Most existing works of polar codes focus on the analysis of block error probability. However, in many scenarios, bit error probability is also important for evaluating the performance of channel codes. In this paper, we establish a new framework to analyze the bit error probability of polar codes. Specifically, by revisiting the error event of bit-channel, we first introduce the conditional bit error probability as a metric to evaluate the reliability of bit-channel for both systematic and non-systematic polar codes. Guided by the concept of polar subcode, we then derive an upper bound on the conditional bit error probability of each bit-channel, and accordingly, an upper bound on the bit error probability of polar codes. Based on these, two types of construction metrics aiming at minimizing the bit error probability of polar codes are proposed, which are of linear computational complexity and explicit forms. Simulation results show that the polar codes constructed by the proposed methods can outperform those constructed by the conventional methods.

Learning accurate classifiers for novel categories from very few examples, known as few-shot image classification, is a challenging task in statistical machine learning and computer vision. The performance in few-shot classification suffers from the bias in the estimation of classifier parameters; however, an effective underlying bias reduction technique that could alleviate this issue in training few-shot classifiers has been overlooked. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Firth bias reduction in few-shot classification. Theoretically, Firth bias reduction removes the $O(N^{-1})$ first order term from the small-sample bias of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator. Here we show that the general Firth bias reduction technique simplifies to encouraging uniform class assignment probabilities for multinomial logistic classification, and almost has the same effect in cosine classifiers. We derive an easy-to-implement optimization objective for Firth penalized multinomial logistic and cosine classifiers, which is equivalent to penalizing the cross-entropy loss with a KL-divergence between the uniform label distribution and the predictions. Then, we empirically evaluate that it is consistently effective across the board for few-shot image classification, regardless of (1) the feature representations from different backbones, (2) the number of samples per class, and (3) the number of classes. Finally, we show the robustness of Firth bias reduction, in the case of imbalanced data distribution. Our implementation is available at //github.com/ehsansaleh/firth_bias_reduction

We present a method for the control of robot swarms which allows the shaping and the translation of patterns of simple robots ("smart particles"), using two types of devices. These two types represent a hierarchy: a larger group of simple, oblivious robots (which we call the workers) that is governed by simple local attraction forces, and a smaller group (the guides) with sufficient mission knowledge to create and maintain a desired pattern by operating on the local forces of the former. This framework exploits the knowledge of the guides, which coordinate to shape the workers like smart particles by changing their interaction parameters. We study the approach with a large scale simulation experiment in a physics based simulator with up to 1000 robots forming three different patterns. Our experiments reveal that the approach scales well with increasing robot numbers, and presents little pattern distortion for a set of target moving shapes. We evaluate the approach on a physical swarm of robots that use visual inertial odometry to compute their relative positions and obtain results that are comparable with simulation. This work lays foundation for designing and coordinating configurable smart particles, with applications in smart materials and nanomedicine.

We present a novel static analysis technique to derive higher moments for program variables for a large class of probabilistic loops with potentially uncountable state spaces. Our approach is fully automatic, meaning it does not rely on externally provided invariants or templates. We employ algebraic techniques based on linear recurrences and introduce program transformations to simplify probabilistic programs while preserving their statistical properties. We develop power reduction techniques to further simplify the polynomial arithmetic of probabilistic programs and define the theory of moment-computable probabilistic loops for which higher moments can precisely be computed. Our work has applications towards recovering probability distributions of random variables and computing tail probabilities. The empirical evaluation of our results demonstrates the applicability of our work on many challenging examples.

We present a pipelined multiplier with reduced activities and minimized interconnect based on online digit-serial arithmetic. The working precision has been truncated such that $p<n$ bits are used to compute $n$ bits product, resulting in significant savings in area and power. The digit slices follow variable precision according to input, increasing upto $p$ and then decreases according to the error profile. Pipelining has been done to achieve high throughput and low latency which is desirable for compute intensive inner products. Synthesis results of the proposed designs have been presented and compared with the non-pipelined online multiplier, pipelined online multiplier with full working precision and conventional serial-parallel and array multipliers. For $8, 16, 24$ and $32$ bit precision, the proposed low power pipelined design show upto $38\%$ and $44\%$ reduction in power and area respectively compared to the pipelined online multiplier without working precision truncation.

Upcoming HEP experiments, e.g. at the HL-LHC, are expected to increase the volume of generated data by at least one order of magnitude. In order to retain the ability to analyze the influx of data, full exploitation of modern storage hardware and systems, such as low-latency high-bandwidth NVMe devices and distributed object stores, becomes critical. To this end, the ROOT RNTuple I/O subsystem has been designed to address performance bottlenecks and shortcomings of ROOT's current state of the art TTree I/O subsystem. RNTuple provides a backwards-incompatible redesign of the TTree binary format and access API that evolves the ROOT event data I/O for the challenges of the upcoming decades. It focuses on a compact data format, on performance engineering for modern storage hardware, for instance through making parallel and asynchronous I/O calls by default, and on robust interfaces that are easy to use correctly. In this contribution, we evaluate the RNTuple performance for typical HEP analysis tasks. We compare the throughput delivered by RNTuple to popular I/O libraries outside HEP, such as HDF5 and Apache Parquet. We demonstrate the advantages of RNTuple for HEP analysis workflows and provide an outlook on the road to its use in production.