Persistent homology is an important methodology from topological data analysis which adapts theory from algebraic topology to data settings and has been successfully implemented in many applications. It produces a statistical summary in the form of a persistence diagram, which captures the shape and size of the data. Despite its widespread use, persistent homology is simply impossible to implement when a dataset is very large. In this paper we address the problem of finding a representative persistence diagram for prohibitively large datasets. We adapt the classical statistical method of bootstrapping, namely, drawing and studying smaller multiple subsamples from the large dataset. We show that the mean of the persistence diagrams of subsamples -- taken as a mean persistence measure computed from the subsamples -- is a valid approximation of the true persistent homology of the larger dataset. We give the rate of convergence of the mean persistence diagram to the true persistence diagram in terms of the number of subsamples and size of each subsample. Given the complex algebraic and geometric nature of persistent homology, we adapt the convexity and stability properties in the space of persistence diagrams together with random set theory to achieve our theoretical results for the general setting of point cloud data. We demonstrate our approach on simulated and real data, including an application of shape clustering on complex large-scale point cloud data.
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The FedProx algorithm is a simple yet powerful distributed proximal point optimization method widely used for federated learning (FL) over heterogeneous data. Despite its popularity and remarkable success witnessed in practice, the theoretical understanding of FedProx is largely underinvestigated: the appealing convergence behavior of FedProx is so far characterized under certain non-standard and unrealistic dissimilarity assumptions of local functions, and the results are limited to smooth optimization problems. In order to remedy these deficiencies, we develop a novel local dissimilarity invariant convergence theory for FedProx and its minibatch stochastic extension through the lens of algorithmic stability. As a result, we contribute to derive several new and deeper insights into FedProx for non-convex federated optimization including: 1) convergence guarantees independent on local dissimilarity type conditions; 2) convergence guarantees for non-smooth FL problems; and 3) linear speedup with respect to size of minibatch and number of sampled devices. Our theory for the first time reveals that local dissimilarity and smoothness are not must-have for FedProx to get favorable complexity bounds. Preliminary experimental results on a series of benchmark FL datasets are reported to demonstrate the benefit of minibatching for improving the sample efficiency of FedProx.
Many epidemic models are naturally defined as individual-based models: where we track the state of each individual within a susceptible population. Inference for individual-based models is challenging due to the high-dimensional state-space of such models, which increases exponentially with population size. We consider sequential Monte Carlo algorithms for inference for individual-based epidemic models where we make direct observations of the state of a sample of individuals. Standard implementations, such as the bootstrap filter or the auxiliary particle filter are inefficient due to mismatch between the proposal distribution of the state and future observations. We develop new efficient proposal distributions that take account of future observations, leveraging the properties that (i) we can analytically calculate the optimal proposal distribution for a single individual given future observations and the future infection rate of that individual; and (ii) the dynamics of individuals are independent if we condition on their infection rates. Thus we construct estimates of the future infection rate for each individual, and then use an independent proposal for the state of each individual given this estimate. Empirical results show order of magnitude improvement in efficiency of the sequential Monte Carlo sampler for both SIS and SEIR models.
Learning heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is an important problem across many fields. Most existing methods consider the setting with a single treatment arm and a single outcome metric. However, in many real world domains, experiments are run consistently - for example, in internet companies, A/B tests are run every day to measure the impacts of potential changes across many different metrics of interest. We show that even if an analyst cares only about the HTEs in one experiment for one metric, precision can be improved greatly by analyzing all of the data together to take advantage of cross-experiment and cross-outcome metric correlations. We formalize this idea in a tensor factorization framework and propose a simple and scalable model which we refer to as the low rank or LR-learner. Experiments in both synthetic and real data suggest that the LR-learner can be much more precise than independent HTE estimation.
Cross-validation is a widely-used technique to estimate prediction error, but its behavior is complex and not fully understood. Ideally, one would like to think that cross-validation estimates the prediction error for the model at hand, fit to the training data. We prove that this is not the case for the linear model fit by ordinary least squares; rather it estimates the average prediction error of models fit on other unseen training sets drawn from the same population. We further show that this phenomenon occurs for most popular estimates of prediction error, including data splitting, bootstrapping, and Mallow's Cp. Next, the standard confidence intervals for prediction error derived from cross-validation may have coverage far below the desired level. Because each data point is used for both training and testing, there are correlations among the measured accuracies for each fold, and so the usual estimate of variance is too small. We introduce a nested cross-validation scheme to estimate this variance more accurately, and we show empirically that this modification leads to intervals with approximately correct coverage in many examples where traditional cross-validation intervals fail.
Existing frameworks for probabilistic inference assume the quantity of interest is the parameter of a posited statistical model. In machine learning applications, however, often there is no statistical model/parameter; the quantity of interest is a statistical functional, a feature of the underlying distribution. Model-based methods can only handle such problems indirectly, via marginalization from a model parameter to the real quantity of interest. Here we develop a generalized inferential model (IM) framework for direct probabilistic uncertainty quantification on the quantity of interest. In particular, we construct a data-dependent, bootstrap-based possibility measure for uncertainty quantification and inference. We then prove that this new approach provides approximately valid inference in the sense that the plausibility values assigned to hypotheses about the unknowns are asymptotically well-calibrated in a frequentist sense. Among other things, this implies that confidence regions for the underlying functional derived from our proposed IM are approximately valid. The method is shown to perform well in key examples, including quantile regression, and in a personalized medicine application.
The quality of assessment determines the quality of learning, and is characterized by validity, reliability and difficulty. Mastery of learning is generally represented by the difficulty levels of assessment items. A very large number of variables are identified in the literature to measure the difficulty level. These variables, which are not completely independent of one another, are categorized into learner dependent, learner independent, generic, non-generic and score based. This research proposes a model for predicting the difficulty level of assessment items in engineering courses using learner independent and generic variables. An ordinal regression model is developed for predicting the difficulty level, and uses six variables including three stimuli variables (item presentation, usage of technical notations and number of resources), two content related variables (number of concepts and procedures) and one task variable (number of conditions). Experimental results from three engineering courses provide around 80% accuracy in classification of items using the proposed model.
We introduce a new intrinsic measure of local curvature on point-cloud data called diffusion curvature. Our measure uses the framework of diffusion maps, including the data diffusion operator, to structure point cloud data and define local curvature based on the laziness of a random walk starting at a point or region of the data. We show that this laziness directly relates to volume comparison results from Riemannian geometry. We then extend this scalar curvature notion to an entire quadratic form using neural network estimations based on the diffusion map of point-cloud data. We show applications of both estimations on toy data, single-cell data, and on estimating local Hessian matrices of neural network loss landscapes.
In experiments that study social phenomena, such as peer influence or herd immunity, the treatment of one unit may influence the outcomes of others. Such "interference between units" violates traditional approaches for causal inference, so that additional assumptions are often imposed to model or limit the underlying social mechanism. For binary outcomes, we propose an approach that does not require such assumptions, allowing for interference that is both unmodeled and strong, with confidence intervals derived using only the randomization of treatment. However, the estimates will have wider confidence intervals and weaker causal implications than those attainable under stronger assumptions. The approach allows for the usage of regression, matching, or weighting, as may best fit the application at hand. Inference is done by bounding the distribution of the estimation error over all possible values of the unknown counterfactual, using an integer program. Examples are shown using using a vaccination trial and two experiments investigating social influence.
In this work, we compare the performance of the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) with state-of-the-art classical solvers such as Gurobi and MQLib to solve the combinatorial optimization problem MaxCut on 3-regular graphs. The goal is to identify under which conditions QAOA can achieve "quantum advantage" over classical algorithms, in terms of both solution quality and time to solution. One might be able to achieve quantum advantage on hundreds of qubits and moderate depth $p$ by sampling the QAOA state at a frequency of order 10 kHz. We observe, however, that classical heuristic solvers are capable of producing high-quality approximate solutions in $\textit{linear}$ time complexity. In order to match this quality for $\textit{large}$ graph sizes $N$, a quantum device must support depth $p>11$. Otherwise, we demonstrate that the number of required samples grows exponentially with $N$, hindering the scalability of QAOA with $p\leq11$. These results put challenging bounds on achieving quantum advantage for QAOA MaxCut on 3-regular graphs. Other problems, such as different graphs, weighted MaxCut, maximum independent set, and 3-SAT, may be better suited for achieving quantum advantage on near-term quantum devices.
Topological loss based on persistent homology has shown promise in various applications. A topological loss enforces the model to achieve certain desired topological property. Despite its empirical success, less is known about the optimization behavior of the loss. In fact, the topological loss involves combinatorial configurations that may oscillate during optimization. In this paper, we introduce a general purpose regularized topology-aware loss. We propose a novel regularization term and also modify existing topological loss. These contributions lead to a new loss function that not only enforces the model to have desired topological behavior, but also achieves satisfying convergence behavior. Our main theoretical result guarantees that the loss can be optimized efficiently, under mild assumptions.
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