Many epidemic models are naturally defined as individual-based models: where we track the state of each individual within a susceptible population. Inference for individual-based models is challenging due to the high-dimensional state-space of such models, which increases exponentially with population size. We consider sequential Monte Carlo algorithms for inference for individual-based epidemic models where we make direct observations of the state of a sample of individuals. Standard implementations, such as the bootstrap filter or the auxiliary particle filter are inefficient due to mismatch between the proposal distribution of the state and future observations. We develop new efficient proposal distributions that take account of future observations, leveraging the properties that (i) we can analytically calculate the optimal proposal distribution for a single individual given future observations and the future infection rate of that individual; and (ii) the dynamics of individuals are independent if we condition on their infection rates. Thus we construct estimates of the future infection rate for each individual, and then use an independent proposal for the state of each individual given this estimate. Empirical results show order of magnitude improvement in efficiency of the sequential Monte Carlo sampler for both SIS and SEIR models.
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Regression modeling is the workhorse of statistics and there is a vast literature on estimation of the regression function. It is realized in recent years that in regression analysis the ultimate aim may be the estimation of a level set of the regression function, instead of the estimation of the regression function itself. The published work on estimation of the level set has thus far focused mainly on nonparametric regression, especially on point estimation. In this paper, the construction of confidence sets for the level set of linear regression is considered. In particular, $1-\alpha$ level upper, lower and two-sided confidence sets are constructed for the normal-error linear regression. It is shown that these confidence sets can be easily constructed from the corresponding $1-\alpha$ level simultaneous confidence bands. It is also pointed out that the construction method is readily applicable to other parametric regression models where the mean response depends on a linear predictor through a monotonic link function, which include generalized linear models, linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models. Therefore the method proposed in this paper is widely applicable. Examples are given to illustrate the method.
We study the problem of variance estimation in general graph-structured problems. First, we develop a linear time estimator for the homoscedastic case that can consistently estimate the variance in general graphs. We show that our estimator attains minimax rates for the chain and 2D grid graphs when the mean signal has a total variation with canonical scaling. Furthermore, we provide general upper bounds on the mean squared error performance of the fused lasso estimator in general graphs under a moment condition and a bound on the tail behavior of the errors. These upper bounds allow us to generalize for broader classes of distributions, such as sub-Exponential, many existing results on the fused lasso that are only known to hold with the assumption that errors are sub-Gaussian random variables. Exploiting our upper bounds, we then study a simple total variation regularization estimator for estimating the signal of variances in the heteroscedastic case. Our results show that the variance estimator attains minimax rates for estimating signals of bounded variation in grid graphs, $K$-nearest neighbor graphs with very mild assumptions, and it is consistent for estimating the variances in any connected graph. In addition, extensive numerical results show that our proposed estimators perform reasonably well in a variety of graph-structured models.
Biopharmaceutical manufacturing is a rapidly growing industry with impact in virtually all branches of medicines. Biomanufacturing processes require close monitoring and control, in the presence of complex bioprocess dynamics with many interdependent factors, as well as extremely limited data due to the high cost of experiments as well as the novelty of personalized bio-drugs. We develop a novel model-based reinforcement learning framework that can achieve human-level control in low-data environments. The model uses a dynamic Bayesian network to capture causal interdependencies between factors and predict how the effects of different inputs propagate through the pathways of the bioprocess mechanisms. This enables the design of process control policies that are both interpretable and robust against model risk. We present a computationally efficient, provably convergence stochastic gradient method for optimizing such policies. Validation is conducted on a realistic application with a multi-dimensional, continuous state variable.
Support vector machine (SVM) is a powerful classification method that has achieved great success in many fields. Since its performance can be seriously impaired by redundant covariates, model selection techniques are widely used for SVM with high dimensional covariates. As an alternative to model selection, significant progress has been made in the area of model averaging in the past decades. Yet no frequentist model averaging method was considered for SVM. This work aims to fill the gap and to propose a frequentist model averaging procedure for SVM which selects the optimal weight by cross validation. Even when the number of covariates diverges at an exponential rate of the sample size, we show asymptotic optimality of the proposed method in the sense that the ratio of its hinge loss to the lowest possible loss converges to one. We also derive the convergence rate which provides more insights to model averaging. Compared to model selection methods of SVM which require a tedious but critical task of tuning parameter selection, the model averaging method avoids the task and shows promising performances in the empirical studies.
Learning controllers from data for stabilizing dynamical systems typically follows a two step process of first identifying a model and then constructing a controller based on the identified model. However, learning models means identifying generic descriptions of the dynamics of systems, which can require large amounts of data and extracting information that are unnecessary for the specific task of stabilization. The contribution of this work is to show that if a linear dynamical system has dimension (McMillan degree) $n$, then there always exist $n$ states from which a stabilizing feedback controller can be constructed, independent of the dimension of the representation of the observed states and the number of inputs. By building on previous work, this finding implies that any linear dynamical system can be stabilized from fewer observed states than the minimal number of states required for learning a model of the dynamics. The theoretical findings are demonstrated with numerical experiments that show the stabilization of the flow behind a cylinder from less data than necessary for learning a model.
In this paper, we study a sequential decision making problem faced by e-commerce carriers related to when to send out a vehicle from the central depot to serve customer requests, and in which order to provide the service, under the assumption that the time at which parcels arrive at the depot is stochastic and dynamic. The objective is to maximize the number of parcels that can be delivered during the service hours. We propose two reinforcement learning approaches for solving this problem, one based on a policy function approximation (PFA) and the second on a value function approximation (VFA). Both methods are combined with a look-ahead strategy, in which future release dates are sampled in a Monte-Carlo fashion and a tailored batch approach is used to approximate the value of future states. Our PFA and VFA make a good use of branch-and-cut-based exact methods to improve the quality of decisions. We also establish sufficient conditions for partial characterization of optimal policy and integrate them into PFA/VFA. In an empirical study based on 720 benchmark instances, we conduct a competitive analysis using upper bounds with perfect information and we show that PFA and VFA greatly outperform two alternative myopic approaches. Overall, PFA provides best solutions, while VFA (which benefits from a two-stage stochastic optimization model) achieves a better tradeoff between solution quality and computing time.
We study the problem of learning nonparametric distributions in a finite mixture, and establish tight bounds on the sample complexity for learning the component distributions in such models. Namely, we are given i.i.d. samples from a pdf $f$ where $$ f=\sum_{i=1}^k w_i f_i, \quad\sum_{i=1}^k w_i=1, \quad w_i>0 $$ and we are interested in learning each component $f_i$. Without any assumptions on $f_i$, this problem is ill-posed. In order to identify the components $f_i$, we assume that each $f_i$ can be written as a convolution of a Gaussian and a compactly supported density $\nu_i$ with $\text{supp}(\nu_i)\cap \text{supp}(\nu_j)=\emptyset$. Our main result shows that $(\frac{1}{\varepsilon})^{\Omega(\log\log \frac{1}{\varepsilon})}$ samples are required for estimating each $f_i$. Unlike parametric mixtures, the difficulty does not arise from the order $k$ or small weights $w_i$, and unlike nonparametric density estimation it does not arise from the curse of dimensionality, irregularity, or inhomogeneity. The proof relies on a fast rate for approximation with Gaussians, which may be of independent interest. To show this is tight, we also propose an algorithm that uses $(\frac{1}{\varepsilon})^{O(\log\log \frac{1}{\varepsilon})}$ samples to estimate each $f_i$. Unlike existing approaches to learning latent variable models based on moment-matching and tensor methods, our proof instead involves a delicate analysis of an ill-conditioned linear system via orthogonal functions. Combining these bounds, we conclude that the optimal sample complexity of this problem properly lies in between polynomial and exponential, which is not common in learning theory.
This paper proposes a data-driven machine learning framework for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in epidemic models based on two key ingredients: (i) prior parameters learning via the cross-entropy method and (ii) update of the model calibration and uncertainty propagation through approximate Bayesian computation. The effectiveness of the new methodology is illustrated with the aid of actual data from COVID-19 epidemic at Rio de Janeiro city in Brazil, employing an ordinary differential equation-based model with a generalized SEIR-type mechanistic structure that includes time-dependent transmission rate, asymptomatics, and hospitalizations. A minimization problem with two cost terms (number of hospitalizations and deaths) is formulated, and twelve parameters are identified. The calibrated model provides a consistent description of the available data, able to extrapolate forecasts over a few weeks, which makes the proposed methodology very appealing for use in the context of real-time epidemic modeling.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
In recent years, mobile devices have gained increasingly development with stronger computation capability and larger storage. Some of the computation-intensive machine learning and deep learning tasks can now be run on mobile devices. To take advantage of the resources available on mobile devices and preserve users' privacy, the idea of mobile distributed machine learning is proposed. It uses local hardware resources and local data to solve machine learning sub-problems on mobile devices, and only uploads computation results instead of original data to contribute to the optimization of the global model. This architecture can not only relieve computation and storage burden on servers, but also protect the users' sensitive information. Another benefit is the bandwidth reduction, as various kinds of local data can now participate in the training process without being uploaded to the server. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey on recent studies of mobile distributed machine learning. We survey a number of widely-used mobile distributed machine learning methods. We also present an in-depth discussion on the challenges and future directions in this area. We believe that this survey can demonstrate a clear overview of mobile distributed machine learning and provide guidelines on applying mobile distributed machine learning to real applications.
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