This paper introduces an objective for optimizing proper scoring rules. The objective is to maximize the increase in payoff of a forecaster who exerts a binary level of effort to refine a posterior belief from a prior belief. In this framework we characterize optimal scoring rules in simple settings, give efficient algorithms for computing optimal scoring rules in complex settings, and identify simple scoring rules that are approximately optimal. In comparison, standard scoring rules in theory and practice -- for example the quadratic rule, scoring rules for the expectation, and scoring rules for multiple tasks that are averages of single-task scoring rules -- can be very far from optimal.
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In high-dimensional prediction settings, it remains challenging to reliably estimate the test performance. To address this challenge, a novel performance estimation framework is presented. This framework, called Learn2Evaluate, is based on learning curves by fitting a smooth monotone curve depicting test performance as a function of the sample size. Learn2Evaluate has several advantages compared to commonly applied performance estimation methodologies. Firstly, a learning curve offers a graphical overview of a learner. This overview assists in assessing the potential benefit of adding training samples and it provides a more complete comparison between learners than performance estimates at a fixed subsample size. Secondly, a learning curve facilitates in estimating the performance at the total sample size rather than a subsample size. Thirdly, Learn2Evaluate allows the computation of a theoretically justified and useful lower confidence bound. Furthermore, this bound may be tightened by performing a bias correction. The benefits of Learn2Evaluate are illustrated by a simulation study and applications to omics data.
A recent cohort study revealed a positive correlate between major structural birth defects in infants and a certain medication taken by pregnant women. To draw valid causal inference, an outstanding problem to overcome was the missing birth defect outcomes among pregnancy losses resulting from spontaneous abortion. This led to missing not at random since, according to the theory of "terathanasia", a defected fetus is more likely to be spontaneously aborted. Other complications in the data included left truncation, right censoring, observational nature, and rare events. In addition, the previous analysis stratified on live birth against spontaneous abortion, which was itself a post-exposure variable and hence did not lead to a causal interpretation of the stratified results. In this paper we aim to estimate and provide inference for the causal parameters of scientific interest, including the principal effects, making use of the missing data mechanism informed by "terathanasia". The rare events with missing outcomes led to multiple sensitivity analyses where the causal parameters can be estimated with better confidence in each setting. Our findings should shed light on how studies on causal effects of medication or other exposures during pregnancy may be analyzed using state-of-the-art methodologies.
In this paper, we study the problem of conducting self-supervised learning for node representation learning on non-homophilous graphs. Existing self-supervised learning methods typically assume the graph is homophilous where linked nodes often belong to the same class or have similar features. However, such assumptions of homophily do not always hold true in real-world graphs. We address this problem by developing a decoupled self-supervised learning (DSSL) framework for graph neural networks. DSSL imitates a generative process of nodes and links from latent variable modeling of the semantic structure, which decouples different underlying semantics between different neighborhoods into the self-supervised node learning process. Our DSSL framework is agnostic to the encoders and does not need prefabricated augmentations, thus is flexible to different graphs. To effectively optimize the framework with latent variables, we derive the evidence lower-bound of the self-supervised objective and develop a scalable training algorithm with variational inference. We provide a theoretical analysis to justify that DSSL enjoys better downstream performance. Extensive experiments on various types of graph benchmarks demonstrate that our proposed framework can significantly achieve better performance compared with competitive self-supervised learning baselines.
Prior work has proposed a simple strategy for reinforcement learning (RL): label experience with the outcomes achieved in that experience, and then imitate the relabeled experience. These outcome-conditioned imitation learning methods are appealing because of their simplicity, strong performance, and close ties with supervised learning. However, it remains unclear how these methods relate to the standard RL objective, reward maximization. In this paper, we prove that existing outcome-conditioned imitation learning methods do not necessarily improve the policy; rather, in some settings they can decrease the expected reward. Nonetheless, we show that a simple modification results in a method that does guarantee policy improvement, under some assumptions. Our aim is not to develop an entirely new method, but rather to explain how a variant of outcome-conditioned imitation learning can be used to maximize rewards.
Topological loss based on persistent homology has shown promise in various applications. A topological loss enforces the model to achieve certain desired topological property. Despite its empirical success, less is known about the optimization behavior of the loss. In fact, the topological loss involves combinatorial configurations that may oscillate during optimization. In this paper, we introduce a general purpose regularized topology-aware loss. We propose a novel regularization term and also modify existing topological loss. These contributions lead to a new loss function that not only enforces the model to have desired topological behavior, but also achieves satisfying convergence behavior. Our main theoretical result guarantees that the loss can be optimized efficiently, under mild assumptions.
Achieving safe and reliable autonomous driving relies greatly on the ability to achieve an accurate and robust perception system; however, this cannot be fully realized without precisely calibrated sensors. Environmental and operational conditions as well as improper maintenance can produce calibration errors inhibiting sensor fusion and, consequently, degrading the perception performance. Traditionally, sensor calibration is performed in a controlled environment with one or more known targets. Such a procedure can only be carried out in between drives and requires manual operation; a tedious task if needed to be conducted on a regular basis. This sparked a recent interest in online targetless methods, capable of yielding a set of geometric transformations based on perceived environmental features, however, the required redundancy in sensing modalities makes this task even more challenging, as the features captured by each modality and their distinctiveness may vary. We present a holistic approach to performing joint calibration of a camera-lidar-radar trio. Leveraging prior knowledge and physical properties of these sensing modalities together with semantic information, we propose two targetless calibration methods within a cost minimization framework once via direct online optimization, and second via self-supervised learning (SSL).
Strategic voting, or manipulation, is the process by which a voter misrepresents his preferences in an attempt to elect an outcome that he considers preferable to the outcome under sincere voting. It is generally agreed that manipulation is a negative feature of elections, and much effort has been spent on gauging the vulnerability of voting rules to manipulation. However, the question of why manipulation is actually bad is less commonly asked. One way to measure the effect of manipulation on an outcome is by comparing a numeric measure of social welfare under sincere behaviour to that in the presence of a manipulator. In this paper we conduct numeric experiments to assess the effects of manipulation on social welfare under scoring rules. We find that manipulation is usually negative, and in most cases the optimum rule with a manipulator is different to the one with sincere voters.
Sentence scoring aims at measuring the likelihood score of a sentence and is widely used in many natural language processing scenarios, like reranking, which is to select the best sentence from multiple candidates. Previous works on sentence scoring mainly adopted either causal language modeling (CLM) like GPT or masked language modeling (MLM) like BERT, which have some limitations: 1) CLM only utilizes unidirectional information for the probability estimation of a sentence without considering bidirectional context, which affects the scoring quality; 2) MLM can only estimate the probability of partial tokens at a time and thus requires multiple forward passes to estimate the probability of the whole sentence, which incurs large computation and time cost. In this paper, we propose \textit{Transcormer} -- a Transformer model with a novel \textit{sliding language modeling} (SLM) for sentence scoring. Specifically, our SLM adopts a triple-stream self-attention mechanism to estimate the probability of all tokens in a sentence with bidirectional context and only requires a single forward pass. SLM can avoid the limitations of CLM (only unidirectional context) and MLM (multiple forward passes) and inherit their advantages, and thus achieve high effectiveness and efficiency in scoring. Experimental results on multiple tasks demonstrate that our method achieves better performance than other language modelings.
Evaluating the individual movements for teammates in soccer players is crucial for assessing teamwork, scouting, and fan engagement. It has been said that players in a 90-min game do not have the ball for about 87 minutes on average. However, it has remained difficult to evaluate an attacking player without receiving the ball, and to reveal how movement contributes to the creation of scoring opportunities for teammates. In this paper, we evaluate players who create off-ball scoring opportunities by comparing actual movements with the reference movements generated via trajectory prediction. First, we predict the trajectories of players using a graph variational recurrent neural network that can accurately model the relationship between players and predict the long-term trajectory. Next, based on the difference in the modified off-ball evaluation index between the actual and the predicted trajectory as a reference, we evaluate how the actual movement contributes to scoring opportunity compared to the predicted movement. For verification, we examined the relationship with the annual salary, the goals, and the rating in the game by experts for all games of a team in a professional soccer league in a year. The results show that the annual salary and the proposed indicator correlated significantly, which could not be explained by the existing indicators and goals. Our results suggest the effectiveness of the proposed method as an indicator for a player without the ball to create a scoring chance for teammates.
Recent years have witnessed significant advances in technologies and services in modern network applications, including smart grid management, wireless communication, cybersecurity as well as multi-agent autonomous systems. Considering the heterogeneous nature of networked entities, emerging network applications call for game-theoretic models and learning-based approaches in order to create distributed network intelligence that responds to uncertainties and disruptions in a dynamic or an adversarial environment. This paper articulates the confluence of networks, games and learning, which establishes a theoretical underpinning for understanding multi-agent decision-making over networks. We provide an selective overview of game-theoretic learning algorithms within the framework of stochastic approximation theory, and associated applications in some representative contexts of modern network systems, such as the next generation wireless communication networks, the smart grid and distributed machine learning. In addition to existing research works on game-theoretic learning over networks, we highlight several new angles and research endeavors on learning in games that are related to recent developments in artificial intelligence. Some of the new angles extrapolate from our own research interests. The overall objective of the paper is to provide the reader a clear picture of the strengths and challenges of adopting game-theoretic learning methods within the context of network systems, and further to identify fruitful future research directions on both theoretical and applied studies.
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