Recurring outbreaks of COVID-19 have posed enduring effects on global society, which calls for a predictor of pandemic waves using various data with early availability. Existing prediction models that forecast the first outbreak wave using mobility data may not be applicable to the multiwave prediction, because the evidence in the USA and Japan has shown that mobility patterns across different waves exhibit varying relationships with fluctuations in infection cases. Therefore, to predict the multiwave pandemic, we propose a Social Awareness-Based Graph Neural Network (SAB-GNN) that considers the decay of symptom-related web search frequency to capture the changes in public awareness across multiple waves. Our model combines GNN and LSTM to model the complex relationships among urban districts, inter-district mobility patterns, web search history, and future COVID-19 infections. We train our model to predict future pandemic outbreaks in the Tokyo area using its mobility and web search data from April 2020 to May 2021 across four pandemic waves collected by Yahoo Japan Corporation under strict privacy protection rules. Results demonstrate our model outperforms state-of-the-art baselines such as ST-GNN, MPNN, and GraphLSTM. Though our model is not computationally expensive (only 3 layers and 10 hidden neurons), the proposed model enables public agencies to anticipate and prepare for future pandemic outbreaks.
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Social influence prediction has permeated many domains, including marketing, behavior prediction, recommendation systems, and more. However, traditional methods of predicting social influence not only require domain expertise,they also rely on extracting user features, which can be very tedious. Additionally, graph convolutional networks (GCNs), which deals with graph data in non-Euclidean space, are not directly applicable to Euclidean space. To overcome these problems, we extended DeepInf such that it can predict the social influence of COVID-19 via the transition probability of the page rank domain. Furthermore, our implementation gives rise to a deep learning-based personalized propagation algorithm, called DeepPP. The resulting algorithm combines the personalized propagation of a neural prediction model with the approximate personalized propagation of a neural prediction model from page rank analysis. Four social networks from different domains as well as two COVID-19 datasets were used to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Compared to other baseline methods, DeepPP provides more accurate social influence predictions. Further, experiments demonstrate that DeepPP can be applied to real-world prediction data for COVID-19.
We present a systematic refactoring of the conventional treatment of privacy analyses, basing it on mathematical concepts from the framework of Quantitative Information Flow (QIF). The approach we suggest brings three principal advantages: it is flexible, allowing for precise quantification and comparison of privacy risks for attacks both known and novel; it can be computationally tractable for very large, longitudinal datasets; and its results are explainable both to politicians and to the general public. We apply our approach to a very large case study: the Educational Censuses of Brazil, curated by the governmental agency INEP, which comprise over 90 attributes of approximately 50 million individuals released longitudinally every year since 2007. These datasets have only very recently (2018-2021) attracted legislation to regulate their privacy -- while at the same time continuing to maintain the openness that had been sought in Brazilian society. INEP's reaction to that legislation was the genesis of our project with them. In our conclusions here we share the scientific, technical, and communication lessons we learned in the process.
Social media marketing plays a vital role in promoting brand and product values to wide audiences. In order to boost their advertising revenues, global media buying platforms such as Facebook Ads constantly reduce the reach of branded organic posts, pushing brands to spend more on paid media ads. In order to run organic and paid social media marketing efficiently, it is necessary to understand the audience, tailoring the content to fit their interests and online behaviours, which is impossible to do manually at a large scale. At the same time, various personality type categorization schemes such as the Myers-Briggs Personality Type indicator make it possible to reveal the dependencies between personality traits and user content preferences on a wider scale by categorizing audience behaviours in a unified and structured manner. This problem is yet to be studied in depth by the research community, while the level of impact of different personality traits on content recommendation accuracy has not been widely utilised and comprehensively evaluated so far. Specifically, in this work we investigate the impact of human personality traits on the content recommendation model by applying a novel personality-driven multi-view content recommender system called Personality Content Marketing Recommender Engine, or PersiC. Our experimental results and real-world case study demonstrate not just PersiC's ability to perform efficient human personality-driven multi-view content recommendation, but also allow for actionable digital ad strategy recommendations, which when deployed are able to improve digital advertising efficiency by over 420% as compared to the original human-guided approach.
Behavior prediction based on historical behavioral data have practical real-world significance. It has been applied in recommendation, predicting academic performance, etc. With the refinement of user data description, the development of new functions, and the fusion of multiple data sources, heterogeneous behavioral data which contain multiple types of behaviors become more and more common. In this paper, we aim to incorporate heterogeneous user behaviors and social influences for behavior predictions. To this end, this paper proposes a variant of Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) which can consider context information while modeling a behavior sequence, a projection mechanism which can model multi-faceted relationships among different types of behaviors, and a multi-faceted attention mechanism which can dynamically find out informative periods from different facets. Many kinds of behavioral data belong to spatio-temporal data. An unsupervised way to construct a social behavior graph based on spatio-temporal data and to model social influences is proposed. Moreover, a residual learning-based decoder is designed to automatically construct multiple high-order cross features based on social behavior representation and other types of behavior representations. Qualitative and quantitative experiments on real-world datasets have demonstrated the effectiveness of this model.
Self-supervised learning (SSL) recently has achieved outstanding success on recommendation. By setting up an auxiliary task (either predictive or contrastive), SSL can discover supervisory signals from the raw data without human annotation, which greatly mitigates the problem of sparse user-item interactions. However, most SSL-based recommendation models rely on general-purpose auxiliary tasks, e.g., maximizing correspondence between node representations learned from the original and perturbed interaction graphs, which are explicitly irrelevant to the recommendation task. Accordingly, the rich semantics reflected by social relationships and item categories, which lie in the recommendation data-based heterogeneous graphs, are not fully exploited. To explore recommendation-specific auxiliary tasks, we first quantitatively analyze the heterogeneous interaction data and find a strong positive correlation between the interactions and the number of user-item paths induced by meta-paths. Based on the finding, we design two auxiliary tasks that are tightly coupled with the target task (one is predictive and the other one is contrastive) towards connecting recommendation with the self-supervision signals hiding in the positive correlation. Finally, a model-agnostic DUal-Auxiliary Learning (DUAL) framework which unifies the SSL and recommendation tasks is developed. The extensive experiments conducted on three real-world datasets demonstrate that DUAL can significantly improve recommendation, reaching the state-of-the-art performance.
Graph machine learning has been extensively studied in both academic and industry. However, as the literature on graph learning booms with a vast number of emerging methods and techniques, it becomes increasingly difficult to manually design the optimal machine learning algorithm for different graph-related tasks. To tackle the challenge, automated graph machine learning, which aims at discovering the best hyper-parameter and neural architecture configuration for different graph tasks/data without manual design, is gaining an increasing number of attentions from the research community. In this paper, we extensively discuss automated graph machine approaches, covering hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) and neural architecture search (NAS) for graph machine learning. We briefly overview existing libraries designed for either graph machine learning or automated machine learning respectively, and further in depth introduce AutoGL, our dedicated and the world's first open-source library for automated graph machine learning. Last but not least, we share our insights on future research directions for automated graph machine learning. This paper is the first systematic and comprehensive discussion of approaches, libraries as well as directions for automated graph machine learning.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming integrated into military Command and Control (C2) systems as a strategic priority for many defence forces. The successful implementation of AI is promising to herald a significant leap in C2 agility through automation. However, realistic expectations need to be set on what AI can achieve in the foreseeable future. This paper will argue that AI could lead to a fragility trap, whereby the delegation of C2 functions to an AI could increase the fragility of C2, resulting in catastrophic strategic failures. This calls for a new framework for AI in C2 to avoid this trap. We will argue that antifragility along with agility should form the core design principles for AI-enabled C2 systems. This duality is termed Agile, Antifragile, AI-Enabled Command and Control (A3IC2). An A3IC2 system continuously improves its capacity to perform in the face of shocks and surprises through overcompensation from feedback during the C2 decision-making cycle. An A3IC2 system will not only be able to survive within a complex operational environment, it will also thrive, benefiting from the inevitable shocks and volatility of war.
Link prediction on knowledge graphs (KGs) is a key research topic. Previous work mainly focused on binary relations, paying less attention to higher-arity relations although they are ubiquitous in real-world KGs. This paper considers link prediction upon n-ary relational facts and proposes a graph-based approach to this task. The key to our approach is to represent the n-ary structure of a fact as a small heterogeneous graph, and model this graph with edge-biased fully-connected attention. The fully-connected attention captures universal inter-vertex interactions, while with edge-aware attentive biases to particularly encode the graph structure and its heterogeneity. In this fashion, our approach fully models global and local dependencies in each n-ary fact, and hence can more effectively capture associations therein. Extensive evaluation verifies the effectiveness and superiority of our approach. It performs substantially and consistently better than current state-of-the-art across a variety of n-ary relational benchmarks. Our code is publicly available.
In recent years, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), which can naturally integrate node information and topological structure, have been demonstrated to be powerful in learning on graph data. These advantages of GNNs provide great potential to advance social recommendation since data in social recommender systems can be represented as user-user social graph and user-item graph; and learning latent factors of users and items is the key. However, building social recommender systems based on GNNs faces challenges. For example, the user-item graph encodes both interactions and their associated opinions; social relations have heterogeneous strengths; users involve in two graphs (e.g., the user-user social graph and the user-item graph). To address the three aforementioned challenges simultaneously, in this paper, we present a novel graph neural network framework (GraphRec) for social recommendations. In particular, we provide a principled approach to jointly capture interactions and opinions in the user-item graph and propose the framework GraphRec, which coherently models two graphs and heterogeneous strengths. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework GraphRec. Our code is available at \url{//github.com/wenqifan03/GraphRec-WWW19}
In this paper, we propose a deep reinforcement learning framework called GCOMB to learn algorithms that can solve combinatorial problems over large graphs. GCOMB mimics the greedy algorithm in the original problem and incrementally constructs a solution. The proposed framework utilizes Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to generate node embeddings that predicts the potential nodes in the solution set from the entire node set. These embeddings enable an efficient training process to learn the greedy policy via Q-learning. Through extensive evaluation on several real and synthetic datasets containing up to a million nodes, we establish that GCOMB is up to 41% better than the state of the art, up to seven times faster than the greedy algorithm, robust and scalable to large dynamic networks.
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