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Meta-analysis is routinely performed in many scientific disciplines. This analysis is attractive since discoveries are possible even when all the individual studies are underpowered. However, the meta-analytic discoveries may be entirely driven by signal in a single study, and thus non-replicable. Although the great majority of meta-analyses carried out to date do not infer on the replicability of their findings, it is possible to do so. We provide a selective overview of analyses that can be carried out towards establishing replicability of the scientific findings. We describe methods for the setting where a single outcome is examined in multiple studies (as is common in systematic reviews of medical interventions), as well as for the setting where multiple studies each examine multiple features (as in genomics applications). We also discuss some of the current shortcomings and future directions.

Turing's 1950 paper introduced the famed "imitation game", a test originally proposed to capture the notion of machine intelligence. Over the years, the Turing test spawned a large amount of interest, which resulted in several variants, as well as heated discussions and controversy. Here we sidestep the question of whether a particular machine can be labeled intelligent, or can be said to match human capabilities in a given context. Instead, but inspired by Turing, we draw attention to the seemingly simpler challenge of determining whether one is interacting with a human or with a machine, in the context of everyday life. We are interested in reflecting upon the importance of this Human-or-Machine question and the use one may make of a reliable answer thereto. Whereas Turing's original test is widely considered to be more of a thought experiment, the Human-or-Machine question as discussed here has obvious practical significance. And while the jury is still not in regarding the possibility of machines that can mimic human behavior with high fidelity in everyday contexts, we argue that near-term exploration of the issues raised here can contribute to development methods for computerized systems, and may also improve our understanding of human behavior in general.

Factor analysis provides a canonical framework for imposing lower-dimensional structure such as sparse covariance in high-dimensional data. High-dimensional data on the same set of variables are often collected under different conditions, for instance in reproducing studies across research groups. In such cases, it is natural to seek to learn the shared versus condition-specific structure. Existing hierarchical extensions of factor analysis have been proposed, but face practical issues including identifiability problems. To address these shortcomings, we propose a class of SUbspace Factor Analysis (SUFA) models, which characterize variation across groups at the level of a lower-dimensional subspace. We prove that the proposed class of SUFA models lead to identifiability of the shared versus group-specific components of the covariance, and study their posterior contraction properties. Taking a Bayesian approach, these contributions are developed alongside efficient posterior computation algorithms. Our sampler fully integrates out latent variables, is easily parallelizable and has complexity that does not depend on sample size. We illustrate the methods through application to integration of multiple gene expression datasets relevant to immunology.

For clinical studies with continuous outcomes, when the data are potentially skewed, researchers may choose to report the whole or part of the five-number summary (the sample median, the first and third quartiles, and the minimum and maximum values) rather than the sample mean and standard deviation. In the recent literature, it is often suggested to transform the five-number summary back to the sample mean and standard deviation, which can be subsequently used in a meta-analysis. However, if a study contains skewed data, this transformation and hence the conclusions from the meta-analysis are unreliable. Therefore, we introduce a novel method for detecting the skewness of data using only the five-number summary and the sample size, and meanwhile propose a new flow chart to handle the skewed studies in a different manner. We further show by simulations that our skewness tests are able to control the type I error rates and provide good statistical power, followed by a simulated meta-analysis and a real data example that illustrate the usefulness of our new method in meta-analysis and evidence-based medicine.

Interactive analysis systems provide efficient and accessible means by which users of varying technical experience can comfortably manipulate and analyze data using interactive widgets. Widgets are elements of interaction within a user interface (e.g. scrollbar, button, etc). Interactions with these widgets produce database queries whose results determine the subsequent changes made to the current visualization made by the user. In this paper, we present a tool that extends IDEBench to ingest visualization interfaces and a dataset, and estimate the expected database load that would be generated by real users. Our tool analyzes the interactive capabilities of the visualization and creates the queries that support the various interactions. We began with a proof of concept implementation of every interaction widget, which led us to define three distinct sets of query templates that can support all interactions. We then show that these templates can be layered to imitate various interfaces and tailored to any dataset. Secondly, we simulate how users would interact with the proposed interface and report on the strain that such use would place on the database management system.

The question of whether $Y$ can be predicted based on $X$ often arises and while a well adjusted model may perform well on observed data, the risk of overfitting always exists, leading to poor generalization error on unseen data. This paper proposes a rigorous permutation test to assess the credibility of high $R^2$ values in regression models, which can also be applied to any measure of goodness of fit, without the need for sample splitting, by generating new pairings of $(X_i, Y_j)$ and providing an overall interpretation of the model's accuracy. It introduces a new formulation of the null hypothesis and justification for the test, which distinguishes it from previous literature. The theoretical findings are applied to both simulated data and sensor data of tennis serves in an experimental context. The simulation study underscores how the available information affects the test, showing that the less informative the predictors, the lower the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, and emphasizing that detecting weaker dependence between variables requires a sufficient sample size.

Interference is a ubiquitous problem in experiments conducted on two-sided content marketplaces, such as Douyin (China's analog of TikTok). In many cases, creators are the natural unit of experimentation, but creators interfere with each other through competition for viewers' limited time and attention. "Naive" estimators currently used in practice simply ignore the interference, but in doing so incur bias on the order of the treatment effect. We formalize the problem of inference in such experiments as one of policy evaluation. Off-policy estimators, while unbiased, are impractically high variance. We introduce a novel Monte-Carlo estimator, based on "Differences-in-Qs" (DQ) techniques, which achieves bias that is second-order in the treatment effect, while remaining sample-efficient to estimate. On the theoretical side, our contribution is to develop a generalized theory of Taylor expansions for policy evaluation, which extends DQ theory to all major MDP formulations. On the practical side, we implement our estimator on Douyin's experimentation platform, and in the process develop DQ into a truly "plug-and-play" estimator for interference in real-world settings: one which provides robust, low-bias, low-variance treatment effect estimates; admits computationally cheap, asymptotically exact uncertainty quantification; and reduces MSE by 99\% compared to the best existing alternatives in our applications.

Over the past half century, there have been several false dawns during which the "arrival" of world-changing artificial intelligence (AI) has been heralded. Tempting fate, the authors believe the age of AI has, indeed, finally arrived. Powerful image generators, such as DALL-E2 and Midjourney have suddenly allowed anyone with access the ability easily to create rich and complex art. In a similar vein, text generators, such as GPT3.5 (including ChatGPT) and BLOOM, allow users to compose detailed written descriptions of many topics of interest. And, it is even possible now for a person without extensive expertise in writing software to use AI to generate code capable of myriad applications. While AI will continue to evolve and improve, probably at a rapid rate, the current state of AI is already ushering in profound changes to many different sectors of society. Every new technology challenges the ability of humanity to govern it wisely. However, governance is usually viewed as both possible and necessary due to the disruption new technology often poses to social structures, industries, the environment, and other important human concerns. In this article, we offer an analysis of a range of interactions between AI and governance, with the hope that wise decisions may be made that maximize benefits and minimize costs. The article addresses two main aspects of this relationship: the governance of AI by humanity, and the governance of humanity by AI. The approach we have taken is itself informed by AI, as this article was written collaboratively by the authors and ChatGPT.

A number of information retrieval studies have been done to assess which statistical techniques are appropriate for comparing systems. However, these studies are focused on TREC-style experiments, which typically have fewer than 100 topics. There is no similar line of work for large search and recommendation experiments; such studies typically have thousands of topics or users and much sparser relevance judgements, so it is not clear if recommendations for analyzing traditional TREC experiments apply to these settings. In this paper, we empirically study the behavior of significance tests with large search and recommendation evaluation data. Our results show that the Wilcoxon and Sign tests show significantly higher Type-1 error rates for large sample sizes than the bootstrap, randomization and t-tests, which were more consistent with the expected error rate. While the statistical tests displayed differences in their power for smaller sample sizes, they showed no difference in their power for large sample sizes. We recommend the sign and Wilcoxon tests should not be used to analyze large scale evaluation results. Our result demonstrate that with Top-N recommendation and large search evaluation data, most tests would have a 100% chance of finding statistically significant results. Therefore, the effect size should be used to determine practical or scientific significance.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.