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Recent work introduced deep kernel processes as an entirely kernel-based alternative to NNs (Aitchison et al. 2020). Deep kernel processes flexibly learn good top-layer representations by alternately sampling the kernel from a distribution over positive semi-definite matrices and performing nonlinear transformations. A particular deep kernel process, the deep Wishart process (DWP), is of particular interest because its prior can be made equivalent to deep Gaussian process (DGP) priors for kernels that can be expressed entirely in terms of Gram matrices. However, inference in DWPs has not yet been possible due to the lack of sufficiently flexible distributions over positive semi-definite matrices. Here, we give a novel approach to obtaining flexible distributions over positive semi-definite matrices by generalising the Bartlett decomposition of the Wishart probability density. We use this new distribution to develop an approximate posterior for the DWP that includes dependency across layers. We develop a doubly-stochastic inducing-point inference scheme for the DWP and show experimentally that inference in the DWP can improve performance over doing inference in a DGP with the equivalent prior.

Quality control and quality assurance are challenges in Direct Metal Laser Melting (DMLM). Intermittent machine diagnostics and downstream part inspections catch problems after undue cost has been incurred processing defective parts. In this paper we demonstrate two methodologies for in-process fault detection and part quality prediction that can be readily deployed on existing commercial DMLM systems with minimal hardware modification. Novel features were derived from the time series of common photodiode sensors along with standard machine control signals. A Bayesian approach attributes measurements to one of multiple process states and a least squares regression model predicts severity of certain material defects.

The onset of rheumatic diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis is typically subclinical, which results in challenging early detection of the disease. However, characteristic changes in the anatomy can be detected using imaging techniques such as MRI or CT. Modern imaging techniques such as chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) MRI drive the hope to improve early detection even further through the imaging of metabolites in the body. To image small structures in the joints of patients, typically one of the first regions where changes due to the disease occur, a high resolution for the CEST MR imaging is necessary. Currently, however, CEST MR suffers from an inherently low resolution due to the underlying physical constraints of the acquisition. In this work we compared established up-sampling techniques to neural network-based super-resolution approaches. We could show, that neural networks are able to learn the mapping from low-resolution to high-resolution unsaturated CEST images considerably better than present methods. On the test set a PSNR of 32.29dB (+10%), a NRMSE of 0.14 (+28%), and a SSIM of 0.85 (+15%) could be achieved using a ResNet neural network, improving the baseline considerably. This work paves the way for the prospective investigation of neural networks for super-resolution CEST MRI and, followingly, might lead to a earlier detection of the onset of rheumatic diseases.

Despite the recent progress in the field of causal inference, to date there is no agreed upon methodology to glean treatment effect estimation from observational data. The consequence on clinical practice is that, when lacking results from a randomized trial, medical personnel is left without guidance on what seems to be effective in a real-world scenario. This article proposes a pragmatic methodology to obtain preliminary but robust estimation of treatment effect from observational studies, to provide front-line clinicians with a degree of confidence in their treatment strategy. Our study design is applied to an open problem, the estimation of treatment effect of the proning maneuver on COVID-19 Intensive Care patients.

Prescriptive process monitoring methods seek to optimize a business process by recommending interventions at runtime to prevent negative outcomes or poorly performing cases. In recent years, various prescriptive process monitoring methods have been proposed. This paper studies existing methods in this field via a Systematic Literature Review (SLR). In order to structure the field, the paper proposes a framework for characterizing prescriptive process monitoring methods according to their performance objective, performance metrics, intervention types, modeling techniques, data inputs, and intervention policies. The SLR provides insights into challenges and areas for future research that could enhance the usefulness and applicability of prescriptive process monitoring methods. The paper highlights the need to validate existing and new methods in real-world settings, to extend the types of interventions beyond those related to the temporal and cost perspectives, and to design policies that take into account causality and second-order effects.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

The aim of this paper is to offer the first systematic exploration and definition of equivalent causal models in the context where both models are not made up of the same variables. The idea is that two models are equivalent when they agree on all "essential" causal information that can be expressed using their common variables. I do so by focussing on the two main features of causal models, namely their structural relations and their functional relations. In particular, I define several relations of causal ancestry and several relations of causal sufficiency, and require that the most general of these relations are preserved across equivalent models.

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.

Many current applications use recommendations in order to modify the natural user behavior, such as to increase the number of sales or the time spent on a website. This results in a gap between the final recommendation objective and the classical setup where recommendation candidates are evaluated by their coherence with past user behavior, by predicting either the missing entries in the user-item matrix, or the most likely next event. To bridge this gap, we optimize a recommendation policy for the task of increasing the desired outcome versus the organic user behavior. We show this is equivalent to learning to predict recommendation outcomes under a fully random recommendation policy. To this end, we propose a new domain adaptation algorithm that learns from logged data containing outcomes from a biased recommendation policy and predicts recommendation outcomes according to random exposure. We compare our method against state-of-the-art factorization methods, in addition to new approaches of causal recommendation and show significant improvements.

Amortized inference has led to efficient approximate inference for large datasets. The quality of posterior inference is largely determined by two factors: a) the ability of the variational distribution to model the true posterior and b) the capacity of the recognition network to generalize inference over all datapoints. We analyze approximate inference in variational autoencoders in terms of these factors. We find that suboptimal inference is often due to amortizing inference rather than the limited complexity of the approximating distribution. We show that this is due partly to the generator learning to accommodate the choice of approximation. Furthermore, we show that the parameters used to increase the expressiveness of the approximation play a role in generalizing inference rather than simply improving the complexity of the approximation.