Due to severe societal and environmental impacts, wildfire prediction using multi-modal sensing data has become a highly sought-after data-analytical tool by various stakeholders (such as state governments and power utility companies) to achieve a more informed understanding of wildfire activities and plan preventive measures. A desirable algorithm should precisely predict fire risk and magnitude for a location in real time. In this paper, we develop a flexible spatio-temporal wildfire prediction framework using multi-modal time series data. We first predict the wildfire risk (the chance of a wildfire event) in real-time, considering the historical events using discrete mutually exciting point process models. Then we further develop a wildfire magnitude prediction set method based on the flexible distribution-free time-series conformal prediction (CP) approach. Theoretically, we prove a risk model parameter recovery guarantee, as well as coverage and set size guarantees for the CP sets. Through extensive real-data experiments with wildfire data in California, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods, as well as their flexibility and scalability in large regions.
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Conventional statistical wisdom established a well-understood relationship between model complexity and prediction error, typically presented as a U-shaped curve reflecting a transition between under- and overfitting regimes. However, motivated by the success of overparametrized neural networks, recent influential work has suggested this theory to be generally incomplete, introducing an additional regime that exhibits a second descent in test error as the parameter count p grows past sample size n - a phenomenon dubbed double descent. While most attention has naturally been given to the deep-learning setting, double descent was shown to emerge more generally across non-neural models: known cases include linear regression, trees, and boosting. In this work, we take a closer look at evidence surrounding these more classical statistical machine learning methods and challenge the claim that observed cases of double descent truly extend the limits of a traditional U-shaped complexity-generalization curve therein. We show that once careful consideration is given to what is being plotted on the x-axes of their double descent plots, it becomes apparent that there are implicitly multiple complexity axes along which the parameter count grows. We demonstrate that the second descent appears exactly (and only) when and where the transition between these underlying axes occurs, and that its location is thus not inherently tied to the interpolation threshold p=n. We then gain further insight by adopting a classical nonparametric statistics perspective. We interpret the investigated methods as smoothers and propose a generalized measure for the effective number of parameters they use on unseen examples, using which we find that their apparent double descent curves indeed fold back into more traditional convex shapes - providing a resolution to tensions between double descent and statistical intuition.
Typically, a randomized experiment is designed to test a hypothesis about the average treatment effect and sometimes hypotheses about treatment effect variation. The results of such a study may then be used to inform policy and practice for units not in the study. In this paper, we argue that given this use, randomized experiments should instead be designed to predict unit-specific treatment effects in a well-defined population. We then consider how different sampling processes and models affect the bias, variance, and mean squared prediction error of these predictions. The results indicate, for example, that problems of generalizability (differences between samples and populations) can greatly affect bias both in predictive models and in measures of error in these models. We also examine when the average treatment effect estimate outperforms unit-specific treatment effect predictive models and implications of this for planning studies.
Although the number of gaze estimation datasets is growing, the application of appearance-based gaze estimation methods is mostly limited to estimating the point of gaze on a screen. This is in part because most datasets are generated in a similar fashion, where the gaze target is on a screen close to camera's origin. In other applications such as assistive robotics or marketing research, the 3D point of gaze might not be close to the camera's origin, meaning models trained on current datasets do not generalize well to these tasks. We therefore suggest generating a textured tridimensional mesh of the face and rendering the training images from a virtual camera at a specific position and orientation related to the application as a mean of augmenting the existing datasets. In our tests, this lead to an average 47% decrease in gaze estimation angular error.
We give improved algorithms for maintaining edge-orientations of a fully-dynamic graph, such that the maximum out-degree is bounded. On one hand, we show how to orient the edges such that maximum out-degree is proportional to the arboricity $\alpha$ of the graph, in, either, an amortised update time of $O(\log^2 n \log \alpha)$, or a worst-case update time of $O(\log^3 n \log \alpha)$. On the other hand, motivated by applications including dynamic maximal matching, we obtain a different trade-off. Namely, the improved update time of either $O(\log n \log \alpha)$, amortised, or $O(\log ^2 n \log \alpha)$, worst-case, for the problem of maintaining an edge-orientation with at most $O(\alpha + \log n)$ out-edges per vertex. Finally, all of our algorithms naturally limit the recourse to be polylogarithmic in $n$ and $\alpha$. Our algorithms adapt to the current arboricity of the graph. Moreover, further analysis shows that they can yield a $(1 + \varepsilon)$-approximation of the arboricity or the subgraph density at the cost of increased update time.
As autonomous driving technology matures, end-to-end methodologies have emerged as a leading strategy, promising seamless integration from perception to control via deep learning. However, existing systems grapple with challenges such as unexpected open set environments and the complexity of black-box models. At the same time, the evolution of deep learning introduces larger, multimodal foundational models, offering multi-modal visual and textual understanding. In this paper, we harness these multimodal foundation models to enhance the robustness and adaptability of autonomous driving systems, enabling out-of-distribution, end-to-end, multimodal, and more explainable autonomy. Specifically, we present an approach to apply end-to-end open-set (any environment/scene) autonomous driving that is capable of providing driving decisions from representations queryable by image and text. To do so, we introduce a method to extract nuanced spatial (pixel/patch-aligned) features from transformers to enable the encapsulation of both spatial and semantic features. Our approach (i) demonstrates unparalleled results in diverse tests while achieving significantly greater robustness in out-of-distribution situations, and (ii) allows the incorporation of latent space simulation (via text) for improved training (data augmentation via text) and policy debugging. We encourage the reader to check our explainer video at //www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n-DJf8vXxo&feature=youtu.be and to view the code and demos on our project webpage at //drive-anywhere.github.io/.
Face recognition technology has advanced significantly in recent years due largely to the availability of large and increasingly complex training datasets for use in deep learning models. These datasets, however, typically comprise images scraped from news sites or social media platforms and, therefore, have limited utility in more advanced security, forensics, and military applications. These applications require lower resolution, longer ranges, and elevated viewpoints. To meet these critical needs, we collected and curated the first and second subsets of a large multi-modal biometric dataset designed for use in the research and development (R&D) of biometric recognition technologies under extremely challenging conditions. Thus far, the dataset includes more than 350,000 still images and over 1,300 hours of video footage of approximately 1,000 subjects. To collect this data, we used Nikon DSLR cameras, a variety of commercial surveillance cameras, specialized long-rage R&D cameras, and Group 1 and Group 2 UAV platforms. The goal is to support the development of algorithms capable of accurately recognizing people at ranges up to 1,000 m and from high angles of elevation. These advances will include improvements to the state of the art in face recognition and will support new research in the area of whole-body recognition using methods based on gait and anthropometry. This paper describes methods used to collect and curate the dataset, and the dataset's characteristics at the current stage.
Leveraging datasets available to learn a model with high generalization ability to unseen domains is important for computer vision, especially when the unseen domain's annotated data are unavailable. We study a novel and practical problem of Open Domain Generalization (OpenDG), which learns from different source domains to achieve high performance on an unknown target domain, where the distributions and label sets of each individual source domain and the target domain can be different. The problem can be generally applied to diverse source domains and widely applicable to real-world applications. We propose a Domain-Augmented Meta-Learning framework to learn open-domain generalizable representations. We augment domains on both feature-level by a new Dirichlet mixup and label-level by distilled soft-labeling, which complements each domain with missing classes and other domain knowledge. We conduct meta-learning over domains by designing new meta-learning tasks and losses to preserve domain unique knowledge and generalize knowledge across domains simultaneously. Experiment results on various multi-domain datasets demonstrate that the proposed Domain-Augmented Meta-Learning (DAML) outperforms prior methods for unseen domain recognition.
Recently, neural networks have been widely used in e-commerce recommender systems, owing to the rapid development of deep learning. We formalize the recommender system as a sequential recommendation problem, intending to predict the next items that the user might be interacted with. Recent works usually give an overall embedding from a user's behavior sequence. However, a unified user embedding cannot reflect the user's multiple interests during a period. In this paper, we propose a novel controllable multi-interest framework for the sequential recommendation, called ComiRec. Our multi-interest module captures multiple interests from user behavior sequences, which can be exploited for retrieving candidate items from the large-scale item pool. These items are then fed into an aggregation module to obtain the overall recommendation. The aggregation module leverages a controllable factor to balance the recommendation accuracy and diversity. We conduct experiments for the sequential recommendation on two real-world datasets, Amazon and Taobao. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework achieves significant improvements over state-of-the-art models. Our framework has also been successfully deployed on the offline Alibaba distributed cloud platform.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples resulting from adding small-magnitude perturbations to inputs. Such adversarial examples can mislead DNNs to produce adversary-selected results. Different attack strategies have been proposed to generate adversarial examples, but how to produce them with high perceptual quality and more efficiently requires more research efforts. In this paper, we propose AdvGAN to generate adversarial examples with generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can learn and approximate the distribution of original instances. For AdvGAN, once the generator is trained, it can generate adversarial perturbations efficiently for any instance, so as to potentially accelerate adversarial training as defenses. We apply AdvGAN in both semi-whitebox and black-box attack settings. In semi-whitebox attacks, there is no need to access the original target model after the generator is trained, in contrast to traditional white-box attacks. In black-box attacks, we dynamically train a distilled model for the black-box model and optimize the generator accordingly. Adversarial examples generated by AdvGAN on different target models have high attack success rate under state-of-the-art defenses compared to other attacks. Our attack has placed the first with 92.76% accuracy on a public MNIST black-box attack challenge.
Spectral clustering is a leading and popular technique in unsupervised data analysis. Two of its major limitations are scalability and generalization of the spectral embedding (i.e., out-of-sample-extension). In this paper we introduce a deep learning approach to spectral clustering that overcomes the above shortcomings. Our network, which we call SpectralNet, learns a map that embeds input data points into the eigenspace of their associated graph Laplacian matrix and subsequently clusters them. We train SpectralNet using a procedure that involves constrained stochastic optimization. Stochastic optimization allows it to scale to large datasets, while the constraints, which are implemented using a special-purpose output layer, allow us to keep the network output orthogonal. Moreover, the map learned by SpectralNet naturally generalizes the spectral embedding to unseen data points. To further improve the quality of the clustering, we replace the standard pairwise Gaussian affinities with affinities leaned from unlabeled data using a Siamese network. Additional improvement can be achieved by applying the network to code representations produced, e.g., by standard autoencoders. Our end-to-end learning procedure is fully unsupervised. In addition, we apply VC dimension theory to derive a lower bound on the size of SpectralNet. State-of-the-art clustering results are reported on the Reuters dataset. Our implementation is publicly available at //github.com/kstant0725/SpectralNet .
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