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Individualized treatment rules, cornerstones of precision medicine, inform patient treatment decisions with the goal of optimizing patient outcomes. These rules are generally unknown functions of patients' pre-treatment covariates, meaning they must be estimated from clinical or observational study data. Myriad methods have been developed to learn these rules, and these procedures are demonstrably successful in traditional asymptotic settings with moderate number of covariates. The finite-sample performance of these methods in high-dimensional covariate settings, which are increasingly the norm in modern clinical trials, has not been well characterized, however. We perform a comprehensive comparison of state-of-the-art individualized treatment rule estimators, assessing performance on the basis of the estimators' accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficacy. Sixteen data-generating processes with continuous outcomes and binary treatment assignments are considered, reflecting a diversity of randomized and observational studies. We summarize our findings and provide succinct advice to practitioners needing to estimate individualized treatment rules in high dimensions. All code is made publicly available, facilitating modifications and extensions to our simulation study. A novel pre-treatment covariate filtering procedure is also proposed and is shown to improve estimators' accuracy and interpretability.

Safe and reliable state estimation techniques are a critical component of next-generation robotic systems. Agents in such systems must be able to reason about the intentions and trajectories of other agents for safe and efficient motion planning. However, classical state estimation techniques such as Gaussian filters often lack the expressive power to represent complex underlying distributions, especially if the system dynamics are highly nonlinear or if the interaction outcomes are multi-modal. In this work, we use normalizing flows to learn an expressive representation of the belief over an agent's true state. Furthermore, we improve upon existing architectures for normalizing flows by using more expressive deep neural network architectures to parameterize the flow. We evaluate our method on two robotic state estimation tasks and show that our approach outperforms both classical and modern deep learning-based state estimation baselines.

It is well known that the Euler method for approximating the solutions of a random ordinary differential equation $\mathrm{d}X_t/\mathrm{d}t = f(t, X_t, Y_t)$ driven by a stochastic process $\{Y_t\}_t$ with $\theta$-H\"older sample paths is estimated to be of strong order $\theta$ with respect to the time step, provided $f=f(t, x, y)$ is sufficiently regular and with suitable bounds. Here, it is proved that, in many typical cases, further conditions on the noise can be exploited so that the strong convergence is actually of order 1, regardless of the H\"older regularity of the sample paths. This applies for instance to additive or multiplicative It\^o process noises (such as Wiener, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, and geometric Brownian motion processes); to point-process noises (such as Poisson point processes and Hawkes self-exciting processes, which even have jump-type discontinuities); and to transport-type processes with sample paths of bounded variation. The result is based on a novel approach, estimating the global error as an iterated integral over both large and small mesh scales, and switching the order of integration to move the critical regularity to the large scale. The work is complemented with numerical simulations illustrating the strong order 1 convergence in those cases, and with an example with fractional Brownian motion noise with Hurst parameter $0 < H < 1/2$ for which the order of convergence is $H + 1/2$, hence lower than the attained order 1 in the examples above, but still higher than the order $H$ of convergence expected from previous works.

Causal inference in spatial settings is met with unique challenges and opportunities. In spatial settings, a unit's outcome might be affected by the exposure at many locations and the confounders might be spatially structured. Using causal diagrams, we investigate the complications that arise when investigating causal relationships from spatial data. We illustrate that spatial confounding and interference can manifest as each other, meaning that investigating the presence of one can lead to wrongful conclusions in the presence of the other. We also show that statistical dependencies in the exposure can render standard analyses invalid, which can have crucial implications for understanding the effect of interventions on dependent units. Based on the conclusions from this investigation, we propose a parametric approach that simultaneously accounts for interference and mitigates bias from local and neighborhood unmeasured spatial confounding. We show that incorporating an exposure model is necessary from a Bayesian perspective. Therefore, the proposed approach is based on modeling the exposure and the outcome simultaneously while accounting for the presence of common spatially-structured unmeasured predictors. We illustrate our approach with a simulation study and with an analysis of the local and interference effects of sulfur dioxide emissions from power plants on cardiovascular mortality.

In this paper, we first introduce the multilayer random dot product graph (MRDPG) model, which can be seen as an extension of the random dot product graph model to multilayer networks. The MRDPG model is convenient for incorporating nodes' latent positions when understanding connectivity. By modelling a multilayer network as an MRDPG, we further deploy a tensor-based method and demonstrate its superiority over the state-of-the-art methods. We then move from a static to a dynamic MRDPG and are concerned with online change point detection problems. At every time point, we observe a realisation from an $L$-layered MRDPG. Across layers, we assume shared common node sets and latent positions, but allow for different connectivity matrices. In this paper we unfold a comprehensive picture concerning a range of problems. For both fixed and random latent position cases, we propose efficient online change point detection algorithms, minimising the delay in detection while controlling the false alarms. Notably, in the random latent position case, we devise a novel nonparametric change point detection algorithm with a kernel estimator in its core, allowing for the case when the density does not exist, accommodating stochastic block models as special cases. Our theoretical findings are supported by extensive numerical experiments, with the code available online //github.com/MountLee/MRDPG.

Missing data is frequently encountered in many areas of statistics. Imputation and propensity score weighting are two popular methods for handling missing data. These methods employ some model assumptions, either the outcome regression or the response propensity model. However, correct specification of the statistical model can be challenging in the presence of missing data. Doubly robust estimation is attractive as the consistency of the estimator is guaranteed when either the outcome regression model or the propensity score model is correctly specified. In this paper, we first employ information projection to develop an efficient and doubly robust estimator under indirect model calibration constraints. The resulting propensity score estimator can be equivalently expressed as a doubly robust regression imputation estimator by imposing the internal bias calibration condition in estimating the regression parameters. In addition, we generalize the information projection to allow for outlier-robust estimation. Thus, we achieve triply robust estimation by adding the outlier robustness condition to the double robustness condition. Some asymptotic properties are presented. The simulation study confirms that the proposed method allows robust inference against not only the violation of various model assumptions, but also outliers.

State estimation of robotic systems is essential to implementing feedback controllers which usually provide better robustness to modeling uncertainties than open-loop controllers. However, state estimation of soft robots is very challenging because soft robots have theoretically infinite degrees of freedom while existing sensors only provide a limited number of discrete measurements. In this paper, we design an observer for soft continuum robotic arms based on the well-known Cosserat rod theory which models continuum robotic arms by nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). The observer is able to estimate all the continuum (infinite-dimensional) robot states (poses, strains, and velocities) by only sensing the tip velocity of the continuum robot (and hence it is called a ``boundary'' observer). More importantly, the estimation error dynamics is formally proven to be locally input-to-state stable. The key idea is to inject sequential tip velocity measurements into the observer in a way that dissipates the energy of the estimation errors through the boundary. Furthermore, this boundary observer can be implemented by simply changing a boundary condition in any numerical solvers of Cosserat rod models. Extensive numerical studies are included and suggest that the domain of attraction is large and the observer is robust to uncertainties of tip velocity measurements and model parameters.

Unobserved confounding is a fundamental obstacle to establishing valid causal conclusions from observational data. Two complementary types of approaches have been developed to address this obstacle: obtaining identification using fortuitous external aids, such as instrumental variables or proxies, or by means of the ID algorithm, using Markov restrictions on the full data distribution encoded in graphical causal models. In this paper we aim to develop a synthesis of the former and latter approaches to identification in causal inference to yield the most general identification algorithm in multivariate systems currently known -- the proximal ID algorithm. In addition to being able to obtain nonparametric identification in all cases where the ID algorithm succeeds, our approach allows us to systematically exploit proxies to adjust for the presence of unobserved confounders that would have otherwise prevented identification. In addition, we outline a class of estimation strategies for causal parameters identified by our method in an important special case. We illustrate our approach by simulation studies and a data application.

Statisticians show growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneity in causal effects in observational studies. However, there usually exists a trade-off between accuracy and interpretability for developing a desirable estimator for treatment effects, especially in the case when there are a large number of features in estimation. To make efforts to address the issue, we propose a score-based framework for estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) function in this paper. The framework integrates two components: (i) leverage the joint use of propensity and prognostic scores in a matching algorithm to obtain a proxy of the heterogeneous treatment effects for each observation, (ii) utilize non-parametric regression trees to construct an estimator for the CATE function conditioning on the two scores. The method naturally stratifies treatment effects into subgroups over a 2d grid whose axis are the propensity and prognostic scores. We conduct benchmark experiments on multiple simulated data and demonstrate clear advantages of the proposed estimator over state of the art methods. We also evaluate empirical performance in real-life settings, using two observational data from a clinical trial and a complex social survey, and interpret policy implications following the numerical results.

We propose a model to flexibly estimate joint tail properties by exploiting the convergence of an appropriately scaled point cloud onto a compact limit set. Characteristics of the shape of the limit set correspond to key tail dependence properties. We directly model the shape of the limit set using B\'ezier splines, which allow flexible and parsimonious specification of shapes in two dimensions. We then fit the B\'ezier splines to data in pseudo-polar coordinates using Markov chain Monte Carlo, utilizing a limiting approximation to the conditional likelihood of the radii given angles. By imposing appropriate constraints on the parameters of the B\'ezier splines, we guarantee that each posterior sample is a valid limit set boundary, allowing direct posterior analysis of any quantity derived from the shape of the curve. Furthermore, we obtain interpretable inference on the asymptotic dependence class by using mixture priors with point masses on the corner of the unit box. Finally, we apply our model to bivariate datasets of extremes of variables related to fire risk and air pollution.