The Laplace approximation is a popular method for providing posterior mean and variance estimates. But can we trust these estimates for practical use? One might consider using rate-of-convergence bounds for the Bayesian Central Limit Theorem (BCLT) to provide quality guarantees for the Laplace approximation. But the bounds in existing versions of the BCLT either: require knowing the true data-generating parameter, are asymptotic in the number of samples, do not control the Bayesian posterior mean, or apply only to narrow classes of models. Our work provides the first closed-form, finite-sample quality bounds for the Laplace approximation that simultaneously (1) do not require knowing the true parameter, (2) control posterior means and variances, and (3) apply generally to models that satisfy the conditions of the asymptotic BCLT. In fact, our bounds work even in the presence of misspecification. We compute exact constants in our bounds for a variety of standard models, including logistic regression, and numerically demonstrate their utility. We provide a framework for analysis of more complex models.
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Set-disjointness problems are one of the most fundamental problems in communication complexity and have been extensively studied in past decades. Given its importance, many lower bound techniques were introduced to prove communication lower bounds of set-disjointness. Combining ideas from information complexity and query-to-communication lifting theorems, we introduce a density increment argument to prove communication lower bounds for set-disjointness: We give a simple proof showing that a large rectangle cannot be $0$-monochromatic for multi-party unique-disjointness. We interpret the direct-sum argument as a density increment process and give an alternative proof of randomized communication lower bounds for multi-party unique-disjointness. Avoiding full simulations in lifting theorems, we simplify and improve communication lower bounds for sparse unique-disjointness. Potential applications to be unified and improved by our density increment argument are also discussed.
Entanglement is a useful resource for learning, but a precise characterization of its advantage can be challenging. In this work, we consider learning algorithms without entanglement to be those that only utilize separable states, measurements, and operations between the main system of interest and an ancillary system. These algorithms are equivalent to those that apply quantum circuits on the main system interleaved with mid-circuit measurements and classical feedforward. We prove a tight lower bound for learning Pauli channels without entanglement that closes a cubic gap between the best-known upper and lower bound. In particular, we show that $\Theta(2^n\varepsilon^{-2})$ rounds of measurements are required to estimate each eigenvalue of an $n$-qubit Pauli channel to $\varepsilon$ error with high probability when learning without entanglement. In contrast, a learning algorithm with entanglement only needs $\Theta(\varepsilon^{-2})$ rounds of measurements. The tight lower bound strengthens the foundation for an experimental demonstration of entanglement-enhanced advantages for characterizing Pauli noise.
What is the optimal way to approximate a high-dimensional diffusion process by one in which the coordinates are independent? This paper presents a construction, called the \emph{independent projection}, which is optimal for two natural criteria. First, when the original diffusion is reversible with invariant measure $\rho_*$, the independent projection serves as the Wasserstein gradient flow for the relative entropy $H(\cdot\,|\,\rho_*)$ constrained to the space of product measures. This is related to recent Langevin-based sampling schemes proposed in the statistical literature on mean field variational inference. In addition, we provide both qualitative and quantitative results on the long-time convergence of the independent projection, with quantitative results in the log-concave case derived via a new variant of the logarithmic Sobolev inequality. Second, among all processes with independent coordinates, the independent projection is shown to exhibit the slowest growth rate of path-space entropy relative to the original diffusion. This sheds new light on the classical McKean-Vlasov equation and recent variants proposed for non-exchangeable systems, which can be viewed as special cases of the independent projection.
Mediation analysis is widely used for investigating direct and indirect causal pathways through which an effect arises. However, many mediation analysis studies are challenged by missingness in the mediator and outcome. In general, when the mediator and outcome are missing not at random, the direct and indirect effects are not identifiable without further assumptions. In this work, we study the identifiability of the direct and indirect effects under some interpretable mechanisms that allow for missing not at random in the mediator and outcome. We evaluate the performance of statistical inference under those mechanisms through simulation studies and illustrate the proposed methods via the National Job Corps Study.
Natural revision seems so natural: it changes beliefs as little as possible to incorporate new information. Yet, some counterexamples show it wrong. It is so conservative that it never fully believes. It only believes in the current conditions. This is right in some cases and wrong in others. Which is which? The answer requires extending natural revision from simple formulae expressing universal truths (something holds) to conditionals expressing conditional truth (something holds in certain conditions). The extension is based on the basic principles natural revision follows, identified as minimal change, indifference and naivety: change beliefs as little as possible; equate the likeliness of scenarios by default; believe all until contradicted. The extension says that natural revision restricts changes to the current conditions. A comparison with an unrestricting revision shows what exactly the current conditions are. It is not what currently considered true if it contradicts the new information. It includes something more and more unlikely until the new information is at least possible.
The autologistic actor attribute model, or ALAAM, is the social influence counterpart of the better-known exponential-family random graph model (ERGM) for social selection. Extensive experience with ERGMs has shown that the problem of near-degeneracy which often occurs with simple models can be overcome by using "geometrically weighted" or "alternating" statistics. In the much more limited empirical applications of ALAAMs to date, the problem of near-degeneracy, although theoretically expected, appears to have been less of an issue. In this work I present a comprehensive survey of ALAAM applications, showing that this model has to date only been used with relatively small networks, in which near-degeneracy does not appear to be a problem. I show near-degeneracy does occur in simple ALAAM models of larger empirical networks, define some geometrically weighted ALAAM statistics analogous to those for ERGM, and demonstrate that models with these statistics do not suffer from near-degeneracy and hence can be estimated where they could not be with the simple statistics.
In this manuscript we study properties of multidimensional shifts. More precisely, we study the necessary and sufficient conditions for a shift to be sofic, i.e. the boundary between sofic shifts and effective ones. To this end, we use different versions of algorithmic complexity (a.k.a. Kolmogorov complexity). In the first part of the work we suggest new necessary conditions of soficness for multidimensional shift. These conditions are expressed in terms of Kolmogorov complexity with bounded ressources. We discuss several applications of this technique. In particular, we construct an example of a two-dimensional effective and non sofic shift that has a very low combinatorial complexity : the number of global admissible N x N patterns grows only polynomially in N. We also show that the technique developed by S.Kass and K.Madden is equivalent to a special case of our method. In the second part, we discuss properties of subshifts defined in terms of density of letters. More specifically, we study two-dimensional subshifts $S(\rho)$ in the binary alphabet (white and black cells) where a configuration is admissible if every pattern of size N x N contains at most $N^\rho$ black cells. We show that $S(^\rho)$ is sofic for every $\rho<1$. Moreover, all effectif subshifts of these shifts are also sofic. The proof of this result is principally based on the construction of a self-simulating point-fixed tile set, with several new ingredients: an ad hoc model of computation based on a non deterministic cellular automaton (which allows to implement efficiently massively parallel calculations) and some properties of flows in a specific type of planar graphs.
We consider a one-dimensional singularly perturbed 4th order problem with the additional feature of a shift term. An expansion into a smooth term, boundary layers and an inner layer yields a formal solution decomposition, and together with a stability result we have estimates for the subsequent numerical analysis. With classical layer adapted meshes we present a numerical method, that achieves supercloseness and optimal convergence orders in the associated energy norm. We also consider coarser meshes in view of the weak layers. Some numerical examples conclude the paper and support the theory.
For languages with no annotated resources, transferring knowledge from rich-resource languages is an effective solution for named entity recognition (NER). While all existing methods directly transfer from source-learned model to a target language, in this paper, we propose to fine-tune the learned model with a few similar examples given a test case, which could benefit the prediction by leveraging the structural and semantic information conveyed in such similar examples. To this end, we present a meta-learning algorithm to find a good model parameter initialization that could fast adapt to the given test case and propose to construct multiple pseudo-NER tasks for meta-training by computing sentence similarities. To further improve the model's generalization ability across different languages, we introduce a masking scheme and augment the loss function with an additional maximum term during meta-training. We conduct extensive experiments on cross-lingual named entity recognition with minimal resources over five target languages. The results show that our approach significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods across the board.
Recent advances in 3D fully convolutional networks (FCN) have made it feasible to produce dense voxel-wise predictions of volumetric images. In this work, we show that a multi-class 3D FCN trained on manually labeled CT scans of several anatomical structures (ranging from the large organs to thin vessels) can achieve competitive segmentation results, while avoiding the need for handcrafting features or training class-specific models. To this end, we propose a two-stage, coarse-to-fine approach that will first use a 3D FCN to roughly define a candidate region, which will then be used as input to a second 3D FCN. This reduces the number of voxels the second FCN has to classify to ~10% and allows it to focus on more detailed segmentation of the organs and vessels. We utilize training and validation sets consisting of 331 clinical CT images and test our models on a completely unseen data collection acquired at a different hospital that includes 150 CT scans, targeting three anatomical organs (liver, spleen, and pancreas). In challenging organs such as the pancreas, our cascaded approach improves the mean Dice score from 68.5 to 82.2%, achieving the highest reported average score on this dataset. We compare with a 2D FCN method on a separate dataset of 240 CT scans with 18 classes and achieve a significantly higher performance in small organs and vessels. Furthermore, we explore fine-tuning our models to different datasets. Our experiments illustrate the promise and robustness of current 3D FCN based semantic segmentation of medical images, achieving state-of-the-art results. Our code and trained models are available for download: //github.com/holgerroth/3Dunet_abdomen_cascade.
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