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Gaussian processes are among the most useful tools in modeling continuous processes in machine learning and statistics. If the value of a process is known at a finite collection of points, one may use Gaussian processes to construct a surface which interpolates these values to be used for prediction and uncertainty quantification in other locations. However, it is not always the case that the available information is in the form of a finite collection of points. For example, boundary value problems contain information on the boundary of a domain, which is an uncountable collection of points that cannot be incorporated into typical Gaussian process techniques. In this paper we construct a Gaussian process model which utilizes reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces to unify the typical finite case with the case of having uncountable information by exploiting the equivalence of conditional expectation and orthogonal projections. We discuss this construction in statistical models, including numerical considerations and a proof of concept.

We introduce a similarity function on formulae of signal temporal logic (STL). It comes in the form of a kernel function, well known in machine learning as a conceptually and computationally efficient tool. The corresponding kernel trick allows us to circumvent the complicated process of feature extraction, i.e. the (typically manual) effort to identify the decisive properties of formulae so that learning can be applied. We demonstrate this consequence and its advantages on the task of predicting (quantitative) satisfaction of STL formulae on stochastic processes: Using our kernel and the kernel trick, we learn (i) computationally efficiently (ii) a practically precise predictor of satisfaction, (iii) avoiding the difficult task of finding a way to explicitly turn formulae into vectors of numbers in a sensible way. We back the high precision we have achieved in the experiments by a theoretically sound PAC guarantee, ensuring our procedure efficiently delivers a close-to-optimal predictor.

We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a homogeneously mixing community. The model is based on an infectivity process, which we define through stochastic contact and infectiousness processes, so that each individual has an independent infectivity profile. In particular, we monitor variations of the reproduction number and of the distribution of generation times. We show that some interventions, i.e. uniform reduction and vaccination, affect the former while leaving the latter unchanged, whereas other interventions, i.e. isolation, screening and contact tracing, affect both quantities. We provide a theoretical analysis of the variation of these quantities, and we show that, in practice, the variation of the generation time distribution can be significant and that it can cause biases in the estimation of basic reproduction numbers. The framework, because of its general nature, captures the properties of many infectious diseases, but particular emphasis is on COVID-19, for which numerical results are provided.

We consider a time-varying first-order autoregressive model with irregular innovations, where we assume that the coefficient function is H\"{o}lder continuous. To estimate this function, we use a quasi-maximum likelihood based approach. A precise control of this method demands a delicate analysis of extremes of certain weakly dependent processes, our main result being a concentration inequality for such quantities. Based on our analysis, upper and matching minimax lower bounds are derived, showing the optimality of our estimators. Unlike the regular case, the information theoretic complexity depends both on the smoothness and an additional shape parameter, characterizing the irregularity of the underlying distribution. The results and ideas for the proofs are very different from classical and more recent methods in connection with statistics and inference for locally stationary processes.

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a notion of causality in Markov decision processes based on the probability-raising principle and to analyze its algorithmic properties. The latter includes algorithms for checking cause-effect relationships and the existence of probability-raising causes for given effect scenarios. Inspired by concepts of statistical analysis, we study quality measures (recall, coverage ratio and f-score) for causes and develop algorithms for their computation. Finally, the computational complexity for finding optimal causes with respect to these measures is analyzed.

Continuous determinantal point processes (DPPs) are a class of repulsive point processes on $\mathbb{R}^d$ with many statistical applications. Although an explicit expression of their density is known, it is too complicated to be used directly for maximum likelihood estimation. In the stationary case, an approximation using Fourier series has been suggested, but it is limited to rectangular observation windows and no theoretical results support it. In this contribution, we investigate a different way to approximate the likelihood by looking at its asymptotic behaviour when the observation window grows towards $\mathbb{R}^d$. This new approximation is not limited to rectangular windows, is faster to compute than the previous one, does not require any tuning parameter, and some theoretical justifications are provided. It moreover provides an explicit formula for estimating the asymptotic variance of the associated estimator. The performances are assessed in a simulation study on standard parametric models on $\mathbb{R}^d$ and compare favourably to common alternative estimation methods for continuous DPPs.

A determinantal point process (DPP) on a collection of $M$ items is a model, parameterized by a symmetric kernel matrix, that assigns a probability to every subset of those items. Recent work shows that removing the kernel symmetry constraint, yielding nonsymmetric DPPs (NDPPs), can lead to significant predictive performance gains for machine learning applications. However, existing work leaves open the question of scalable NDPP sampling. There is only one known DPP sampling algorithm, based on Cholesky decomposition, that can directly apply to NDPPs as well. Unfortunately, its runtime is cubic in $M$, and thus does not scale to large item collections. In this work, we first note that this algorithm can be transformed into a linear-time one for kernels with low-rank structure. Furthermore, we develop a scalable sublinear-time rejection sampling algorithm by constructing a novel proposal distribution. Additionally, we show that imposing certain structural constraints on the NDPP kernel enables us to bound the rejection rate in a way that depends only on the kernel rank. In our experiments we compare the speed of all of these samplers for a variety of real-world tasks.

Reward is the driving force for reinforcement-learning agents. This paper is dedicated to understanding the expressivity of reward as a way to capture tasks that we would want an agent to perform. We frame this study around three new abstract notions of "task" that might be desirable: (1) a set of acceptable behaviors, (2) a partial ordering over behaviors, or (3) a partial ordering over trajectories. Our main results prove that while reward can express many of these tasks, there exist instances of each task type that no Markov reward function can capture. We then provide a set of polynomial-time algorithms that construct a Markov reward function that allows an agent to optimize tasks of each of these three types, and correctly determine when no such reward function exists. We conclude with an empirical study that corroborates and illustrates our theoretical findings.

We show that the output of a (residual) convolutional neural network (CNN) with an appropriate prior over the weights and biases is a Gaussian process (GP) in the limit of infinitely many convolutional filters, extending similar results for dense networks. For a CNN, the equivalent kernel can be computed exactly and, unlike "deep kernels", has very few parameters: only the hyperparameters of the original CNN. Further, we show that this kernel has two properties that allow it to be computed efficiently; the cost of evaluating the kernel for a pair of images is similar to a single forward pass through the original CNN with only one filter per layer. The kernel equivalent to a 32-layer ResNet obtains 0.84% classification error on MNIST, a new record for GPs with a comparable number of parameters.

With the emergence of Web 2.0, tag recommenders have become important tools, which aim to support users in finding descriptive tags for their bookmarked resources. Although current algorithms provide good results in terms of tag prediction accuracy, they are often designed in a data-driven way and thus, lack a thorough understanding of the cognitive processes that play a role when people assign tags to resources. This thesis aims at modeling these cognitive dynamics in social tagging in order to improve tag recommendations and to better understand the underlying processes. As a first attempt in this direction, we have implemented an interplay between individual micro-level (e.g., categorizing resources or temporal dynamics) and collective macro-level (e.g., imitating other users' tags) processes in the form of a novel tag recommender algorithm. The preliminary results for datasets gathered from BibSonomy, CiteULike and Delicious show that our proposed approach can outperform current state-of-the-art algorithms, such as Collaborative Filtering, FolkRank or Pairwise Interaction Tensor Factorization. We conclude that recommender systems can be improved by incorporating related principles of human cognition.