We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a homogeneously mixing community. The model is based on an infectivity process, which we define through stochastic contact and infectiousness processes, so that each individual has an independent infectivity profile. In particular, we monitor variations of the reproduction number and of the distribution of generation times. We show that some interventions, i.e. uniform reduction and vaccination, affect the former while leaving the latter unchanged, whereas other interventions, i.e. isolation, screening and contact tracing, affect both quantities. We provide a theoretical analysis of the variation of these quantities, and we show that, in practice, the variation of the generation time distribution can be significant and that it can cause biases in the estimation of basic reproduction numbers. The framework, because of its general nature, captures the properties of many infectious diseases, but particular emphasis is on COVID-19, for which numerical results are provided.
Human action recognition and analysis have great demand and important application significance in video surveillance, video retrieval, and human-computer interaction. The task of human action quality evaluation requires the intelligent system to automatically and objectively evaluate the action completed by the human. The action quality assessment model can reduce the human and material resources spent in action evaluation and reduce subjectivity. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey of existing papers on video-based action quality assessment. Different from human action recognition, the application scenario of action quality assessment is relatively narrow. Most of the existing work focuses on sports and medical care. We first introduce the definition and challenges of human action quality assessment. Then we present the existing datasets and evaluation metrics. In addition, we summarized the methods of sports and medical care according to the model categories and publishing institutions according to the characteristics of the two fields. At the end, combined with recent work, the promising development direction in action quality assessment is discussed.
Current practices in metric evaluation focus on one single dataset, e.g., Newstest dataset in each year's WMT Metrics Shared Task. However, in this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively show that the performances of metrics are sensitive to data. The ranking of metrics varies when the evaluation is conducted on different datasets. Then this paper further investigates two potential hypotheses, i.e., insignificant data points and the deviation of Independent and Identically Distributed (i.i.d) assumption, which may take responsibility for the issue of data variance. In conclusion, our findings suggest that when evaluating automatic translation metrics, researchers should take data variance into account and be cautious to claim the result on a single dataset, because it may leads to inconsistent results with most of other datasets.
Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and severity dynamics. This paper explores important challenges to the use of state-space models for epidemic inference when multiple dependent datasets are analysed. We propose a new semi-stochastic model that exploits deterministic approximations for large-scale transmission dynamics while retaining stochasticity in the occurrence and reporting of relatively rare severe events. This model is suitable for many real-time situations including large seasonal epidemics and pandemics. Within this context, we develop algorithms to provide exact parameter inference and test them via simulation. Finally, we apply our joint model and the proposed algorithm to several surveillance data on the 2017-18 influenza epidemic in England to reconstruct transmission dynamics and estimate the daily new influenza infections as well as severity indicators as the case-hospitalisation risk and the hospital-intensive care risk.
Data collection and research methodology represents a critical part of the research pipeline. On the one hand, it is important that we collect data in a way that maximises the validity of what we are measuring, which may involve the use of long scales with many items. On the other hand, collecting a large number of items across multiple scales results in participant fatigue, and expensive and time consuming data collection. It is therefore important that we use the available resources optimally. In this work, we consider how a consideration for theory and the associated causal/structural model can help us to streamline data collection procedures by not wasting time collecting data for variables which are not causally critical for subsequent analysis. This not only saves time and enables us to redirect resources to attend to other variables which are more important, but also increases research transparency and the reliability of theory testing. In order to achieve this streamlined data collection, we leverage structural models, and Markov conditional independency structures implicit in these models to identify the substructures which are critical for answering a particular research question. In this work, we review the relevant concepts and present a number of didactic examples with the hope that psychologists can use these techniques to streamline their data collection process without invalidating the subsequent analysis. We provide a number of simulation results to demonstrate the limited analytical impact of this streamlining.
We present a data-efficient framework for solving sequential decision-making problems which exploits the combination of reinforcement learning (RL) and latent variable generative models. The framework, called GenRL, trains deep policies by introducing an action latent variable such that the feed-forward policy search can be divided into two parts: (i) training a sub-policy that outputs a distribution over the action latent variable given a state of the system, and (ii) unsupervised training of a generative model that outputs a sequence of motor actions conditioned on the latent action variable. GenRL enables safe exploration and alleviates the data-inefficiency problem as it exploits prior knowledge about valid sequences of motor actions. Moreover, we provide a set of measures for evaluation of generative models such that we are able to predict the performance of the RL policy training prior to the actual training on a physical robot. We experimentally determine the characteristics of generative models that have most influence on the performance of the final policy training on two robotics tasks: shooting a hockey puck and throwing a basketball. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that GenRL is the only method which can safely and efficiently solve the robotics tasks compared to two state-of-the-art RL methods.
Linear mixed models (LMMs) are instrumental for regression analysis with structured dependence, such as grouped, clustered, or multilevel data. However, selection among the covariates--while accounting for this structured dependence--remains a challenge. We introduce a Bayesian decision analysis for subset selection with LMMs. Using a Mahalanobis loss function that incorporates the structured dependence, we derive optimal linear coefficients for (i) any given subset of variables and (ii) all subsets of variables that satisfy a cardinality constraint. Crucially, these estimates inherit shrinkage or regularization and uncertainty quantification from the underlying Bayesian model, and apply for any well-specified Bayesian LMM. More broadly, our decision analysis strategy deemphasizes the role of a single "best" subset, which is often unstable and limited in its information content, and instead favors a collection of near-optimal subsets. This collection is summarized by key member subsets and variable-specific importance metrics. Customized subset search and out-of-sample approximation algorithms are provided for more scalable computing. These tools are applied to simulated data and a longitudinal physical activity dataset, and demonstrate excellent prediction, estimation, and selection ability.
Dense video captioning aims to identify the events of interest in an input video, and generate descriptive captions for each event. Previous approaches usually follow a two-stage generative process, which first proposes a segment for each event, then renders a caption for each identified segment. Recent advances in large-scale sequence generation pretraining have seen great success in unifying task formulation for a great variety of tasks, but so far, more complex tasks such as dense video captioning are not able to fully utilize this powerful paradigm. In this work, we show how to model the two subtasks of dense video captioning jointly as one sequence generation task, and simultaneously predict the events and the corresponding descriptions. Experiments on YouCook2 and ViTT show encouraging results and indicate the feasibility of training complex tasks such as end-to-end dense video captioning integrated into large-scale pre-trained models.
5G applications have become increasingly popular in recent years as the spread of fifth-generation (5G) network deployment has grown. For vehicular networks, mmWave band signals have been well studied and used for communication and sensing. In this work, we propose a new dynamic ray tracing algorithm that exploits spatial and temporal coherence. We evaluate the performance by comparing the results on typical vehicular communication scenarios with GEMV^2, which uses a combination of deterministic and stochastic models, and WinProp, which utilizes the deterministic model for simulations with given environment information. We also compare the performance of our algorithm on complex, urban models and observe a reduction in computation time by 36% compared to GEMV^2 and by 30% compared to WinProp, while maintaining similar prediction accuracy.
We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting directions. Then we give a new information-theoretic proof of a finite version of de Finetti's classical representation theorem for finite-valued random variables. We derive an upper bound on the relative entropy between the distribution of the first $k$ in a sequence of $n$ exchangeable random variables, and an appropriate mixture over product distributions. The mixing measure is characterised as the law of the empirical measure of the original sequence, and de Finetti's result is recovered as a corollary. The proof is nicely motivated by the Gibbs conditioning principle in connection with statistical mechanics, and it follows along an appealing sequence of steps. The technical estimates required for these steps are obtained via the use of a collection of combinatorial tools known within information theory as `the method of types.'
Recommender systems, a pivotal tool to alleviate the information overload problem, aim to predict user's preferred items from millions of candidates by analyzing observed user-item relations. As for tackling the sparsity and cold start problems encountered by recommender systems, uncovering hidden (indirect) user-item relations by employing side information and knowledge to enrich observed information for the recommendation has been proven promising recently; and its performance is largely determined by the scalability of recommendation models in the face of the high complexity and large scale of side information and knowledge. Making great strides towards efficiently utilizing complex and large-scale data, research into graph embedding techniques is a major topic. Equipping recommender systems with graph embedding techniques contributes to outperforming the conventional recommendation implementing directly based on graph topology analysis and has been widely studied these years. This article systematically retrospects graph embedding-based recommendation from embedding techniques for bipartite graphs, general graphs, and knowledge graphs, and proposes a general design pipeline of that. In addition, comparing several representative graph embedding-based recommendation models with the most common-used conventional recommendation models, on simulations, manifests that the conventional models overall outperform the graph embedding-based ones in predicting implicit user-item interactions, revealing the relative weakness of graph embedding-based recommendation in these tasks. To foster future research, this article proposes constructive suggestions on making a trade-off between graph embedding-based recommendation and the conventional recommendation in different tasks as well as some open questions.