Simulation of the crack network evolution on high strain rate impact experiments performed in brittle materials is very compute-intensive. The cost increases even more if multiple simulations are needed to account for the randomness in crack length, location, and orientation, which is inherently found in real-world materials. Constructing a machine learning emulator can make the process faster by orders of magnitude. There has been little work, however, on assessing the error associated with their predictions. Estimating these errors is imperative for meaningful overall uncertainty quantification. In this work, we extend the heteroscedastic uncertainty estimates to bound a multiple output machine learning emulator. We find that the response prediction is accurate within its predicted errors, but with a somewhat conservative estimate of uncertainty.
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We consider the non-preemptive scheduling problem on identical machines where there is a parameter B and each machine in every unit length time interval can process up to B different jobs. The goal function we consider is the makespan minimization and we develop an EPTAS for this problem. Prior to our work a PTAS was known only for the case of one machine and constant values of B, and even the case of non-constant values of B on one machine was not known to admit a PTAS.
This paper considers the basic problem of scheduling jobs online with preemption to maximize the number of jobs completed by their deadline on $m$ identical machines. The main result is an $O(1)$ competitive deterministic algorithm for any number of machines $m >1$.
We consider the energy complexity of the leader election problem in the single-hop radio network model, where each device has a unique identifier in $\{1, 2, \ldots, N\}$. Energy is a scarce resource for small battery-powered devices. For such devices, most of the energy is often spent on communication, not on computation. To approximate the actual energy cost, the energy complexity of an algorithm is defined as the maximum over all devices of the number of time slots where the device transmits or listens. Much progress has been made in understanding the energy complexity of leader election in radio networks, but very little is known about the trade-off between time and energy. $\textbf{Time-energy trade-off:}$ For any $k \geq \log \log N$, we show that a leader among at most $n$ devices can be elected deterministically in $O(k \cdot n^{1+\epsilon}) + O(k \cdot N^{1/k})$ time and $O(k)$ energy if each device can simultaneously transmit and listen, where $\epsilon > 0$ is any small constant. This improves upon the previous $O(N)$-time $O(\log \log N)$-energy algorithm by Chang et al. [STOC 2017]. We provide lower bounds to show that the time-energy trade-off of our algorithm is near-optimal. $\textbf{Dense instances:}$ For the dense instances where the number of devices is $n = \Theta(N)$, we design a deterministic leader election algorithm using only $O(1)$ energy. This improves upon the $O(\log^* N)$-energy algorithm by Jurdzi\'{n}ski et al. [PODC 2002] and the $O(\alpha(N))$-energy algorithm by Chang et al. [STOC 2017]. More specifically, we show that the optimal deterministic energy complexity of leader election is $\Theta\left(\max\left\{1, \log \frac{N}{n}\right\}\right)$ if the devices cannot simultaneously transmit and listen, and it is $\Theta\left(\max\left\{1, \log \log \frac{N}{n}\right\}\right)$ if they can.
This work focuses on the space-time reduced-order modeling (ROM) method for solving large-scale uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems with multiple random coefficients. In contrast with the traditional space ROM approach, which performs dimension reduction in the spatial dimension, the space-time ROM approach performs dimension reduction on both the spatial and temporal domains, and thus enables accurate approximate solutions at a low cost. We incorporate the space-time ROM strategy with various classical stochastic UQ propagation methods such as stochastic Galerkin and Monte Carlo. Numerical results demonstrate that our methodology has significant computational advantages compared to state-of-the-art ROM approaches. By testing the approximation errors, we show that there is no obvious loss of simulation accuracy for space-time ROM given its high computational efficiency.
Many forecasts consist not of point predictions but concern the evolution of quantities. For example, a central bank might predict the interest rates during the next quarter, an epidemiologist might predict trajectories of infection rates, a clinician might predict the behaviour of medical markers over the next day, etc. The situation is further complicated since these forecasts sometimes only concern the approximate "shape of the future evolution" or "order of events". Formally, such forecasts can be seen as probability measures on spaces of equivalence classes of paths modulo time-parametrization. We leverage the statistical framework of proper scoring rules with classical mathematical results to derive a principled approach to decision making with such forecasts. In particular, we introduce notions of gradients, entropy, and divergence that are tailor-made to respect the underlying non-Euclidean structure.
We derive information-theoretic generalization bounds for supervised learning algorithms based on the information contained in predictions rather than in the output of the training algorithm. These bounds improve over the existing information-theoretic bounds, are applicable to a wider range of algorithms, and solve two key challenges: (a) they give meaningful results for deterministic algorithms and (b) they are significantly easier to estimate. We show experimentally that the proposed bounds closely follow the generalization gap in practical scenarios for deep learning.
The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.
The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.
Machine learning methods are powerful in distinguishing different phases of matter in an automated way and provide a new perspective on the study of physical phenomena. We train a Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) on data constructed with spin configurations sampled from the Ising Hamiltonian at different values of temperature and external magnetic field using Monte Carlo methods. From the trained machine we obtain the flow of iterative reconstruction of spin state configurations to faithfully reproduce the observables of the physical system. We find that the flow of the trained RBM approaches the spin configurations of the maximal possible specific heat which resemble the near criticality region of the Ising model. In the special case of the vanishing magnetic field the trained RBM converges to the critical point of the Renormalization Group (RG) flow of the lattice model. Our results suggest an alternative explanation of how the machine identifies the physical phase transitions, by recognizing certain properties of the configuration like the maximization of the specific heat, instead of associating directly the recognition procedure with the RG flow and its fixed points. Then from the reconstructed data we deduce the critical exponent associated to the magnetization to find satisfactory agreement with the actual physical value. We assume no prior knowledge about the criticality of the system and its Hamiltonian.
Data augmentation has been widely used for training deep learning systems for medical image segmentation and plays an important role in obtaining robust and transformation-invariant predictions. However, it has seldom been used at test time for segmentation and not been formulated in a consistent mathematical framework. In this paper, we first propose a theoretical formulation of test-time augmentation for deep learning in image recognition, where the prediction is obtained through estimating its expectation by Monte Carlo simulation with prior distributions of parameters in an image acquisition model that involves image transformations and noise. We then propose a novel uncertainty estimation method based on the formulated test-time augmentation. Experiments with segmentation of fetal brains and brain tumors from 2D and 3D Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) showed that 1) our test-time augmentation outperforms a single-prediction baseline and dropout-based multiple predictions, and 2) it provides a better uncertainty estimation than calculating the model-based uncertainty alone and helps to reduce overconfident incorrect predictions.
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