Researchers using instrumental variables to investigate the effects of ordered treatments (e.g., years of education, months of healthcare coverage) often recode treatment into a binary indicator for any exposure (e.g., any college, any healthcare coverage). The resulting estimand is difficult to interpret unless the instruments only shift compliers from no treatment to some positive quantity and not from some treatment to more -- i.e., there are extensive margin compliers only (EMCO). When EMCO holds, recoded endogenous variables capture a weighted average of treatment effects across complier groups that can be partially unbundled into each group's treated and untreated means. Invoking EMCO along with the standard Local Average Treatment Effect assumptions is equivalent to assuming choices are determined by a simple two-factor selection model in which agents first decide whether to participate in treatment at all and then decide how much. The instruments must only impact relative utility in the first step. Although EMCO constrains unobserved counterfactual choices, it places testable restrictions on the joint distribution of outcomes, treatments, and instruments.
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We consider the problem of finding a compromise between the opinions of a group of individuals on a number of mutually independent, binary topics. In this paper, we quantify the loss in representativeness that results from requiring the outcome to have majority support, in other words, the "price of majority support". Each individual is assumed to support an outcome if they agree with the outcome on at least as many topics as they disagree on. Our results can also be seen as quantifying Anscombes paradox which states that topic-wise majority outcome may not be supported by a majority. To measure the representativeness of an outcome, we consider two metrics. First, we look for an outcome that agrees with a majority on as many topics as possible. We prove that the maximum number such that there is guaranteed to exist an outcome that agrees with a majority on this number of topics and has majority support, equals $\ceil{(t+1)/2}$ where $t$ is the total number of topics. Second, we count the number of times a voter opinion on a topic matches the outcome on that topic. The goal is to find the outcome with majority support with the largest number of matches. We consider the ratio between this number and the number of matches of the overall best outcome which may not have majority support. We try to find the maximum ratio such that an outcome with majority support and this ratio of matches compared to the overall best is guaranteed to exist. For 3 topics, we show this ratio to be $5/6\approx 0.83$. In general, we prove an upper bound that comes arbitrarily close to $2\sqrt{6}-4\approx 0.90$ as $t$ tends to infinity. Furthermore, we numerically compute a better upper and a non-matching lower bound in the relevant range for $t$.
Isogeometric Analysis generalizes classical finite element analysis and intends to integrate it with the field of Computer-Aided Design. A central problem in achieving this objective is the reconstruction of analysis-suitable models from Computer-Aided Design models, which is in general a non-trivial and time-consuming task. In this article, we present a novel spline construction, that enables model reconstruction as well as simulation of high-order PDEs on the reconstructed models. The proposed almost-$C^1$ are biquadratic splines on fully unstructured quadrilateral meshes (without restrictions on placements or number of extraordinary vertices). They are $C^1$ smooth almost everywhere, that is, at all vertices and across most edges, and in addition almost (i.e. approximately) $C^1$ smooth across all other edges. Thus, the splines form $H^2$-nonconforming analysis-suitable discretization spaces. This is the lowest-degree unstructured spline construction that can be used to solve fourth-order problems. The associated spline basis is non-singular and has several B-spline-like properties (e.g., partition of unity, non-negativity, local support), the almost-$C^1$ splines are described in an explicit B\'ezier-extraction-based framework that can be easily implemented. Numerical tests suggest that the basis is well-conditioned and exhibits optimal approximation behavior.
Heterogeneous treatment effect models allow us to compare treatments at subgroup and individual levels, and are of increasing popularity in applications like personalized medicine, advertising, and education. In this talk, we first survey different causal estimands used in practice, which focus on estimating the difference in conditional means. We then propose DINA, the difference in natural parameters, to quantify heterogeneous treatment effect in exponential families and the Cox model. For binary outcomes and survival times, DINA is both convenient and more practical for modeling the influence of covariates on the treatment effect. Second, we introduce a meta-algorithm for DINA, which allows practitioners to use powerful off-the-shelf machine learning tools for the estimation of nuisance functions, and which is also statistically robust to errors in inaccurate nuisance function estimation. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method combined with various machine learning base-learners on simulated and real datasets.
Iterative distributed optimization algorithms involve multiple agents that communicate with each other, over time, in order to minimize/maximize a global objective. In the presence of unreliable communication networks, the Age-of-Information (AoI), which measures the freshness of data received, may be large and hence hinder algorithmic convergence. In this paper, we study the convergence of general distributed gradient-based optimization algorithms in the presence of communication that neither happens periodically nor at stochastically independent points in time. We show that convergence is guaranteed provided the random variables associated with the AoI processes are stochastically dominated by a random variable with finite first moment. This improves on previous requirements of boundedness of more than the first moment. We then introduce stochastically strongly connected (SSC) networks, a new stochastic form of strong connectedness for time-varying networks. We show: If for any $p \ge0$ the processes that describe the success of communication between agents in a SSC network are $\alpha$-mixing with $n^{p-1}\alpha(n)$ summable, then the associated AoI processes are stochastically dominated by a random variable with finite $p$-th moment. In combination with our first contribution, this implies that distributed stochastic gradient descend converges in the presence of AoI, if $\alpha(n)$ is summable.
Subclassification and matching are often used in empirical studies to adjust for observed covariates; however, they are largely restricted to relatively simple study designs with a binary treatment and less developed for designs with a continuous exposure. Matching with exposure doses is particularly useful in instrumental variable designs and in understanding the dose-response relationships. In this article, we propose two criteria for optimal subclassification based on subclass homogeneity in the context of having a continuous exposure dose, and propose an efficient polynomial-time algorithm that is guaranteed to find an optimal subclassification with respect to one criterion and serves as a 2-approximation algorithm for the other criterion. We discuss how to incorporate dose and use appropriate penalties to control the number of subclasses in the design. Via extensive simulations, we systematically compare our proposed design to optimal non-bipartite pair matching, and demonstrate that combining our proposed subclassification scheme with regression adjustment helps reduce model dependence for parametric causal inference with a continuous dose. We apply the new design and associated randomization-based inferential procedure to study the effect of transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) monitoring during coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery on patients' post-surgery clinical outcomes using Medicare and Medicaid claims data, and find evidence that TEE monitoring lowers patients' all-cause $30$-day mortality rate.
This paper considers identification and estimation of the causal effect of the time Z until a subject is treated on a survival outcome T. The treatment is not randomly assigned, T is randomly right censored by a random variable C and the time to treatment Z is right censored by min(T,C) The endogeneity issue is treated using an instrumental variable explaining Z and independent of the error term of the model. We study identification in a fully nonparametric framework. We show that our specification generates an integral equation, of which the regression function of interest is a solution. We provide identification conditions that rely on this identification equation. For estimation purposes, we assume that the regression function follows a parametric model. We propose an estimation procedure and give conditions under which the estimator is asymptotically normal. The estimators exhibit good finite sample properties in simulations. Our methodology is applied to find evidence supporting the efficacy of a therapy for burn-out.
Our motivation stems from current medical research aiming at personalized treatment using a molecular-based approach. The broad goal is to develop a more precise and targeted decision making process, relative to traditional treatments based primarily on clinical diagnoses. Specifically, we consider patients affected by Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML), an hematological cancer characterized by uncontrolled proliferation of hematopoietic stem cells in the bone marrow. Because AML responds poorly to chemoterapeutic treatments, the development of targeted therapies is essential to improve patients' prospects. In particular, the dataset we analyze contains the levels of proteins involved in cell cycle regulation and linked to the progression of the disease. We analyse treatment effects within a causal framework represented by a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) model, whose vertices are the protein levels in the network. A major obstacle in implementing the above program is however represented by individual heterogeneity. We address this issue through a Dirichlet Process (DP) mixture of Gaussian DAG-models where both the graphical structure as well as the allied model parameters are regarded as uncertain. Our procedure determines a clustering structure of the units reflecting the underlying heterogeneity, and produces subject-specific estimates of causal effects based on Bayesian model averaging. With reference to the AML dataset, we identify different effects of protein regulation among individuals; moreover, our method clusters patients into groups that exhibit only mild similarities with traditional categories based on morphological features.
Named entity recognition (NER) is a well-studied task in natural language processing. Traditional NER research only deals with flat entities and ignores nested entities. The span-based methods treat entity recognition as a span classification task. Although these methods have the innate ability to handle nested NER, they suffer from high computational cost, ignorance of boundary information, under-utilization of the spans that partially match with entities, and difficulties in long entity recognition. To tackle these issues, we propose a two-stage entity identifier. First we generate span proposals by filtering and boundary regression on the seed spans to locate the entities, and then label the boundary-adjusted span proposals with the corresponding categories. Our method effectively utilizes the boundary information of entities and partially matched spans during training. Through boundary regression, entities of any length can be covered theoretically, which improves the ability to recognize long entities. In addition, many low-quality seed spans are filtered out in the first stage, which reduces the time complexity of inference. Experiments on nested NER datasets demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous state-of-the-art models.
The aim of this paper is to offer the first systematic exploration and definition of equivalent causal models in the context where both models are not made up of the same variables. The idea is that two models are equivalent when they agree on all "essential" causal information that can be expressed using their common variables. I do so by focussing on the two main features of causal models, namely their structural relations and their functional relations. In particular, I define several relations of causal ancestry and several relations of causal sufficiency, and require that the most general of these relations are preserved across equivalent models.
Although measuring held-out accuracy has been the primary approach to evaluate generalization, it often overestimates the performance of NLP models, while alternative approaches for evaluating models either focus on individual tasks or on specific behaviors. Inspired by principles of behavioral testing in software engineering, we introduce CheckList, a task-agnostic methodology for testing NLP models. CheckList includes a matrix of general linguistic capabilities and test types that facilitate comprehensive test ideation, as well as a software tool to generate a large and diverse number of test cases quickly. We illustrate the utility of CheckList with tests for three tasks, identifying critical failures in both commercial and state-of-art models. In a user study, a team responsible for a commercial sentiment analysis model found new and actionable bugs in an extensively tested model. In another user study, NLP practitioners with CheckList created twice as many tests, and found almost three times as many bugs as users without it.
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