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In a sports competition, a team might lose a powerful incentive to exert full effort if its final rank does not depend on the outcome of the matches still to be played. Therefore, the organiser should reduce the probability of such a situation to the extent possible. Our paper provides a classification scheme to identify these weakly (where one team is indifferent) or strongly (where both teams are indifferent) stakeless games. A statistical model is estimated to simulate the UEFA Champions League groups and compare the candidate schedules used in the 2021/22 season according to the competitiveness of the matches played in the last round(s). The option followed in four of the eight groups is found to be optimal under a wide set of parameters. Minimising the number of strongly stakeless matches is verified to be a likely goal in the computer draw of the fixture that remains hidden from the public.

Following the research agenda initiated by Munoz & Vassilvitskii [1] and Lykouris & Vassilvitskii [2] on learning-augmented online algorithms for classical online optimization problems, in this work, we consider the Online Facility Location problem under this framework. In Online Facility Location (OFL), demands arrive one-by-one in a metric space and must be (irrevocably) assigned to an open facility upon arrival, without any knowledge about future demands. We present an online algorithm for OFL that exploits potentially imperfect predictions on the locations of the optimal facilities. We prove that the competitive ratio decreases smoothly from sublogarithmic in the number of demands to constant, as the error, i.e., the total distance of the predicted locations to the optimal facility locations, decreases towards zero. We complement our analysis with a matching lower bound establishing that the dependence of the algorithm's competitive ratio on the error is optimal, up to constant factors. Finally, we evaluate our algorithm on real world data and compare our learning augmented approach with the current best online algorithm for the problem.

We study the problem of testing whether a function $f: \mathbb{R}^n \to \mathbb{R}$ is a polynomial of degree at most $d$ in the \emph{distribution-free} testing model. Here, the distance between functions is measured with respect to an unknown distribution $\mathcal{D}$ over $\mathbb{R}^n$ from which we can draw samples. In contrast to previous work, we do not assume that $\mathcal{D}$ has finite support. We design a tester that given query access to $f$, and sample access to $\mathcal{D}$, makes $(d/\varepsilon)^{O(1)}$ many queries to $f$, accepts with probability $1$ if $f$ is a polynomial of degree $d$, and rejects with probability at least $2/3$ if every degree-$d$ polynomial $P$ disagrees with $f$ on a set of mass at least $\varepsilon$ with respect to $\mathcal{D}$. Our result also holds under mild assumptions when we receive only a polynomial number of bits of precision for each query to $f$, or when $f$ can only be queried on rational points representable using a logarithmic number of bits. Along the way, we prove a new stability theorem for multivariate polynomials that may be of independent interest.

Let ${\mathcal M}\subset {\mathbb R}^n$ be a $C^2$-smooth compact submanifold of dimension $d$. Assume that the volume of ${\mathcal M}$ is at most $V$ and the reach (i.e. the normal injectivity radius) of ${\mathcal M}$ is greater than $\tau$. Moreover, let $\mu$ be a probability measure on ${\mathcal M}$ whose density on ${\mathcal M}$ is a strictly positive Lipschitz-smooth function. Let $x_j\in {\mathcal M}$, $j=1,2,\dots,N$ be $N$ independent random samples from distribution $\mu$. Also, let $\xi_j$, $j=1,2,\dots, N$ be independent random samples from a Gaussian random variable in ${\mathbb R}^n$ having covariance $\sigma^2I$, where $\sigma$ is less than a certain specified function of $d, V$ and $\tau$. We assume that we are given the data points $y_j=x_j+\xi_j,$ $j=1,2,\dots,N$, modelling random points of ${\mathcal M}$ with measurement noise. We develop an algorithm which produces from these data, with high probability, a $d$ dimensional submanifold ${\mathcal M}_o\subset {\mathbb R}^n$ whose Hausdorff distance to ${\mathcal M}$ is less than $Cd\sigma^2/\tau$ and whose reach is greater than $c{\tau}/d^6$ with universal constants $C,c > 0$. The number $N$ of random samples required depends almost linearly on $n$, polynomially on $\sigma^{-1}$ and exponentially on $d$.

It is shown, with two sets of indicators that separately load on two distinct factors, independent of one another conditional on the past, that if it is the case that at least one of the factors causally affects the other, then, in many settings, the process will converge to a factor model in which a single factor will suffice to capture the covariance structure among the indicators. Factor analysis with one wave of data can then not distinguish between factor models with a single factor versus those with two factors that are causally related. Therefore, unless causal relations between factors can be ruled out a priori, alleged empirical evidence from one-wave factor analysis for a single factor still leaves open the possibilities of a single factor or of two factors that causally affect one another. The implications for interpreting the factor structure of psychological scales, such as self-report scales for anxiety and depression, or for happiness and purpose, are discussed. The results are further illustrated through simulations to gain insight into the practical implications of the results in more realistic settings prior to the convergence of the processes. Some further generalizations to an arbitrary number of underlying factors are noted.

Learning accurate classifiers for novel categories from very few examples, known as few-shot image classification, is a challenging task in statistical machine learning and computer vision. The performance in few-shot classification suffers from the bias in the estimation of classifier parameters; however, an effective underlying bias reduction technique that could alleviate this issue in training few-shot classifiers has been overlooked. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Firth bias reduction in few-shot classification. Theoretically, Firth bias reduction removes the $O(N^{-1})$ first order term from the small-sample bias of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator. Here we show that the general Firth bias reduction technique simplifies to encouraging uniform class assignment probabilities for multinomial logistic classification, and almost has the same effect in cosine classifiers. We derive an easy-to-implement optimization objective for Firth penalized multinomial logistic and cosine classifiers, which is equivalent to penalizing the cross-entropy loss with a KL-divergence between the uniform label distribution and the predictions. Then, we empirically evaluate that it is consistently effective across the board for few-shot image classification, regardless of (1) the feature representations from different backbones, (2) the number of samples per class, and (3) the number of classes. Finally, we show the robustness of Firth bias reduction, in the case of imbalanced data distribution. Our implementation is available at //github.com/ehsansaleh/firth_bias_reduction

Holonomic functions play an essential role in Computer Algebra since they allow the application of many symbolic algorithms. Among all algorithmic attempts to find formulas for power series, the holonomic property remains the most important requirement to be satisfied by the function under consideration. The targeted functions mainly summarize that of meromorphic functions. However, expressions like $\tan(z)$, $z/(\exp(z)-1)$, $\sec(z)$, etc., particularly, reciprocals, quotients and compositions of holonomic functions, are generally not holonomic. Therefore their power series are inaccessible by the holonomic framework. From the mathematical dictionaries, one can observe that most of the known closed-form formulas of non-holonomic power series involve another sequence whose evaluation depends on some finite summations. In the case of $\tan(z)$ and $\sec(z)$ the corresponding sequences are the Bernoulli and Euler numbers, respectively. Thus providing a symbolic approach that yields complete representations when linear summations for power series coefficients of non-holonomic functions appear, might be seen as a step forward towards the representation of non-holonomic power series. By adapting the method of ansatz with undetermined coefficients, we build an algorithm that computes least-order quadratic differential equations with polynomial coefficients for a large class of non-holonomic functions. A differential equation resulting from this procedure is converted into a recurrence equation by applying the Cauchy product formula and rewriting powers into polynomials and derivatives into shifts. Finally, using enough initial values we are able to give normal form representations to characterize several non-holonomic power series and prove non-trivial identities. We discuss this algorithm and its implementation for Maple 2022.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

The notion of "in-domain data" in NLP is often over-simplistic and vague, as textual data varies in many nuanced linguistic aspects such as topic, style or level of formality. In addition, domain labels are many times unavailable, making it challenging to build domain-specific systems. We show that massive pre-trained language models implicitly learn sentence representations that cluster by domains without supervision -- suggesting a simple data-driven definition of domains in textual data. We harness this property and propose domain data selection methods based on such models, which require only a small set of in-domain monolingual data. We evaluate our data selection methods for neural machine translation across five diverse domains, where they outperform an established approach as measured by both BLEU and by precision and recall of sentence selection with respect to an oracle.

Training a deep architecture using a ranking loss has become standard for the person re-identification task. Increasingly, these deep architectures include additional components that leverage part detections, attribute predictions, pose estimators and other auxiliary information, in order to more effectively localize and align discriminative image regions. In this paper we adopt a different approach and carefully design each component of a simple deep architecture and, critically, the strategy for training it effectively for person re-identification. We extensively evaluate each design choice, leading to a list of good practices for person re-identification. By following these practices, our approach outperforms the state of the art, including more complex methods with auxiliary components, by large margins on four benchmark datasets. We also provide a qualitative analysis of our trained representation which indicates that, while compact, it is able to capture information from localized and discriminative regions, in a manner akin to an implicit attention mechanism.