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Let ${\mathcal M}\subset {\mathbb R}^n$ be a $C^2$-smooth compact submanifold of dimension $d$. Assume that the volume of ${\mathcal M}$ is at most $V$ and the reach (i.e. the normal injectivity radius) of ${\mathcal M}$ is greater than $\tau$. Moreover, let $\mu$ be a probability measure on ${\mathcal M}$ whose density on ${\mathcal M}$ is a strictly positive Lipschitz-smooth function. Let $x_j\in {\mathcal M}$, $j=1,2,\dots,N$ be $N$ independent random samples from distribution $\mu$. Also, let $\xi_j$, $j=1,2,\dots, N$ be independent random samples from a Gaussian random variable in ${\mathbb R}^n$ having covariance $\sigma^2I$, where $\sigma$ is less than a certain specified function of $d, V$ and $\tau$. We assume that we are given the data points $y_j=x_j+\xi_j,$ $j=1,2,\dots,N$, modelling random points of ${\mathcal M}$ with measurement noise. We develop an algorithm which produces from these data, with high probability, a $d$ dimensional submanifold ${\mathcal M}_o\subset {\mathbb R}^n$ whose Hausdorff distance to ${\mathcal M}$ is less than $Cd\sigma^2/\tau$ and whose reach is greater than $c{\tau}/d^6$ with universal constants $C,c > 0$. The number $N$ of random samples required depends almost linearly on $n$, polynomially on $\sigma^{-1}$ and exponentially on $d$.

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We establish the following two main results on order types of points in general position in the plane (realizable simple planar order types, realizable uniform acyclic oriented matroids of rank $3$): (a) The number of extreme points in an $n$-point order type, chosen uniformly at random from all such order types, is on average $4+o(1)$. For labeled order types, this number has average $4- \frac{8}{n^2 - n +2}$ and variance at most $3$. (b) The (labeled) order types read off a set of $n$ points sampled independently from the uniform measure on a convex planar domain, smooth or polygonal, or from a Gaussian distribution are concentrated, i.e. such sampling typically encounters only a vanishingly small fraction of all order types of the given size. Result (a) generalizes to arbitrary dimension $d$ for labeled order types with the average number of extreme points $2d+o(1)$ and constant variance. We also discuss to what extent our methods generalize to the abstract setting of uniform acyclic oriented matroids. Moreover, our methods allow to show the following relative of the Erd\H{o}s-Szekeres theorem: for any fixed $k$, as $n \to \infty$, a proportion $1 - O(1/n)$ of the $n$-point simple order types contain a triangle enclosing a convex $k$-chain over an edge. For the unlabeled case in (a), we prove that for any antipodal, finite subset of the $2$-dimensional sphere, the group of orientation preserving bijections is cyclic, dihedral or one of $A_4$, $S_4$ or $A_5$ (and each case is possible). These are the finite subgroups of $SO(3)$ and our proof follows the lines of their characterization by Felix Klein.

Estimation of a conditional mean (linking a set of features to an outcome of interest) is a fundamental statistical task. While there is an appeal to flexible nonparametric procedures, effective estimation in many classical nonparametric function spaces (e.g., multivariate Sobolev spaces) can be prohibitively difficult -- both statistically and computationally -- especially when the number of features is large. In this paper, we present (penalized) sieve estimators for regression in nonparametric tensor product spaces: These spaces are more amenable to multivariate regression, and allow us to, in-part, avoid the curse of dimensionality. Our estimators can be easily applied to multivariate nonparametric problems and have appealing statistical and computational properties. Moreover, they can effectively leverage additional structures such as feature sparsity. In this manuscript, we give theoretical guarantees, indicating that the predictive performance of our estimators scale favorably in dimension. In addition, we also present numerical examples to compare the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators with several popular machine learning methods.

Real-time motion tracking of kinematic chains is a key prerequisite in the control of, e.g., robotic actuators and autonomous vehicles and also has numerous biomechanical applications. In recent years, it has been shown that, by placing inertial sensors on segments that are connected by rotational joints, the motion of that kinematic chain can be tracked accurately. These methods specifically avoid using magnetometer measurements, which are known to be unreliable since the magnetic field at the different sensor locations is typically different. They rely on the assumption that the motion of the kinematic chain is sufficiently rich to assure observability of the relative pose. However, a formal investigation of this crucial requirement has not yet been presented, and no specific conditions for observability have so far been given. In this work, we present an observability analysis and show that the relative pose of the body segments is indeed observable under a very mild condition on the motion. We support our results by simulation studies, in which we employ a state estimator that neither uses magnetometer measurements nor additional sensors and does not impose assumptions on the accelerometer to measure only the direction of gravity, nor on the range of motion or degrees of freedom of the joints. We investigate the effect of the amount of excitation and of stationary periods in the data on the accuracy of the estimates. We then use experimental data from two mechanical joints as well as from a human gait experiment to validate the observability criterion in practice and to show that small excitation levels are sufficient for obtaining accurate estimates even in the presence of time periods during which the motion is not observable.

Given is a 1.5D terrain $\mathcal{T}$, i.e., an $x$-monotone polygonal chain in $\mathbb{R}^2$. For a given $2\le k\le n$, our objective is to approximate the largest area or perimeter convex polygon of exactly or at most $k$ vertices inside $\mathcal{T}$. For a constant $k>3$, we design an FPTAS that efficiently approximates the largest convex polygons with at most $k$ vertices, within a factor $(1-\epsilon)$. For the case where $k=2$, we design an $O(n)$ time exact algorithm for computing the longest line segment in $\mathcal{T}$, and for $k=3$, we design an $O(n \log n)$ time exact algorithm for computing the largest-perimeter triangle that lies within $\mathcal{T}$.

The utility of reinforcement learning is limited by the alignment of reward functions with the interests of human stakeholders. One promising method for alignment is to learn the reward function from human-generated preferences between pairs of trajectory segments. These human preferences are typically assumed to be informed solely by partial return, the sum of rewards along each segment. We find this assumption to be flawed and propose modeling preferences instead as arising from a different statistic: each segment's regret, a measure of a segment's deviation from optimal decision-making. Given infinitely many preferences generated according to regret, we prove that we can identify a reward function equivalent to the reward function that generated those preferences. We also prove that the previous partial return model lacks this identifiability property without preference noise that reveals rewards' relative proportions, and we empirically show that our proposed regret preference model outperforms it with finite training data in otherwise the same setting. Additionally, our proposed regret preference model better predicts real human preferences and also learns reward functions from these preferences that lead to policies that are better human-aligned. Overall, this work establishes that the choice of preference model is impactful, and our proposed regret preference model provides an improvement upon a core assumption of recent research.

Measuring the stability of conclusions derived from Ordinary Least Squares linear regression is critically important, but most metrics either only measure local stability (i.e. against infinitesimal changes in the data), or are only interpretable under statistical assumptions. Recent work proposes a simple, global, finite-sample stability metric: the minimum number of samples that need to be removed so that rerunning the analysis overturns the conclusion, specifically meaning that the sign of a particular coefficient of the estimated regressor changes. However, besides the trivial exponential-time algorithm, the only approach for computing this metric is a greedy heuristic that lacks provable guarantees under reasonable, verifiable assumptions; the heuristic provides a loose upper bound on the stability and also cannot certify lower bounds on it. We show that in the low-dimensional regime where the number of covariates is a constant but the number of samples is large, there are efficient algorithms for provably estimating (a fractional version of) this metric. Applying our algorithms to the Boston Housing dataset, we exhibit regression analyses where we can estimate the stability up to a factor of $3$ better than the greedy heuristic, and analyses where we can certify stability to dropping even a majority of the samples.

Let $E$ be a separable Banach space and let $X, X_1,\dots, X_n, \dots$ be i.i.d. Gaussian random variables taking values in $E$ with mean zero and unknown covariance operator $\Sigma: E^{\ast}\mapsto E.$ The complexity of estimation of $\Sigma$ based on observations $X_1,\dots, X_n$ is naturally characterized by the so called effective rank of $\Sigma:$ ${\bf r}(\Sigma):= \frac{{\mathbb E}_{\Sigma}\|X\|^2}{\|\Sigma\|},$ where $\|\Sigma\|$ is the operator norm of $\Sigma.$ Given a smooth real valued functional $f$ defined on the space $L(E^{\ast},E)$ of symmetric linear operators from $E^{\ast}$ into $E$ (equipped with the operator norm), our goal is to study the problem of estimation of $f(\Sigma)$ based on $X_1,\dots, X_n.$ The estimators of $f(\Sigma)$ based on jackknife type bias reduction are considered and the dependence of their Orlicz norm error rates on effective rank ${\bf r}(\Sigma),$ the sample size $n$ and the degree of H\"older smoothness $s$ of functional $f$ are studied. In particular, it is shown that, if ${\bf r}(\Sigma)\lesssim n^{\alpha}$ for some $\alpha\in (0,1)$ and $s\geq \frac{1}{1-\alpha},$ then the classical $\sqrt{n}$-rate is attainable and, if $s> \frac{1}{1-\alpha},$ then asymptotic normality and asymptotic efficiency of the resulting estimators hold. Previously, the results of this type (for different estimators) were obtained only in the case of finite dimensional Euclidean space $E={\mathbb R}^d$ and for covariance operators $\Sigma$ whose spectrum is bounded away from zero (in which case, ${\bf r}(\Sigma)\asymp d$).

We provide new insights on eluder dimension, a complexity measure that has been extensively used to bound the regret of algorithms for online bandits and reinforcement learning with function approximation. First, we study the relationship between the eluder dimension for a function class and a generalized notion of rank, defined for any monotone "activation" $\sigma : \mathbb{R}\to \mathbb{R}$, which corresponds to the minimal dimension required to represent the class as a generalized linear model. It is known that when $\sigma$ has derivatives bounded away from $0$, $\sigma$-rank gives rise to an upper bound on eluder dimension for any function class; we show however that eluder dimension can be exponentially smaller than $\sigma$-rank. We also show that the condition on the derivative is necessary; namely, when $\sigma$ is the $\mathsf{relu}$ activation, the eluder dimension can be exponentially larger than $\sigma$-rank. For binary-valued function classes, we obtain a characterization of the eluder dimension in terms of star number and threshold dimension, quantities which are relevant in active learning and online learning respectively.

In industrial experiments, controlling variability is of paramount importance to ensure product quality. Classical regression models for mixture experiments are widely used in industry, however, when the assumption of constant variance is not satisfied, the building of procedures that allow minimizing the variability becomes necessary and other methods of statistical modeling should be considered. In this article, we use the class of generalized linear models (GLMs) to build statistical models in mixture experiments. The GLMs class is general and very flexible, generalizing some of the most important probability distributions, and allows modeling the variability through the methodology of the joint modeling of mean and dispersion (JMMD). This paper shows how the JMMD can be used to obtain models for mean and variance in mixture experiments. We give a comprehensive understanding of the procedures for estimating parameters and selecting variables in the JMMD. The variable selection procedure was adapted for the case of mixture experiments, where the verification of constant dispersion is ensured by the existence of only the constant term in the dispersion model; the absence of the constant term or the existence of any other term in the dispersion model implies non-constant dispersion. A simulation study, considering the most common case of Normal distribution, was used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed variable selection procedure. A practical example from the Food Industry was used to illustrate the proposed methodology.

The encoder network of an autoencoder is an approximation of the nearest point projection onto the manifold spanned by the decoder. A concern with this approximation is that, while the output of the encoder is always unique, the projection can possibly have infinitely many values. This implies that the latent representations learned by the autoencoder can be misleading. Borrowing from geometric measure theory, we introduce the idea of using the reach of the manifold spanned by the decoder to determine if an optimal encoder exists for a given dataset and decoder. We develop a local generalization of this reach and propose a numerical estimator thereof. We demonstrate that this allows us to determine which observations can be expected to have a unique, and thereby trustworthy, latent representation. As our local reach estimator is differentiable, we investigate its usage as a regularizer and show that this leads to learned manifolds for which projections are more often unique than without regularization.

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