Let $E$ be a separable Banach space and let $X, X_1,\dots, X_n, \dots$ be i.i.d. Gaussian random variables taking values in $E$ with mean zero and unknown covariance operator $\Sigma: E^{\ast}\mapsto E.$ The complexity of estimation of $\Sigma$ based on observations $X_1,\dots, X_n$ is naturally characterized by the so called effective rank of $\Sigma:$ ${\bf r}(\Sigma):= \frac{{\mathbb E}_{\Sigma}\|X\|^2}{\|\Sigma\|},$ where $\|\Sigma\|$ is the operator norm of $\Sigma.$ Given a smooth real valued functional $f$ defined on the space $L(E^{\ast},E)$ of symmetric linear operators from $E^{\ast}$ into $E$ (equipped with the operator norm), our goal is to study the problem of estimation of $f(\Sigma)$ based on $X_1,\dots, X_n.$ The estimators of $f(\Sigma)$ based on jackknife type bias reduction are considered and the dependence of their Orlicz norm error rates on effective rank ${\bf r}(\Sigma),$ the sample size $n$ and the degree of H\"older smoothness $s$ of functional $f$ are studied. In particular, it is shown that, if ${\bf r}(\Sigma)\lesssim n^{\alpha}$ for some $\alpha\in (0,1)$ and $s\geq \frac{1}{1-\alpha},$ then the classical $\sqrt{n}$-rate is attainable and, if $s> \frac{1}{1-\alpha},$ then asymptotic normality and asymptotic efficiency of the resulting estimators hold. Previously, the results of this type (for different estimators) were obtained only in the case of finite dimensional Euclidean space $E={\mathbb R}^d$ and for covariance operators $\Sigma$ whose spectrum is bounded away from zero (in which case, ${\bf r}(\Sigma)\asymp d$).
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Mark-point dependence plays a critical role in research problems that can be fitted into the general framework of marked point processes. In this work, we focus on adjusting for mark-point dependence when estimating the mean and covariance functions of the mark process, given independent replicates of the marked point process. We assume that the mark process is a Gaussian process and the point process is a log-Gaussian Cox process, where the mark-point dependence is generated through the dependence between two latent Gaussian processes. Under this framework, naive local linear estimators ignoring the mark-point dependence can be severely biased. We show that this bias can be corrected using a local linear estimator of the cross-covariance function and establish uniform convergence rates of the bias-corrected estimators. Furthermore, we propose a test statistic based on local linear estimators for mark-point independence, which is shown to converge to an asymptotic normal distribution in a parametric $\sqrt{n}$-convergence rate. Model diagnostics tools are developed for key model assumptions and a robust functional permutation test is proposed for a more general class of mark-point processes. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is demonstrated using extensive simulations and applications to two real data examples.
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely popular approach for the hyperparameter optimization (HPO) in machine learning. At its core, BO iteratively evaluates promising configurations until a user-defined budget, such as wall-clock time or number of iterations, is exhausted. While the final performance after tuning heavily depends on the provided budget, it is hard to pre-specify an optimal value in advance. In this work, we propose an effective and intuitive termination criterion for BO that automatically stops the procedure if it is sufficiently close to the global optimum. Our key insight is that the discrepancy between the true objective (predictive performance on test data) and the computable target (validation performance) suggests stopping once the suboptimality in optimizing the target is dominated by the statistical estimation error. Across an extensive range of real-world HPO problems and baselines, we show that our termination criterion achieves a better trade-off between the test performance and optimization time. Additionally, we find that overfitting may occur in the context of HPO, which is arguably an overlooked problem in the literature, and show how our termination criterion helps to mitigate this phenomenon on both small and large datasets.
In this paper, we study a sequential decision making problem faced by e-commerce carriers related to when to send out a vehicle from the central depot to serve customer requests, and in which order to provide the service, under the assumption that the time at which parcels arrive at the depot is stochastic and dynamic. The objective is to maximize the number of parcels that can be delivered during the service hours. We propose two reinforcement learning approaches for solving this problem, one based on a policy function approximation (PFA) and the second on a value function approximation (VFA). Both methods are combined with a look-ahead strategy, in which future release dates are sampled in a Monte-Carlo fashion and a tailored batch approach is used to approximate the value of future states. Our PFA and VFA make a good use of branch-and-cut-based exact methods to improve the quality of decisions. We also establish sufficient conditions for partial characterization of optimal policy and integrate them into PFA/VFA. In an empirical study based on 720 benchmark instances, we conduct a competitive analysis using upper bounds with perfect information and we show that PFA and VFA greatly outperform two alternative myopic approaches. Overall, PFA provides best solutions, while VFA (which benefits from a two-stage stochastic optimization model) achieves a better tradeoff between solution quality and computing time.
Shape-constrained density estimation is an important topic in mathematical statistics. We focus on densities on $\mathbb{R}^d$ that are log-concave, and we study geometric properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for weighted samples. Cule, Samworth, and Stewart showed that the logarithm of the optimal log-concave density is piecewise linear and supported on a regular subdivision of the samples. This defines a map from the space of weights to the set of regular subdivisions of the samples, i.e. the face poset of their secondary polytope. We prove that this map is surjective. In fact, every regular subdivision arises in the MLE for some set of weights with positive probability, but coarser subdivisions appear to be more likely to arise than finer ones. To quantify these results, we introduce a continuous version of the secondary polytope, whose dual we name the Samworth body. This article establishes a new link between geometric combinatorics and nonparametric statistics, and it suggests numerous open problems.
Consider the sum $Y=B+B(H)$ of a Brownian motion $B$ and an independent fractional Brownian motion $B(H)$ with Hurst parameter $H\in(0,1)$. Surprisingly, even though $B(H)$ is not a semimartingale, Cheridito proved in [Bernoulli 7 (2001) 913--934] that $Y$ is a semimartingale if $H>3/4$. Moreover, $Y$ is locally equivalent to $B$ in this case, so $H$ cannot be consistently estimated from local observations of $Y$. This paper pivots on a second surprise in this model: if $B$ and $B(H)$ become correlated, then $Y$ will never be a semimartingale, and $H$ can be identified, regardless of its value. This and other results will follow from a detailed statistical analysis of a more general class of processes called mixed semimartingales, which are semiparametric extensions of $Y$ with stochastic volatility in both the martingale and the fractional component. In particular, we derive consistent estimators and feasible central limit theorems for all parameters and processes that can be identified from high-frequency observations. We further show that our estimators achieve optimal rates in a minimax sense. The estimation of mixed semimartingales with correlation is motivated by applications to high-frequency financial data contaminated by rough noise.
We consider shrinkage estimation of higher order Hilbert space valued Bochner integrals in a non-parametric setting. We propose estimators that shrink the $U$-statistic estimator of the Bochner integral towards a pre-specified target element in the Hilbert space. Depending on the degeneracy of the kernel of the $U$-statistic, we construct consistent shrinkage estimators with fast rates of convergence, and develop oracle inequalities comparing the risks of the the $U$-statistic estimator and its shrinkage version. Surprisingly, we show that the shrinkage estimator designed by assuming complete degeneracy of the kernel of the $U$-statistic is a consistent estimator even when the kernel is not complete degenerate. This work subsumes and improves upon Krikamol et al., 2016, JMLR and Zhou et al., 2019, JMVA, which only handle mean element and covariance operator estimation in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We also specialize our results to normal mean estimation and show that for $d\ge 3$, the proposed estimator strictly improves upon the sample mean in terms of the mean squared error.
Recently it was shown that the so-called guided local Hamiltonian problem -- estimating the smallest eigenvalue of a $k$-local Hamiltonian when provided with a description of a quantum state ('guiding state') that is guaranteed to have substantial overlap with the true groundstate -- is BQP-complete for $k \geq 6$ when the required precision is inverse polynomial in the system size $n$, and remains hard even when the overlap of the guiding state with the groundstate is close to a constant $\left(\frac12 - \Omega\left(\frac{1}{\mathop{poly}(n)}\right)\right)$. We improve upon this result in three ways: by showing that it remains BQP-complete when i) the Hamiltonian is 2-local, ii) the overlap between the guiding state and target eigenstate is as large as $1 - \Omega\left(\frac{1}{\mathop{poly}(n)}\right)$, and iii) when one is interested in estimating energies of excited states, rather than just the groundstate. Interestingly, iii) is only made possible by first showing that ii) holds.
Importance sampling (IS) is valuable in reducing the variance of Monte Carlo sampling for many areas, including finance, rare event simulation, and Bayesian inference. It is natural and obvious to combine quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods with IS to achieve a faster rate of convergence. However, a naive replacement of Monte Carlo with QMC may not work well. This paper investigates the convergence rates of randomized QMC-based IS for estimating integrals with respect to a Gaussian measure, in which the IS measure is a Gaussian or $t$ distribution. We prove that if the target function satisfies the so-called boundary growth condition and the covariance matrix of the IS density has eigenvalues no smaller than 1, then randomized QMC with the Gaussian proposal has a root mean squared error of $O(N^{-1+\epsilon})$ for arbitrarily small $\epsilon>0$. Similar results of $t$ distribution as the proposal are also established. These sufficient conditions help to assess the effectiveness of IS in QMC. For some particular applications, we find that the Laplace IS, a very general approach to approximate the target function by a quadratic Taylor approximation around its mode, has eigenvalues smaller than 1, making the resulting integrand less favorable for QMC. From this point of view, when using Gaussian distributions as the IS proposal, a change of measure via Laplace IS may transform a favorable integrand into unfavorable one for QMC although the variance of Monte Carlo sampling is reduced. We also give some examples to verify our propositions and warn against naive replacement of MC with QMC under IS proposals. Numerical results suggest that using Laplace IS with $t$ distributions is more robust than that with Gaussian distributions.
This study develops an asymptotic theory for estimating the time-varying characteristics of locally stationary functional time series. We investigate a kernel-based method to estimate the time-varying covariance operator and the time-varying mean function of a locally stationary functional time series. In particular, we derive the convergence rate of the kernel estimator of the covariance operator and associated eigenvalue and eigenfunctions and establish a central limit theorem for the kernel-based locally weighted sample mean. As applications of our results, we discuss the prediction of locally stationary functional time series and methods for testing the equality of time-varying mean functions in two functional samples.
We present a new approach-the ALVar estimator-to estimation of asymptotic variance in sequential Monte Carlo methods, or, particle filters. The method, which adjusts adaptively the lag of the estimator proposed in [Olsson, J. and Douc, R. (2019). Numerically stable online estimation of variance in particle filters. Bernoulli, 25(2), pp. 1504-1535] applies to very general distribution flows and particle filters, including auxiliary particle filters with adaptive resampling. The algorithm operates entirely online, in the sense that it is able to monitor the variance of the particle filter in real time and with, on the average, constant computational complexity and memory requirements per iteration. Crucially, it does not require the calibration of any algorithmic parameter. Estimating the variance only on the basis of the genealogy of the propagated particle cloud, without additional simulations, the routine requires only minor code additions to the underlying particle algorithm. Finally, we prove that the ALVar estimator is consistent for the true asymptotic variance as the number of particles tends to infinity and illustrate numerically its superiority to existing approaches.
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