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We study the problem of unbiased estimation of expectations with respect to (w.r.t.) $\pi$ a given, general probability measure on $(\mathbb{R}^d,\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^d))$ that is absolutely continuous with respect to a standard Gaussian measure. We focus on simulation associated to a particular class of diffusion processes, sometimes termed the Schr\"odinger-F\"ollmer Sampler, which is a simulation technique that approximates the law of a particular diffusion bridge process $\{X_t\}_{t\in [0,1]}$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$, $d\in \mathbb{N}_0$. This latter process is constructed such that, starting at $X_0=0$, one has $X_1\sim \pi$. Typically, the drift of the diffusion is intractable and, even if it were not, exact sampling of the associated diffusion is not possible. As a result, \cite{sf_orig,jiao} consider a stochastic Euler-Maruyama scheme that allows the development of biased estimators for expectations w.r.t.~$\pi$. We show that for this methodology to achieve a mean square error of $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^2)$, for arbitrary $\epsilon>0$, the associated cost is $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-5})$. We then introduce an alternative approach that provides unbiased estimates of expectations w.r.t.~$\pi$, that is, it does not suffer from the time discretization bias or the bias related with the approximation of the drift function. We prove that to achieve a mean square error of $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^2)$, the associated cost is, with high probability, $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-2}|\log(\epsilon)|^{2+\delta})$, for any $\delta>0$. We implement our method on several examples including Bayesian inverse problems.

We consider regret minimization for Adversarial Markov Decision Processes (AMDPs), where the loss functions are changing over time and adversarially chosen, and the learner only observes the losses for the visited state-action pairs (i.e., bandit feedback). While there has been a surge of studies on this problem using Online-Mirror-Descent (OMD) methods, very little is known about the Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FTPL) methods, which are usually computationally more efficient and also easier to implement since it only requires solving an offline planning problem. Motivated by this, we take a closer look at FTPL for learning AMDPs, starting from the standard episodic finite-horizon setting. We find some unique and intriguing difficulties in the analysis and propose a workaround to eventually show that FTPL is also able to achieve near-optimal regret bounds in this case. More importantly, we then find two significant applications: First, the analysis of FTPL turns out to be readily generalizable to delayed bandit feedback with order-optimal regret, while OMD methods exhibit extra difficulties (Jin et al., 2022). Second, using FTPL, we also develop the first no-regret algorithm for learning communicating AMDPs in the infinite-horizon setting with bandit feedback and stochastic transitions. Our algorithm is efficient assuming access to an offline planning oracle, while even for the easier full-information setting, the only existing algorithm (Chandrasekaran and Tewari, 2021) is computationally inefficient.

As a tool for estimating networks in high dimensions, graphical models are commonly applied to calcium imaging data to estimate functional neuronal connectivity, i.e. relationships between the activities of neurons. However, in many calcium imaging data sets, the full population of neurons is not recorded simultaneously, but instead in partially overlapping blocks. This leads to the Graph Quilting problem, as first introduced by (Vinci et.al. 2019), in which the goal is to infer the structure of the full graph when only subsets of features are jointly observed. In this paper, we study a novel two-step approach to Graph Quilting, which first imputes the complete covariance matrix using low-rank covariance completion techniques before estimating the graph structure. We introduce three approaches to solve this problem: block singular value decomposition, nuclear norm penalization, and non-convex low-rank factorization. While prior works have studied low-rank matrix completion, we address the challenges brought by the block-wise missingness and are the first to investigate the problem in the context of graph learning. We discuss theoretical properties of the two-step procedure, showing graph selection consistency of one proposed approach by proving novel L infinity-norm error bounds for matrix completion with block-missingness. We then investigate the empirical performance of the proposed methods on simulations and on real-world data examples, through which we show the efficacy of these methods for estimating functional connectivity from calcium imaging data.

This work considers Gaussian process interpolation with a periodized version of the Mat{\'e}rn covariance function (Stein, 1999, Section 6.7) with Fourier coefficients $\phi$($\alpha$^2 + j^2)^(--$\nu$--1/2). Convergence rates are studied for the joint maximum likelihood estimation of $\nu$ and $\phi$ when the data is sampled according to the model. The mean integrated squared error is also analyzed with fixed and estimated parameters, showing that maximum likelihood estimation yields asymptotically the same error as if the ground truth was known. Finally, the case where the observed function is a ''deterministic'' element of a continuous Sobolev space is also considered, suggesting that bounding assumptions on some parameters can lead to different estimates.

In decision-making problems such as the multi-armed bandit, an agent learns sequentially by optimizing a certain feedback. While the mean reward criterion has been extensively studied, other measures that reflect an aversion to adverse outcomes, such as mean-variance or conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), can be of interest for critical applications (healthcare, agriculture). Algorithms have been proposed for such risk-aware measures under bandit feedback without contextual information. In this work, we study contextual bandits where such risk measures can be elicited as linear functions of the contexts through the minimization of a convex loss. A typical example that fits within this framework is the expectile measure, which is obtained as the solution of an asymmetric least-square problem. Using the method of mixtures for supermartingales, we derive confidence sequences for the estimation of such risk measures. We then propose an optimistic UCB algorithm to learn optimal risk-aware actions, with regret guarantees similar to those of generalized linear bandits. This approach requires solving a convex problem at each round of the algorithm, which we can relax by allowing only approximated solution obtained by online gradient descent, at the cost of slightly higher regret. We conclude by evaluating the resulting algorithms on numerical experiments.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are formal models commonly used in sequential decision-making. MDPs capture the stochasticity that may arise, for instance, from imprecise actuators via probabilities in the transition function. However, in data-driven applications, deriving precise probabilities from (limited) data introduces statistical errors that may lead to unexpected or undesirable outcomes. Uncertain MDPs (uMDPs) do not require precise probabilities but instead use so-called uncertainty sets in the transitions, accounting for such limited data. Tools from the formal verification community efficiently compute robust policies that provably adhere to formal specifications, like safety constraints, under the worst-case instance in the uncertainty set. We continuously learn the transition probabilities of an MDP in a robust anytime-learning approach that combines a dedicated Bayesian inference scheme with the computation of robust policies. In particular, our method (1) approximates probabilities as intervals, (2) adapts to new data that may be inconsistent with an intermediate model, and (3) may be stopped at any time to compute a robust policy on the uMDP that faithfully captures the data so far. We show the effectiveness of our approach and compare it to robust policies computed on uMDPs learned by the UCRL2 reinforcement learning algorithm in an experimental evaluation on several benchmarks.

In recent years, deep learning has been a topic of interest in almost all disciplines due to its impressive empirical success in analyzing complex data sets, such as imaging, genetics, climate, and medical data. While most of the developments are treated as black-box machines, there is an increasing interest in interpretable, reliable, and robust deep learning models applicable to a broad class of applications. Feature-selected deep learning is proven to be promising in this regard. However, the recent developments do not address the situations of ultra-high dimensional and highly correlated feature selection in addition to the high noise level. In this article, we propose a novel screening and cleaning strategy with the aid of deep learning for the cluster-level discovery of highly correlated predictors with a controlled error rate. A thorough empirical evaluation over a wide range of simulated scenarios demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method by achieving high power while having a minimal number of false discoveries. Furthermore, we implemented the algorithm in the riboflavin (vitamin $B_2$) production dataset in the context of understanding the possible genetic association with riboflavin production. The gain of the proposed methodology is illustrated by achieving lower prediction error compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

We consider observations $(X,y)$ from single index models with unknown link function, Gaussian covariates and a regularized M-estimator $\hat\beta$ constructed from convex loss function and regularizer. In the regime where sample size $n$ and dimension $p$ are both increasing such that $p/n$ has a finite limit, the behavior of the empirical distribution of $\hat\beta$ and the predicted values $X\hat\beta$ has been previously characterized in a number of models: The empirical distributions are known to converge to proximal operators of the loss and penalty in a related Gaussian sequence model, which captures the interplay between ratio $p/n$, loss, regularization and the data generating process. This connection between$(\hat\beta,X\hat\beta)$ and the corresponding proximal operators require solving fixed-point equations that typically involve unobservable quantities such as the prior distribution on the index or the link function. This paper develops a different theory to describe the empirical distribution of $\hat\beta$ and $X\hat\beta$: Approximations of $(\hat\beta,X\hat\beta)$ in terms of proximal operators are provided that only involve observable adjustments. These proposed observable adjustments are data-driven, e.g., do not require prior knowledge of the index or the link function. These new adjustments yield confidence intervals for individual components of the index, as well as estimators of the correlation of $\hat\beta$ with the index. The interplay between loss, regularization and the model is thus captured in a data-driven manner, without solving the fixed-point equations studied in previous works. The results apply to both strongly convex regularizers and unregularized M-estimation. Simulations are provided for the square and logistic loss in single index models including logistic regression and 1-bit compressed sensing with 20\% corrupted bits.

We consider a potential outcomes model in which interference may be present between any two units but the extent of interference diminishes with spatial distance. The causal estimand is the global average treatment effect, which compares outcomes under the counterfactuals that all or no units are treated. We study a class of designs in which space is partitioned into clusters that are randomized into treatment and control. For each design, we estimate the treatment effect using a Horvitz-Thompson estimator that compares the average outcomes of units with all or no neighbors treated, where the neighborhood radius is of the same order as the cluster size dictated by the design. We derive the estimator's rate of convergence as a function of the design and degree of interference and use this to obtain estimator-design pairs that achieve near-optimal rates of convergence under relatively minimal assumptions on interference. We prove that the estimators are asymptotically normal and provide a variance estimator. For practical implementation of the designs, we suggest partitioning space using clustering algorithms.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.