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Specifications of complex, large scale, computer software and hardware systems can be radically simplified by using simple maps from input sequences to output values. These "state machine maps" provide an alternative representation of classical Moore type state machines. Composition of state machine maps corresponds to state machine products and can be used to specify essentially any type of interconnection as well as parallel and distributed computation. State machine maps can also specify abstract properties of systems and are significantly more concise and scalable than traditional representations of automata. Examples included here include specifications of producer/consumer software, network distributed consensus, real-time digital circuits, and operating system scheduling. The motivation for this work comes from experience designing and developing operating systems and real-time software where weak methods for understanding and exploring designs is a well known handicap. The methods introduced here are based on ordinary discrete mathematics, primitive recursive functions and deterministic state machines and are intended, initially, to aid the intuition and understanding of the system developers. Staying strictly within the boundaries of classical deterministic state machines anchors the methods to the algebraic structures of automata and semigroups, obviates any need for axiomatic deduction systems, "formal methods", or extensions to the model, and makes the specifications more faithful to engineering practice. While state machine maps are obvious representations of state machines, the techniques introduced here for defining and composing them are novel.

Mixed-dimensional elliptic equations exhibiting a hierarchical structure are commonly used to model problems with high aspect ratio inclusions, such as flow in fractured porous media. We derive general abstract estimates based on the theory of functional a posteriori error estimates, for which guaranteed upper bounds for the primal and dual variables and two-sided bounds for the primal-dual pair are obtained. We improve on the abstract results obtained with the functional approach by proposing four different ways of estimating the residual errors based on the extent the approximate solution has conservation properties, i.e.: (1) no conservation, (2) subdomain conservation, (3) grid-level conservation, and (4) exact conservation. This treatment results in sharper and fully computable estimates when mass is conserved either at the grid level or exactly, with a comparable structure to those obtained from grid-based a posteriori techniques. We demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our theoretical results through numerical experiments using four different discretization methods for synthetic problems and applications based on benchmarks of flow in fractured porous media.

We prove a central limit theorem for the entropic transportation cost between subgaussian probability measures, centered at the population cost. This is the first result which allows for asymptotically valid inference for entropic optimal transport between measures which are not necessarily discrete. In the compactly supported case, we complement these results with new, faster, convergence rates for the expected entropic transportation cost between empirical measures. Our proof is based on strengthening convergence results for dual solutions to the entropic optimal transport problem.

Applications of Reinforcement Learning (RL), in which agents learn to make a sequence of decisions despite lacking complete information about the latent states of the controlled system, that is, they act under partial observability of the states, are ubiquitous. Partially observable RL can be notoriously difficult -- well-known information-theoretic results show that learning partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) requires an exponential number of samples in the worst case. Yet, this does not rule out the existence of large subclasses of POMDPs over which learning is tractable. In this paper we identify such a subclass, which we call weakly revealing POMDPs. This family rules out the pathological instances of POMDPs where observations are uninformative to a degree that makes learning hard. We prove that for weakly revealing POMDPs, a simple algorithm combining optimism and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is sufficient to guarantee polynomial sample complexity. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first provably sample-efficient result for learning from interactions in overcomplete POMDPs, where the number of latent states can be larger than the number of observations.

Cycling is a promising solution to unsustainable urban transport systems. However, prevailing bicycle network development follows a slow and piecewise process, without taking into account the structural complexity of transportation networks. Here we explore systematically the topological limitations of urban bicycle network development. For 62 cities we study different variations of growing a synthetic bicycle network between an arbitrary set of points routed on the urban street network. We find initially decreasing returns on investment until a critical threshold, posing fundamental consequences to sustainable urban planning: Cities must invest into bicycle networks with the right growth strategy, and persistently, to surpass a critical mass. We also find pronounced overlaps of synthetically grown networks in cities with well-developed existing bicycle networks, showing that our model reflects reality. Growing networks from scratch makes our approach a generally applicable starting point for sustainable urban bicycle network planning with minimal data requirements.

Planners require accurate demand forecasts when optimising offers to maximise revenue on network products, such as railway itineraries. However, network effects complicate demand forecasting in general and outlier detection in particular. For example, sudden increases in demand for a specific destination in a transportation network not only affect legs arriving at that destination, but also their feeder legs. Network effects are particularly relevant when transport service providers, such as railway or coach companies, offer many multi-leg itineraries. In this paper, we present a novel method for generating automated ranked outlier lists to support analysts in adjusting demand forecasts. To that end, we propose a two-step method for detecting outlying demand from transportation network bookings. The first step clusters network legs to appropriately partition and pool booking patterns. The second step identifies outliers within each cluster and creates a ranked alert list of affected legs. We show that this method outperforms analyses that independently consider leg data without regard for network implications, especially in highly-connected networks where most passengers book multi-leg itineraries. A simulation study demonstrates the robustness of the approach and quantifies the potential revenue benefits from adjusting network demand forecasts for offer optimisation. Finally, we illustrate the applicability on empirical data obtained from Deutsche Bahn.

We propose in this paper a data driven state estimation scheme for generating nonlinear reduced models for parametric families of PDEs, directly providing data-to-state maps, represented in terms of Deep Neural Networks. A major constituent is a sensor-induced decomposition of a model-compliant Hilbert space warranting approximation in problem relevant metrics. It plays a similar role as in a Parametric Background Data Weak framework for state estimators based on Reduced Basis concepts. Extensive numerical tests shed light on several optimization strategies that are to improve robustness and performance of such estimators.

One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.

With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources, distributed optimization algorithms have attracted significant attention for power systems applications due to their potential for superior scalability, privacy, and robustness to a single point-of-failure. The Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) is a popular distributed optimization algorithm; however, its convergence performance is highly dependent on the selection of penalty parameters, which are usually chosen heuristically. In this work, we use reinforcement learning (RL) to develop an adaptive penalty parameter selection policy for the AC optimal power flow (ACOPF) problem solved via ADMM with the goal of minimizing the number of iterations until convergence. We train our RL policy using deep Q-learning, and show that this policy can result in significantly accelerated convergence (up to a 59% reduction in the number of iterations compared to existing, curvature-informed penalty parameter selection methods). Furthermore, we show that our RL policy demonstrates promise for generalizability, performing well under unseen loading schemes as well as under unseen losses of lines and generators (up to a 50% reduction in iterations). This work thus provides a proof-of-concept for using RL for parameter selection in ADMM for power systems applications.

The adaptive processing of structured data is a long-standing research topic in machine learning that investigates how to automatically learn a mapping from a structured input to outputs of various nature. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the adaptive processing of graphs, which led to the development of different neural network-based methodologies. In this thesis, we take a different route and develop a Bayesian Deep Learning framework for graph learning. The dissertation begins with a review of the principles over which most of the methods in the field are built, followed by a study on graph classification reproducibility issues. We then proceed to bridge the basic ideas of deep learning for graphs with the Bayesian world, by building our deep architectures in an incremental fashion. This framework allows us to consider graphs with discrete and continuous edge features, producing unsupervised embeddings rich enough to reach the state of the art on several classification tasks. Our approach is also amenable to a Bayesian nonparametric extension that automatizes the choice of almost all model's hyper-parameters. Two real-world applications demonstrate the efficacy of deep learning for graphs. The first concerns the prediction of information-theoretic quantities for molecular simulations with supervised neural models. After that, we exploit our Bayesian models to solve a malware-classification task while being robust to intra-procedural code obfuscation techniques. We conclude the dissertation with an attempt to blend the best of the neural and Bayesian worlds together. The resulting hybrid model is able to predict multimodal distributions conditioned on input graphs, with the consequent ability to model stochasticity and uncertainty better than most works. Overall, we aim to provide a Bayesian perspective into the articulated research field of deep learning for graphs.