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Nonparametric estimation of the mean and covariance functions is ubiquitous in functional data analysis and local linear smoothing techniques are most frequently used. Zhang and Wang (2016) explored different types of asymptotic properties of the estimation, which reveal interesting phase transition phenomena based on the relative order of the average sampling frequency per subject $T$ to the number of subjects $n$, partitioning the data into three categories: ``sparse'', ``semi-dense'' and ``ultra-dense''. In an increasingly available high-dimensional scenario, where the number of functional variables $p$ is large in relation to $n$, we revisit this open problem from a non-asymptotic perspective by deriving comprehensive concentration inequalities for the local linear smoothers. Besides being of interest by themselves, our non-asymptotic results lead to elementwise maximum rates of $L_2$ convergence and uniform convergence serving as a fundamentally important tool for further convergence analysis when $p$ grows exponentially with $n$ and possibly $T$. With the presence of extra $\log p$ terms to account for the high-dimensional effect, we then investigate the scaled phase transitions and the corresponding elementwise maximum rates from sparse to semi-dense to ultra-dense functional data in high dimensions. Finally, numerical studies are carried out to confirm our established theoretical properties.

This paper surveys and evaluates some popular state of the art methods for algorithmic curvature and normal estimation. In addition to surveying existing methods we also propose a new method for robust curvature estimation and evaluate it against existing methods thus demonstrating its superiority to existing methods in the case of significant data noise. Throughout this paper we are concerned with computation in low dimensional spaces (N < 10) and primarily focus on the computation of the Weingarten map and quantities that may be derived from this; however, the algorithms discussed are theoretically applicable in any dimension. One thing that is common to all these methods is their basis in an estimated graph structure. For any of these methods to work the local geometry of the manifold must be exploited; however, in the case of point cloud data it is often difficult to discover a robust manifold structure underlying the data, even in simple cases, which can greatly influence the results of these algorithms. We hope that in pushing these algorithms to their limits we are able to discover, and perhaps resolve, many major pitfalls that may affect potential users and future researchers hoping to improve these methods

Understanding how convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can efficiently learn high-dimensional functions remains a fundamental challenge. A popular belief is that these models harness the local and hierarchical structure of natural data such as images. Yet, we lack a quantitative understanding of how such structure affects performance, e.g., the rate of decay of the generalisation error with the number of training samples. In this paper, we study infinitely-wide deep CNNs in the kernel regime. First, we show that the spectrum of the corresponding kernel inherits the hierarchical structure of the network, and we characterise its asymptotics. Then, we use this result together with generalisation bounds to prove that deep CNNs adapt to the spatial scale of the target function. In particular, we find that if the target function depends on low-dimensional subsets of adjacent input variables, then the decay of the error is controlled by the effective dimensionality of these subsets. Conversely, if the target function depends on the full set of input variables, then the error decay is controlled by the input dimension. We conclude by computing the generalisation error of a deep CNN trained on the output of another deep CNN with randomly-initialised parameters. Interestingly, we find that, despite their hierarchical structure, the functions generated by infinitely-wide deep CNNs are too rich to be efficiently learnable in high dimension.

Stick-breaking (SB) processes are often adopted in Bayesian mixture models for generating mixing weights. When covariates influence the sizes of clusters, SB mixtures are particularly convenient as they can leverage their connection to binary regression to ease both the specification of covariate effects and posterior computation. Existing SB models are typically constructed based on continually breaking a single remaining piece of the unit stick. We view this from a dyadic tree perspective in terms of a lopsided bifurcating tree that extends only in one side. We show that several unsavory characteristics of SB models are in fact largely due to this lopsided tree structure. We consider a generalized class of SB models with alternative bifurcating tree structures and examine the influence of the underlying tree topology on the resulting Bayesian analysis in terms of prior assumptions, posterior uncertainty, and computational effectiveness. In particular, we provide evidence that a balanced tree topology, which corresponds to continually breaking all remaining pieces of the unit stick, can resolve or mitigate several undesirable properties of SB models that rely on a lopsided tree.

The Markov property is widely imposed in analysis of time series data. Correspondingly, testing the Markov property, and relatedly, inferring the order of a Markov model, are of paramount importance. In this article, we propose a nonparametric test for the Markov property in high-dimensional time series via deep conditional generative learning. We also apply the test sequentially to determine the order of the Markov model. We show that the test controls the type-I error asymptotically, and has the power approaching one. Our proposal makes novel contributions in several ways. We utilize and extend state-of-the-art deep generative learning to estimate the conditional density functions, and establish a sharp upper bound on the approximation error of the estimators. We derive a doubly robust test statistic, which employs a nonparametric estimation but achieves a parametric convergence rate. We further adopt sample splitting and cross-fitting to minimize the conditions required to ensure the consistency of the test. We demonstrate the efficacy of the test through both simulations and the three data applications.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are a cornerstone of comparative effectiveness because they remove the confounding bias present in observational studies. However, RCTs are typically much smaller than observational studies because of financial and ethical considerations. Therefore it is of great interest to be able to incorporate plentiful observational data into the analysis of smaller RCTs. Previous estimators developed for this purpose rely on unrealistic additional assumptions without which the added data can bias the effect estimate. Recent work proposed an alternative method (prognostic adjustment) that imposes no additional assumption and increases efficiency in the analysis of RCTs. The idea is to use the observational data to learn a prognostic model: a regression of the outcome onto the covariates. The predictions from this model, generated from the RCT subjects' baseline variables, are used as a covariate in a linear model. In this work, we extend this framework to work when conducting inference with nonparametric efficient estimators in trial analysis. Using simulations, we find that this approach provides greater power (i.e., smaller standard errors) than without prognostic adjustment, especially when the trial is small. We also find that the method is robust to observed or unobserved shifts between the observational and trial populations and does not introduce bias. Lastly, we showcase this estimator leveraging real-world historical data on a randomized blood transfusion study of trauma patients.

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has become a popular tool to control the risk of uncertain outcomes and ensure reliable performance in various sequential decision-making problems. While policy gradient methods have been developed for risk-sensitive RL, it remains unclear if these methods enjoy the same global convergence guarantees as in the risk-neutral case. In this paper, we consider a class of dynamic time-consistent risk measures, called Expected Conditional Risk Measures (ECRMs), and derive policy gradient updates for ECRM-based objective functions. Under both constrained direct parameterization and unconstrained softmax parameterization, we provide global convergence and iteration complexities of the corresponding risk-averse policy gradient algorithms. We further test risk-averse variants of REINFORCE and actor-critic algorithms to demonstrate the efficacy of our method and the importance of risk control.

Let $\mu$ be a probability measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$ and $\mu_N$ its empirical measure with sample size $N$. We prove a concentration inequality for the optimal transport cost between $\mu$ and $\mu_N$ for cost functions with polynomial local growth, that can have superpolynomial global growth. This result generalizes and improves upon estimates of Fournier and Guillin. The proof combines ideas from empirical process theory with known concentration rates for compactly supported $\mu$. By partitioning $\mathbb{R}^d$ into annuli, we infer a global estimate from local estimates on the annuli and conclude that the global estimate can be expressed as a sum of the local estimate and a mean-deviation probability for which efficient bounds are known.

The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.

We consider the problem of discovering $K$ related Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the involved graph structures share a consistent causal order and sparse unions of supports. Under the multi-task learning setting, we propose a $l_1/l_2$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for learning $K$ linear structural equation models. We theoretically show that the joint estimator, by leveraging data across related tasks, can achieve a better sample complexity for recovering the causal order (or topological order) than separate estimations. Moreover, the joint estimator is able to recover non-identifiable DAGs, by estimating them together with some identifiable DAGs. Lastly, our analysis also shows the consistency of union support recovery of the structures. To allow practical implementation, we design a continuous optimization problem whose optimizer is the same as the joint estimator and can be approximated efficiently by an iterative algorithm. We validate the theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of the joint estimator in experiments.