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One of the most catastrophic neurological disorders worldwide is Parkinson's Disease. Along with it, the treatment is complicated and abundantly expensive. The only effective action to control the progression is diagnosing it in the early stage. However, this is challenging because early detection necessitates a large and complex clinical study. This experimental work used Machine Learning techniques to automate the early detection of Parkinson's Disease from clinical characteristics, voice features and motor examination. In this study, we develop ML models utilizing a public dataset of 130 individuals, 30 of whom are untreated Parkinson's Disease patients, 50 of whom are Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behaviour Disorder patients who are at a greater risk of contracting Parkinson's Disease, and 50 of whom are Healthy Controls. We use MinMax Scaler to rescale the data points, Local Outlier Factor to remove outliers, and SMOTE to balance existing class frequency. Afterwards, apply a number of Machine Learning techniques. We implement the approaches in such a way that data leaking and overfitting are not possible. Finally, obtained 100% accuracy in classifying PD and RBD patients, as well as 92% accuracy in classifying PD and HC individuals.

Why are life trajectories difficult to predict? We investigated this question through in-depth qualitative interviews with 40 families sampled from a multi-decade longitudinal study. Our sampling and interviewing process were informed by the earlier efforts of hundreds of researchers to predict life outcomes for participants in this study. The qualitative evidence we uncovered in these interviews combined with a well-known mathematical decomposition of prediction error helps us identify some origins of unpredictability and create a new conceptual framework. Our specific evidence and our more general framework suggest that unpredictability should be expected in many life trajectory prediction tasks, even in the presence of complex algorithms and large datasets. Our work also provides a foundation for future empirical and theoretical work on unpredictability in human lives.

High-dimensional longitudinal data is increasingly used in a wide range of scientific studies. However, there are few statistical methods for high-dimensional linear mixed models (LMMs), as most Bayesian variable selection or penalization methods are designed for independent observations. Additionally, the few available software packages for high-dimensional LMMs suffer from scalability issues. This work presents an efficient and accurate Bayesian framework for high-dimensional LMMs. We use empirical Bayes estimators of hyperparameters for increased flexibility and an Expectation-Conditional-Minimization (ECM) algorithm for computationally efficient maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation of parameters. The novelty of the approach lies in its partitioning and parameter expansion as well as its fast and scalable computation. We illustrate Linear Mixed Modeling with PaRtitiOned empirical Bayes ECM (LMM-PROBE) in simulation studies evaluating fixed and random effects estimation along with computation time. A real-world example is provided using data from a study of lupus in children, where we identify genes and clinical factors associated with a new lupus biomarker and predict the biomarker over time.

Multiple systems estimation using a Poisson loglinear model is a standard approach to quantifying hidden populations where data sources are based on lists of known cases. Information criteria are often used for selecting between the large number of possible models. Confidence intervals are often reported conditional on the model selected, providing an over-optimistic impression of estimation accuracy. A bootstrap approach is a natural way to account for the model selection. However, because the model selection step has to be carried out for every bootstrap replication, there may be a high or even prohibitive computational burden. We explore the merit of modifying the model selection procedure in the bootstrap to look only among a subset of models, chosen on the basis of their information criterion score on the original data. This provides large computational gains with little apparent effect on inference. We also incorporate rigorous and economical ways of approaching issues of the existence of estimators when applying the method to sparse data tables.

Mental disorders impact the lives of millions of people globally, not only impeding their day-to-day lives but also markedly reducing life expectancy. This paper addresses the persistent challenge of predicting mortality in patients with mental diagnoses using predictive machine-learning models with electronic health records (EHR). Data from patients with mental disease diagnoses were extracted from the well-known clinical MIMIC-III data set utilizing demographic, prescription, and procedural information. Four machine learning algorithms (Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbors) were used, with results indicating that Random Forest and Support Vector Machine models outperformed others, with AUC scores of 0.911. Feature importance analysis revealed that drug prescriptions, particularly Morphine Sulfate, play a pivotal role in prediction. We applied a variety of machine learning algorithms to predict 30-day mortality followed by feature importance analysis. This study can be used to assist hospital workers in identifying at-risk patients to reduce excess mortality.

The prevailing statistical approach to analyzing persistence diagrams is concerned with filtering out topological noise. In this paper, we adopt a different viewpoint and aim at estimating the actual distribution of a random persistence diagram, which captures both topological signal and noise. To that effect, Chazel and Divol (2019) proved that, under general conditions, the expected value of a random persistence diagram is a measure admitting a Lebesgue density, called the persistence intensity function. In this paper, we are concerned with estimating the persistence intensity function and a novel, normalized version of it -- called the persistence density function. We present a class of kernel-based estimators based on an i.i.d. sample of persistence diagrams and derive estimation rates in the supremum norm. As a direct corollary, we obtain uniform consistency rates for estimating linear representations of persistence diagrams, including Betti numbers and persistence surfaces. Interestingly, the persistence density function delivers stronger statistical guarantees.

We provide a new characterization of both belief update and belief revision in terms of a Kripke-Lewis semantics. We consider frames consisting of a set of states, a Kripke belief relation and a Lewis selection function. Adding a valuation to a frame yields a model. Given a model and a state, we identify the initial belief set K with the set of formulas that are believed at that state and we identify either the updated belief set or the revised belief set, prompted by the input represented by formula A, as the set of formulas that are the consequent of conditionals that (1) are believed at that state and (2) have A as antecedent. We show that this class of models characterizes both the Katsuno-Mendelzon (KM) belief update functions and the AGM belief revision functions, in the following sense: (1) each model gives rise to a partial belief function that can be completed into a full KM/AGM update/revision function, and (2) for every KM/AGM update/revision function there is a model whose associated belief function coincides with it. The difference between update and revision can be reduced to two semantic properties that appear in a stronger form in revision relative to update, thus confirming the finding by Peppas et al. (1996) that, "for a fixed theory K, revising K is much the same as updating K"

In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.

Knowledge graphs (KGs) of real-world facts about entities and their relationships are useful resources for a variety of natural language processing tasks. However, because knowledge graphs are typically incomplete, it is useful to perform knowledge graph completion or link prediction, i.e. predict whether a relationship not in the knowledge graph is likely to be true. This paper serves as a comprehensive survey of embedding models of entities and relationships for knowledge graph completion, summarizing up-to-date experimental results on standard benchmark datasets and pointing out potential future research directions.

Breast cancer remains a global challenge, causing over 1 million deaths globally in 2018. To achieve earlier breast cancer detection, screening x-ray mammography is recommended by health organizations worldwide and has been estimated to decrease breast cancer mortality by 20-40%. Nevertheless, significant false positive and false negative rates, as well as high interpretation costs, leave opportunities for improving quality and access. To address these limitations, there has been much recent interest in applying deep learning to mammography; however, obtaining large amounts of annotated data poses a challenge for training deep learning models for this purpose, as does ensuring generalization beyond the populations represented in the training dataset. Here, we present an annotation-efficient deep learning approach that 1) achieves state-of-the-art performance in mammogram classification, 2) successfully extends to digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT; "3D mammography"), 3) detects cancers in clinically-negative prior mammograms of cancer patients, 4) generalizes well to a population with low screening rates, and 5) outperforms five-out-of-five full-time breast imaging specialists by improving absolute sensitivity by an average of 14%. Our results demonstrate promise towards software that can improve the accuracy of and access to screening mammography worldwide.