亚洲男人的天堂2018av,欧美草比,久久久久久免费视频精选,国色天香在线看免费,久久久久亚洲av成人片仓井空

Why are life trajectories difficult to predict? We investigated this question through in-depth qualitative interviews with 40 families sampled from a multi-decade longitudinal study. Our sampling and interviewing process were informed by the earlier efforts of hundreds of researchers to predict life outcomes for participants in this study. The qualitative evidence we uncovered in these interviews combined with a well-known mathematical decomposition of prediction error helps us identify some origins of unpredictability and create a new conceptual framework. Our specific evidence and our more general framework suggest that unpredictability should be expected in many life trajectory prediction tasks, even in the presence of complex algorithms and large datasets. Our work also provides a foundation for future empirical and theoretical work on unpredictability in human lives.

相關內容

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) are a widely used framework for sequential decision-making under parameter uncertainty. RMDPs have been extensively studied when the objective is to maximize the discounted return, but little is known for average optimality (optimizing the long-run average of the rewards obtained over time) and Blackwell optimality (remaining discount optimal for all discount factors sufficiently close to 1). In this paper, we prove several foundational results for RMDPs beyond the discounted return. We show that average optimal policies can be chosen stationary and deterministic for sa-rectangular RMDPs but, perhaps surprisingly, that history-dependent (Markovian) policies strictly outperform stationary policies for average optimality in s-rectangular RMDPs. We also study Blackwell optimality for sa-rectangular RMDPs, where we show that {\em approximate} Blackwell optimal policies always exist, although Blackwell optimal policies may not exist. We also provide a sufficient condition for their existence, which encompasses virtually any examples from the literature. We then discuss the connection between average and Blackwell optimality, and we describe several algorithms to compute the optimal average return. Interestingly, our approach leverages the connections between RMDPs and stochastic games.

To understand high precision observations of exoplanets and brown dwarfs, we need detailed and complex general circulation models (GCMs) that incorporate hydrodynamics, chemistry, and radiation. For this study, we specifically examined the coupling between chemistry and radiation in GCMs and compared different methods for the mixing of opacities of different chemical species in the correlated-k assumption, when equilibrium chemistry cannot be assumed. We propose a fast machine learning method based on DeepSets (DS), which effectively combines individual correlated-k opacities (k-tables). We evaluated the DS method alongside other published methods such as adaptive equivalent extinction (AEE) and random overlap with rebinning and resorting (RORR). We integrated these mixing methods into our GCM (expeRT/MITgcm) and assessed their accuracy and performance for the example of the hot Jupiter HD~209458 b. Our findings indicate that the DS method is both accurate and efficient for GCM usage, whereas RORR is too slow. Additionally, we observed that the accuracy of AEE depends on its specific implementation and may introduce numerical issues in achieving radiative transfer solution convergence. We then applied the DS mixing method in a simplified chemical disequilibrium situation, where we modeled the rainout of TiO and VO, and confirmed that the rainout of TiO and VO would hinder the formation of a stratosphere. To further expedite the development of consistent disequilibrium chemistry calculations in GCMs, we provide documentation and code for coupling the DS mixing method with correlated-k radiative transfer solvers. The DS method has been extensively tested to be accurate enough for GCMs; however, other methods might be needed for accelerating atmospheric retrievals.

We discuss probabilistic neural networks with a fixed internal representation as models for machine understanding. Here understanding is intended as mapping data to an already existing representation which encodes an {\em a priori} organisation of the feature space. We derive the internal representation by requiring that it satisfies the principles of maximal relevance and of maximal ignorance about how different features are combined. We show that, when hidden units are binary variables, these two principles identify a unique model -- the Hierarchical Feature Model (HFM) -- which is fully solvable and provides a natural interpretation in terms of features. We argue that learning machines with this architecture enjoy a number of interesting properties, like the continuity of the representation with respect to changes in parameters and data, the possibility to control the level of compression and the ability to support functions that go beyond generalisation. We explore the behaviour of the model with extensive numerical experiments and argue that models where the internal representation is fixed reproduce a learning modality which is qualitatively different from that of traditional models such as Restricted Boltzmann Machines.

Most often, virtual acoustic rendering employs real-time updated room acoustic simulations to accomplish auralization for a variable listener perspective. As an alternative, we propose and test a technique to interpolate room impulse responses, specifically Ambisonic room impulse responses (ARIRs) available at a grid of spatially distributed receiver perspectives, measured or simulated in a desired acoustic environment. In particular, we extrapolate a triplet of neighboring ARIRs to the variable listener perspective, preceding their linear interpolation. The extrapolation is achieved by decomposing each ARIR into localized sound events and re-assigning their direction, time, and level to what could be observed at the listener perspective, with as much temporal, directional, and perspective context as possible. We propose to undertake this decomposition in two levels: Peaks in the early ARIRs are decomposed into jointly localized sound events, based on time differences of arrival observed in either an ARIR triplet, or all ARIRs observing the direct sound. Sound events that could not be jointly localized are treated as residuals whose less precise localization utilizes direction-of-arrival detection and the estimated time of arrival. For the interpolated rendering, suitable parameter settings are found by evaluating the proposed method in a listening experiment, using both measured and simulated ARIR data sets, under static and time-varying conditions.

Modelling human cognition can provide key insights into behavioral dynamics under changing conditions. This enables synthetic data generation and guides adaptive interventions for cognitive regulation. Challenges arise when environments are highly dynamic, obscuring stimulus-behavior relationships. We propose a cognitive agent integrating drift-diffusion with deep reinforcement learning to simulate granular stress effects on logical reasoning process. Leveraging a large dataset of 21,157 logical responses, we investigate performance impacts of dynamic stress. This prior knowledge informed model design and evaluation. Quantitatively, the framework improves cognition modelling by capturing both subject-specific and stimuli-specific behavioural differences. Qualitatively, it captures general trends in human logical reasoning under stress. Our approach is extensible to examining diverse environmental influences on cognition and behavior. Overall, this work demonstrates a powerful, data-driven methodology to simulate and understand the vagaries of human logical reasoning process in dynamic contexts.

This work introduces a novel cause-effect relation in Markov decision processes using the probability-raising principle. Initially, sets of states as causes and effects are considered, which is subsequently extended to regular path properties as effects and then as causes. The paper lays the mathematical foundations and analyzes the algorithmic properties of these cause-effect relations. This includes algorithms for checking cause conditions given an effect and deciding the existence of probability-raising causes. As the definition allows for sub-optimal coverage properties, quality measures for causes inspired by concepts of statistical analysis are studied. These include recall, coverage ratio and f-score. The computational complexity for finding optimal causes with respect to these measures is analyzed.

Inspired by the success of WaveNet in multi-subject speech synthesis, we propose a novel neural network based on causal convolutions for multi-subject motion modeling and generation. The network can capture the intrinsic characteristics of the motion of different subjects, such as the influence of skeleton scale variation on motion style. Moreover, after fine-tuning the network using a small motion dataset for a novel skeleton that is not included in the training dataset, it is able to synthesize high-quality motions with a personalized style for the novel skeleton. The experimental results demonstrate that our network can model the intrinsic characteristics of motions well and can be applied to various motion modeling and synthesis tasks.

In real-world tasks, there is usually a large amount of unlabeled data and labeled data. The task of combining the two to learn is known as semi-supervised learning. Experts can use logical rules to label unlabeled data, but this operation is costly. The combination of perception and reasoning has a good effect in processing such semi-supervised tasks with domain knowledge. However, acquiring domain knowledge and the correction, reduction and generation of rules remain complex problems to be solved. Rough set theory is an important method for solving knowledge processing in information systems. In this paper, we propose a rule general abductive learning by rough set (RS-ABL). By transforming the target concept and sub-concepts of rules into information tables, rough set theory is used to solve the acquisition of domain knowledge and the correction, reduction and generation of rules at a lower cost. This framework can also generate more extensive negative rules to enhance the breadth of the knowledge base. Compared with the traditional semi-supervised learning method, RS-ABL has higher accuracy in dealing with semi-supervised tasks.

Learning from human feedback (LHF) -- and in particular learning from pairwise preferences -- has recently become a crucial ingredient in training large language models (LLMs), and has been the subject of much research. Most recent works frame it as a reinforcement learning problem, where a reward function is learned from pairwise preference data and the LLM is treated as a policy which is adapted to maximize the rewards, often under additional regularization constraints. We propose an alternative interpretation which centers on the generative process for pairwise preferences and treats LHF as a density estimation problem. We provide theoretical and empirical results showing that for a family of generative processes defined via preference behavior distribution equations, training a reward function on pairwise preferences effectively models an annotator's implicit preference distribution. Finally, we discuss and present findings on "annotator misspecification" -- failure cases where wrong modeling assumptions are made about annotator behavior, resulting in poorly-adapted models -- suggesting that approaches that learn from pairwise human preferences could have trouble learning from a population of annotators with diverse viewpoints.

We present ParrotTTS, a modularized text-to-speech synthesis model leveraging disentangled self-supervised speech representations. It can train a multi-speaker variant effectively using transcripts from a single speaker. ParrotTTS adapts to a new language in low resource setup and generalizes to languages not seen while training the self-supervised backbone. Moreover, without training on bilingual or parallel examples, ParrotTTS can transfer voices across languages while preserving the speaker specific characteristics, e.g., synthesizing fluent Hindi speech using a French speaker's voice and accent. We present extensive results in monolingual and multi-lingual scenarios. ParrotTTS outperforms state-of-the-art multi-lingual TTS models using only a fraction of paired data as latter.

北京阿比特科技有限公司