As the global deployment of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology intensifies in the fight against climate change, it becomes increasingly imperative to establish robust monitoring and detection mechanisms for potential underground CO2 leakage, particularly through pre-existing or induced faults in the storage reservoir's seals. While techniques such as history matching and time-lapse seismic monitoring of CO2 storage have been used successfully in tracking the evolution of CO2 plumes in the subsurface, these methods lack principled approaches to characterize uncertainties related to the CO2 plumes' behavior. Inclusion of systematic assessment of uncertainties is essential for risk mitigation for the following reasons: (i) CO2 plume-induced changes are small and seismic data is noisy; (ii) changes between regular and irregular (e.g., caused by leakage) flow patterns are small; and (iii) the reservoir properties that control the flow are strongly heterogeneous and typically only available as distributions. To arrive at a formulation capable of inferring flow patterns for regular and irregular flow from well and seismic data, the performance of conditional normalizing flow will be analyzed on a series of carefully designed numerical experiments. While the inferences presented are preliminary in the context of an early CO2 leakage detection system, the results do indicate that inferences with conditional normalizing flows can produce high-fidelity estimates for CO2 plumes with or without leakage. We are also confident that the inferred uncertainty is reasonable because it correlates well with the observed errors. This uncertainty stems from noise in the seismic data and from the lack of precise knowledge of the reservoir's fluid flow properties.
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Dynamical systems across the sciences, from electrical circuits to ecological networks, undergo qualitative and often catastrophic changes in behavior, called bifurcations, when their underlying parameters cross a threshold. Existing methods predict oncoming catastrophes in individual systems but are primarily time-series-based and struggle both to categorize qualitative dynamical regimes across diverse systems and to generalize to real data. To address this challenge, we propose a data-driven, physically-informed deep-learning framework for classifying dynamical regimes and characterizing bifurcation boundaries based on the extraction of topologically invariant features. We focus on the paradigmatic case of the supercritical Hopf bifurcation, which is used to model periodic dynamics across a wide range of applications. Our convolutional attention method is trained with data augmentations that encourage the learning of topological invariants which can be used to detect bifurcation boundaries in unseen systems and to design models of biological systems like oscillatory gene regulatory networks. We further demonstrate our method's use in analyzing real data by recovering distinct proliferation and differentiation dynamics along pancreatic endocrinogenesis trajectory in gene expression space based on single-cell data. Our method provides valuable insights into the qualitative, long-term behavior of a wide range of dynamical systems, and can detect bifurcations or catastrophic transitions in large-scale physical and biological systems.
The prevalence and mobility of smartphones make these a widely used tool for environmental health research. However, their potential for determining aggregated air quality index (AQI) based on PM2.5 concentration in specific locations remains largely unexplored in the existing literature. In this paper, we thoroughly examine the challenges associated with predicting location-specific PM2.5 concentration using images taken with smartphone cameras. The focus of our study is on Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, due to its significant air pollution levels and the large population exposed to it. Our research involves the development of a Deep Convolutional Neural Network (DCNN), which we train using over a thousand outdoor images taken and annotated. These photos are captured at various locations in Dhaka, and their labels are based on PM2.5 concentration data obtained from the local US consulate, calculated using the NowCast algorithm. Through supervised learning, our model establishes a correlation index during training, enhancing its ability to function as a Picture-based Predictor of PM2.5 Concentration (PPPC). This enables the algorithm to calculate an equivalent daily averaged AQI index from a smartphone image. Unlike, popular overly parameterized models, our model shows resource efficiency since it uses fewer parameters. Furthermore, test results indicate that our model outperforms popular models like ViT and INN, as well as popular CNN-based models such as VGG19, ResNet50, and MobileNetV2, in predicting location-specific PM2.5 concentration. Our dataset is the first publicly available collection that includes atmospheric images and corresponding PM2.5 measurements from Dhaka. Our codes and dataset are available at //github.com/lepotatoguy/aqi.
Effective recommendation systems rely on capturing user preferences, often requiring incorporating numerous features such as universally unique identifiers (UUIDs) of entities. However, the exceptionally high cardinality of UUIDs poses a significant challenge in terms of model degradation and increased model size due to sparsity. This paper presents two innovative techniques to address the challenge of high cardinality in recommendation systems. Specifically, we propose a bag-of-words approach, combined with layer sharing, to substantially decrease the model size while improving performance. Our techniques were evaluated through offline and online experiments on Uber use cases, resulting in promising results demonstrating our approach's effectiveness in optimizing recommendation systems and enhancing their overall performance.
This paper investigates the replication of experiments by Billock and Tsou [PNAS, 2007] using the controllability of neural fields of Amari-type modelling the cortical activity in the primary visual cortex (V1), focusing on a regular funnel pattern localised in the fovea or the peripheral visual field. The aim is to understand and model the visual phenomena observed in these experiments, emphasising their nonlinear nature. The study involves designing sensory inputs simulating the visual stimuli from Billock and Tsou's experiments. The after-images induced by these inputs are then theoretically and numerically studied to determine their capacity to replicate the experimentally observed visual effects. A key aspect of this research is investigating the effects induced by the nonlinear nature of neural responses. In particular, by highlighting the importance of both excitatory and inhibitory neurons in the emergence of certain visual phenomena, this study suggests that an interplay of both types of neuronal activities plays an essential role in visual processes, challenging the assumption that the latter is mainly driven by excitatory activities alone.
Recent studies on reservoir computing essentially involve a high dimensional dynamical system as the reservoir, which transforms and stores the input as a higher dimensional state, for temporal and nontemporal data processing. We demonstrate here a method to predict temporal and nontemporal tasks by constructing virtual nodes as constituting a reservoir in reservoir computing using a nonlinear map, namely logistic map, and a simple finite trigonometric series. We predict three nonlinear systems, namely Lorenz, R\"ossler, and Hindmarsh-Rose, for temporal tasks and a seventh order polynomial for nontemporal tasks with great accuracy. Also, the prediction is made in the presence of noise and found to closely agree with the target. Remarkably, the logistic map performs well and predicts close to the actual or target values. The low values of the root mean square error confirm the accuracy of this method in terms of efficiency. Our approach removes the necessity of continuous dynamical systems for constructing the reservoir in reservoir computing. Moreover, the accurate prediction for the three different nonlinear systems suggests that this method can be considered a general one and can be applied to predict many systems. Finally, we show that the method also accurately anticipates the time series for the future (self prediction).
During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments faced the challenge of managing population behavior to prevent their healthcare systems from collapsing. Sweden adopted a strategy centered on voluntary sanitary recommendations while Belgium resorted to mandatory measures. Their consequences on pandemic progression and associated economic impacts remain insufficiently understood. This study leverages the divergent policies of Belgium and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic to relax the unrealistic -- but persistently used -- assumption that social contacts are not influenced by an epidemic's dynamics. We develop an epidemiological-economic co-simulation model where pandemic-induced behavioral changes are a superposition of voluntary actions driven by fear, prosocial behavior or social pressure, and compulsory compliance with government directives. Our findings emphasize the importance of early responses, which reduce the stringency of measures necessary to safeguard healthcare systems and minimize ensuing economic damage. Voluntary behavioral changes lead to a pattern of recurring epidemics, which should be regarded as the natural long-term course of pandemics. Governments should carefully consider prolonging lockdown longer than necessary because this leads to higher economic damage and a potentially higher second surge when measures are released. Our model can aid policymakers in the selection of an appropriate long-term strategy that minimizes economic damage.
Knowledge graphs (KGs) of real-world facts about entities and their relationships are useful resources for a variety of natural language processing tasks. However, because knowledge graphs are typically incomplete, it is useful to perform knowledge graph completion or link prediction, i.e. predict whether a relationship not in the knowledge graph is likely to be true. This paper serves as a comprehensive survey of embedding models of entities and relationships for knowledge graph completion, summarizing up-to-date experimental results on standard benchmark datasets and pointing out potential future research directions.
Deep learning constitutes a recent, modern technique for image processing and data analysis, with promising results and large potential. As deep learning has been successfully applied in various domains, it has recently entered also the domain of agriculture. In this paper, we perform a survey of 40 research efforts that employ deep learning techniques, applied to various agricultural and food production challenges. We examine the particular agricultural problems under study, the specific models and frameworks employed, the sources, nature and pre-processing of data used, and the overall performance achieved according to the metrics used at each work under study. Moreover, we study comparisons of deep learning with other existing popular techniques, in respect to differences in classification or regression performance. Our findings indicate that deep learning provides high accuracy, outperforming existing commonly used image processing techniques.
Recommender systems (RSs) have been the most important technology for increasing the business in Taobao, the largest online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) platform in China. The billion-scale data in Taobao creates three major challenges to Taobao's RS: scalability, sparsity and cold start. In this paper, we present our technical solutions to address these three challenges. The methods are based on the graph embedding framework. We first construct an item graph from users' behavior history. Each item is then represented as a vector using graph embedding. The item embeddings are employed to compute pairwise similarities between all items, which are then used in the recommendation process. To alleviate the sparsity and cold start problems, side information is incorporated into the embedding framework. We propose two aggregation methods to integrate the embeddings of items and the corresponding side information. Experimental results from offline experiments show that methods incorporating side information are superior to those that do not. Further, we describe the platform upon which the embedding methods are deployed and the workflow to process the billion-scale data in Taobao. Using online A/B test, we show that the online Click-Through-Rate (CTRs) are improved comparing to the previous recommendation methods widely used in Taobao, further demonstrating the effectiveness and feasibility of our proposed methods in Taobao's live production environment.
Nowadays, the Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have achieved impressive performance on many computer vision related tasks, such as object detection, image recognition, image retrieval, etc. These achievements benefit from the CNNs outstanding capability to learn the input features with deep layers of neuron structures and iterative training process. However, these learned features are hard to identify and interpret from a human vision perspective, causing a lack of understanding of the CNNs internal working mechanism. To improve the CNN interpretability, the CNN visualization is well utilized as a qualitative analysis method, which translates the internal features into visually perceptible patterns. And many CNN visualization works have been proposed in the literature to interpret the CNN in perspectives of network structure, operation, and semantic concept. In this paper, we expect to provide a comprehensive survey of several representative CNN visualization methods, including Activation Maximization, Network Inversion, Deconvolutional Neural Networks (DeconvNet), and Network Dissection based visualization. These methods are presented in terms of motivations, algorithms, and experiment results. Based on these visualization methods, we also discuss their practical applications to demonstrate the significance of the CNN interpretability in areas of network design, optimization, security enhancement, etc.
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