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As machine learning models become more general, we need to characterise them in richer, more meaningful ways. We describe a method to infer the cognitive profile of a system from diverse experimental data. To do so, we introduce measurement layouts that model how task-instance features interact with system capabilities to affect performance. These features must be triangulated in complex ways to be able to infer capabilities from non-populational data -- a challenge for traditional psychometric and inferential tools. Using the Bayesian probabilistic programming library PyMC, we infer different cognitive profiles for agents in two scenarios: 68 actual contestants in the AnimalAI Olympics and 30 synthetic agents for O-PIAAGETS, an object permanence battery. We showcase the potential for capability-oriented evaluation.

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Modern policy optimization methods in reinforcement learning, such as TRPO and PPO, owe their success to the use of parameterized policies. However, while theoretical guarantees have been established for this class of algorithms, especially in the tabular setting, the use of general parameterization schemes remains mostly unjustified. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for policy optimization based on mirror descent that naturally accommodates general parameterizations. The policy class induced by our scheme recovers known classes, e.g., softmax, and generates new ones depending on the choice of mirror map. Using our framework, we obtain the first result that guarantees linear convergence for a policy-gradient-based method involving general parameterization. To demonstrate the ability of our framework to accommodate general parameterization schemes, we provide its sample complexity when using shallow neural networks, show that it represents an improvement upon the previous best results, and empirically validate the effectiveness of our theoretical claims on classic control tasks.

Generative models of observations under interventions have been a vibrant topic of interest across machine learning and the sciences in recent years. For example, in drug discovery, there is a need to model the effects of diverse interventions on cells in order to characterize unknown biological mechanisms of action. We propose the Sparse Additive Mechanism Shift Variational Autoencoder, SAMS-VAE, to combine compositionality, disentanglement, and interpretability for perturbation models. SAMS-VAE models the latent state of a perturbed sample as the sum of a local latent variable capturing sample-specific variation and sparse global variables of latent intervention effects. Crucially, SAMS-VAE sparsifies these global latent variables for individual perturbations to identify disentangled, perturbation-specific latent subspaces that are flexibly composable. We evaluate SAMS-VAE both quantitatively and qualitatively on a range of tasks using two popular single cell sequencing datasets. In order to measure perturbation-specific model-properties, we also introduce a framework for evaluation of perturbation models based on average treatment effects with links to posterior predictive checks. SAMS-VAE outperforms comparable models in terms of generalization across in-distribution and out-of-distribution tasks, including a combinatorial reasoning task under resource paucity, and yields interpretable latent structures which correlate strongly to known biological mechanisms. Our results suggest SAMS-VAE is an interesting addition to the modeling toolkit for machine learning-driven scientific discovery.

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating parameters in a linear regression model. We propose a sequential learning procedure to determine the sample size for achieving a given small estimation risk, under the widely used Gauss-Markov setup with independent normal errors. The procedure is proven to enjoy the second-order efficiency and risk-efficiency properties, which are validated through Monte Carlo simulation studies. Using e-commerce data, we implement the procedure to examine the influential factors of online sales.

For industrial learning-to-rank (LTR) systems, it is common that the output of a ranking model is modified, either as a results of post-processing logic that enforces business requirements, or as a result of unforeseen design flaws or bugs present in real-world production systems. This poses a challenge for deploying off-policy learning and evaluation methods, as these often rely on the assumption that rankings implied by the model's scores coincide with displayed items to the users. Further requirements for reliable offline evaluation are proper randomization and correct estimation of the propensities of displaying each item in any given position of the ranking, which are also impacted by the aforementioned post-processing. We investigate empirically how these scenarios impair off-policy evaluation for learning-to-rank models. We then propose a novel correction method based on the Birkhoff-von-Neumann decomposition that is robust to this type of post-processing. We obtain more accurate off-policy estimates in offline experiments, overcoming the problem of post-processed rankings. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study on the impact of real-world business rules on offline evaluation of LTR models.

To quantify uncertainty, conformal prediction methods are gaining continuously more interest and have already been successfully applied to various domains. However, they are difficult to apply to time series as the autocorrelative structure of time series violates basic assumptions required by conformal prediction. We propose HopCPT, a novel conformal prediction approach for time series that not only copes with temporal structures but leverages them. We show that our approach is theoretically well justified for time series where temporal dependencies are present. In experiments, we demonstrate that our new approach outperforms state-of-the-art conformal prediction methods on multiple real-world time series datasets from four different domains.

The generalization mystery in deep learning is the following: Why do over-parameterized neural networks trained with gradient descent (GD) generalize well on real datasets even though they are capable of fitting random datasets of comparable size? Furthermore, from among all solutions that fit the training data, how does GD find one that generalizes well (when such a well-generalizing solution exists)? We argue that the answer to both questions lies in the interaction of the gradients of different examples during training. Intuitively, if the per-example gradients are well-aligned, that is, if they are coherent, then one may expect GD to be (algorithmically) stable, and hence generalize well. We formalize this argument with an easy to compute and interpretable metric for coherence, and show that the metric takes on very different values on real and random datasets for several common vision networks. The theory also explains a number of other phenomena in deep learning, such as why some examples are reliably learned earlier than others, why early stopping works, and why it is possible to learn from noisy labels. Moreover, since the theory provides a causal explanation of how GD finds a well-generalizing solution when one exists, it motivates a class of simple modifications to GD that attenuate memorization and improve generalization. Generalization in deep learning is an extremely broad phenomenon, and therefore, it requires an equally general explanation. We conclude with a survey of alternative lines of attack on this problem, and argue that the proposed approach is the most viable one on this basis.

We propose a novel method for automatic reasoning on knowledge graphs based on debate dynamics. The main idea is to frame the task of triple classification as a debate game between two reinforcement learning agents which extract arguments -- paths in the knowledge graph -- with the goal to promote the fact being true (thesis) or the fact being false (antithesis), respectively. Based on these arguments, a binary classifier, called the judge, decides whether the fact is true or false. The two agents can be considered as sparse, adversarial feature generators that present interpretable evidence for either the thesis or the antithesis. In contrast to other black-box methods, the arguments allow users to get an understanding of the decision of the judge. Since the focus of this work is to create an explainable method that maintains a competitive predictive accuracy, we benchmark our method on the triple classification and link prediction task. Thereby, we find that our method outperforms several baselines on the benchmark datasets FB15k-237, WN18RR, and Hetionet. We also conduct a survey and find that the extracted arguments are informative for users.

Generating texts which express complex ideas spanning multiple sentences requires a structured representation of their content (document plan), but these representations are prohibitively expensive to manually produce. In this work, we address the problem of generating coherent multi-sentence texts from the output of an information extraction system, and in particular a knowledge graph. Graphical knowledge representations are ubiquitous in computing, but pose a significant challenge for text generation techniques due to their non-hierarchical nature, collapsing of long-distance dependencies, and structural variety. We introduce a novel graph transforming encoder which can leverage the relational structure of such knowledge graphs without imposing linearization or hierarchical constraints. Incorporated into an encoder-decoder setup, we provide an end-to-end trainable system for graph-to-text generation that we apply to the domain of scientific text. Automatic and human evaluations show that our technique produces more informative texts which exhibit better document structure than competitive encoder-decoder methods.

It is important to detect anomalous inputs when deploying machine learning systems. The use of larger and more complex inputs in deep learning magnifies the difficulty of distinguishing between anomalous and in-distribution examples. At the same time, diverse image and text data are available in enormous quantities. We propose leveraging these data to improve deep anomaly detection by training anomaly detectors against an auxiliary dataset of outliers, an approach we call Outlier Exposure (OE). This enables anomaly detectors to generalize and detect unseen anomalies. In extensive experiments on natural language processing and small- and large-scale vision tasks, we find that Outlier Exposure significantly improves detection performance. We also observe that cutting-edge generative models trained on CIFAR-10 may assign higher likelihoods to SVHN images than to CIFAR-10 images; we use OE to mitigate this issue. We also analyze the flexibility and robustness of Outlier Exposure, and identify characteristics of the auxiliary dataset that improve performance.

In structure learning, the output is generally a structure that is used as supervision information to achieve good performance. Considering the interpretation of deep learning models has raised extended attention these years, it will be beneficial if we can learn an interpretable structure from deep learning models. In this paper, we focus on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) whose inner mechanism is still not clearly understood. We find that Finite State Automaton (FSA) that processes sequential data has more interpretable inner mechanism and can be learned from RNNs as the interpretable structure. We propose two methods to learn FSA from RNN based on two different clustering methods. We first give the graphical illustration of FSA for human beings to follow, which shows the interpretability. From the FSA's point of view, we then analyze how the performance of RNNs are affected by the number of gates, as well as the semantic meaning behind the transition of numerical hidden states. Our results suggest that RNNs with simple gated structure such as Minimal Gated Unit (MGU) is more desirable and the transitions in FSA leading to specific classification result are associated with corresponding words which are understandable by human beings.

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