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Influenced mixed moving average fields are a versatile modeling class for spatio-temporal data. However, their predictive distribution is not generally known. Under this modeling assumption, we define a novel spatio-temporal embedding and a theory-guided machine learning approach that employs a generalized Bayesian algorithm to make ensemble forecasts. We employ Lipschitz predictors and determine fixed-time and any-time PAC Bayesian bounds in the batch learning setting. Performing causal forecast is a highlight of our methodology as its potential application to data with spatial and temporal short and long-range dependence. We then test the performance of our learning methodology by using linear predictors and data sets simulated from a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Forecast combination involves using multiple forecasts to create a single, more accurate prediction. Recently, feature-based forecasting has been employed to either select the most appropriate forecasting models or to optimize the weights of their combination. In this paper, we present a multi-task optimization paradigm that focuses on solving both problems simultaneously and enriches current operational research approaches to forecasting. In essence, it incorporates an additional learning and optimization task into the standard feature-based forecasting approach, focusing on the identification of an optimal set of forecasting methods. During the training phase, an optimization model with linear constraints and quadratic objective function is employed to identify accurate and diverse methods for each time series. Moreover, within the training phase, a neural network is used to learn the behavior of that optimization model. Once training is completed the candidate set of methods is identified using the network. The proposed approach elicits the essential role of diversity in feature-based forecasting and highlights the interplay between model combination and model selection when optimizing forecasting ensembles. Experimental results on a large set of series from the M4 competition dataset show that our proposal enhances point forecast accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.

The randomly pivoted partial Cholesky algorithm (RPCholesky) computes a factorized rank-k approximation of an N x N positive-semidefinite (psd) matrix. RPCholesky requires only (k + 1) N entry evaluations and O(k^2 N) additional arithmetic operations, and it can be implemented with just a few lines of code. The method is particularly useful for approximating a kernel matrix. This paper offers a thorough new investigation of the empirical and theoretical behavior of this fundamental algorithm. For matrix approximation problems that arise in scientific machine learning, experiments show that RPCholesky matches or beats the performance of alternative algorithms. Moreover, RPCholesky provably returns low-rank approximations that are nearly optimal. The simplicity, effectiveness, and robustness of RPCholesky strongly support its use in scientific computing and machine learning applications.

We present a modification to RingCT protocol with stealth addresses that makes it compatible with Delegated Proof of Stake based consensus mechanisms called Delegated RingCT. Our scheme has two building blocks: a customised version of an Integrated Signature and Encryption scheme composed of a public key encryption scheme and two signature schemes (a digital signature and a linkable ring signature); and non-interactive zero knowledge proofs. We give a description of the scheme, security proofs and a prototype implementation whose benchmarking is discussed. Although Delegated RingCT doesn't have the same degree of anonymity as other RingCT constructions, we argue that the benefits that the compatibility with DPoS consensus mechanisms brings constitutes a reasonable trade-off for being able to develop an anonymous decentralised cryptocurrency that is faster and more scalable than existing ones.

We consider the estimation of generalized additive models using basis expansions coupled with Bayesian model selection. Although Bayesian model selection is an intuitively appealing tool for regression splines, its use has traditionally been limited to Gaussian additive regression because of the availability of a tractable form of the marginal model likelihood. We extend the method to encompass the exponential family of distributions using the Laplace approximation to the likelihood. Although the approach exhibits success with any Gaussian-type prior distribution, there remains a lack of consensus regarding the best prior distribution for nonparametric regression through model selection. We observe that the classical unit information prior distribution for variable selection may not be well-suited for nonparametric regression using basis expansions. Instead, our investigation reveals that mixtures of g-priors are more suitable. We consider various mixtures of g-priors to evaluate the performance in estimating generalized additive models. Furthermore, we conduct a comparative analysis of several priors for knots to identify the most practically effective strategy. Our extensive simulation studies demonstrate the superiority of model selection-based approaches over other Bayesian methods.

Semantic segmentation is a complex task that relies heavily on large amounts of annotated image data. However, annotating such data can be time-consuming and resource-intensive, especially in the medical domain. Active Learning (AL) is a popular approach that can help to reduce this burden by iteratively selecting images for annotation to improve the model performance. In the case of video data, it is important to consider the model uncertainty and the temporal nature of the sequences when selecting images for annotation. This work proposes a novel AL strategy for surgery video segmentation, COWAL, COrrelation-aWare Active Learning. Our approach involves projecting images into a latent space that has been fine-tuned using contrastive learning and then selecting a fixed number of representative images from local clusters of video frames. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach on two video datasets of surgical instruments and three real-world video datasets. The datasets and code will be made publicly available upon receiving necessary approvals.

We adopt the integral definition of the fractional Laplace operator and study an optimal control problem on Lipschitz domains that involves a fractional elliptic partial differential equation (PDE) as state equation and a control variable that enters the state equation as a coefficient; pointwise constraints on the control variable are considered as well. We establish the existence of optimal solutions and analyze first and, necessary and sufficient, second order optimality conditions. Regularity estimates for optimal variables are also analyzed. We develop two finite element discretization strategies: a semidiscrete scheme in which the control variable is not discretized, and a fully discrete scheme in which the control variable is discretized with piecewise constant functions. For both schemes, we analyze the convergence properties of discretizations and derive error estimates.

In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood (ML) is the key ingredient needed for model comparison and model averaging. Unfortunately, estimating MLs accurately is notoriously difficult, especially for models where posterior simulation is not possible. Recently, Christensen (2023) introduced the concept of permutation counting, which can accurately estimate MLs of models for exchangeable binary responses. Such data arise in a multitude of statistical problems, including binary classification, bioassay and sensitivity testing. Permutation counting is entirely likelihood-free and works for any model from which a random sample can be generated, including nonparametric models. Here we present perms, a package implementing permutation counting. As a result of extensive optimisation efforts, perms is computationally efficient and able to handle large data problems. It is available as both an R package and a Python library. A broad gallery of examples illustrating its usage is provided, which includes both standard parametric binary classification and novel applications of nonparametric models, such as changepoint analysis. We also cover the details of the implementation of perms and illustrate its computational speed via a simple simulation study.

We present Neural Spectral Methods, a technique to solve parametric Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), grounded in classical spectral methods. Our method uses orthogonal bases to learn PDE solutions as mappings between spectral coefficients. In contrast to current machine learning approaches which enforce PDE constraints by minimizing the numerical quadrature of the residuals in the spatiotemporal domain, we leverage Parseval's identity and introduce a new training strategy through a \textit{spectral loss}. Our spectral loss enables more efficient differentiation through the neural network, and substantially reduces training complexity. At inference time, the computational cost of our method remains constant, regardless of the spatiotemporal resolution of the domain. Our experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms previous machine learning approaches in terms of speed and accuracy by one to two orders of magnitude on multiple different problems. When compared to numerical solvers of the same accuracy, our method demonstrates a $10\times$ increase in performance speed.

Within the rapidly developing Internet of Things (IoT), numerous and diverse physical devices, Edge devices, Cloud infrastructure, and their quality of service requirements (QoS), need to be represented within a unified specification in order to enable rapid IoT application development, monitoring, and dynamic reconfiguration. But heterogeneities among different configuration knowledge representation models pose limitations for acquisition, discovery and curation of configuration knowledge for coordinated IoT applications. This paper proposes a unified data model to represent IoT resource configuration knowledge artifacts. It also proposes IoT-CANE (Context-Aware recommendatioN systEm) to facilitate incremental knowledge acquisition and declarative context driven knowledge recommendation.