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Modeling and prediction of epidemic spread are critical to assist in policy-making for mitigation. Therefore, we present a new method based on Gaussian Process Regression to model and predict epidemics, and it quantifies prediction confidence through variance and high probability error bounds. Gaussian Process Regression excels in using small datasets and providing uncertainty bounds, and both of these properties are critical in modeling and predicting epidemic spreading processes with limited data. However, the derivation of formal uncertainty bounds remains lacking when using Gaussian Process Regression in the setting of epidemics, which limits its usefulness in guiding mitigation efforts. Therefore, in this work, we develop a novel bound on the variance of the prediction that quantifies the impact of the epidemic data on the predictions we make. Further, we develop a high probability error bound on the prediction, and we quantify how the epidemic spread, the infection data, and the length of the prediction horizon all affect this error bound. We also show that the error stays below a certain threshold based on the length of the prediction horizon. To illustrate this framework, we leverage Gaussian Process Regression to model and predict COVID-19 using real-world infection data from the United Kingdom.

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Large language models (LLMs) have recently been used for sequential decision making in interactive environments. However, leveraging environment reward signals for continual LLM actor improvement is not straightforward. We propose Skill Set Optimization (SSO) for improving LLM actor performance through constructing and refining sets of transferable skills. SSO constructs skills by extracting common subtrajectories with high rewards and generating subgoals and instructions to represent each skill. These skills are provided to the LLM actor in-context to reinforce behaviors with high rewards. Then, SSO further refines the skill set by pruning skills that do not continue to result in high rewards. We evaluate our method in the classic videogame NetHack and the text environment ScienceWorld to demonstrate SSO's ability to optimize a set of skills and perform in-context policy improvement. SSO outperforms baselines by 40% in our custom NetHack task and outperforms the previous state-of-the-art in ScienceWorld by 35%.

In this work, we present a comprehensive exploration of finetuning Malaysian language models, specifically Llama2 and Mistral, on embedding tasks involving negative and positive pairs. We release two distinct models tailored for Semantic Similarity and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). For Semantic Similarity, our 600 million parameter Llama2 model outperforms OpenAI text-embedding-ada-002 across all recall@k metrics for b.cari.com.my, c.cari.com.my, Malay news, and Malaysian Twitter test sets. In the realm of RAG models, our approach proves competitive with OpenAI text-embedding-ada-002 in the Malaysian context. Notably, our 2 billion parameter Llama2 model achieves superior Recall@5, Recall@10 for the "Melayu" keyword research papers dataset and excels in Recall@3, Recall@5, and Recall@10 for the lom.agc.gov.my dataset. These findings underscore the effectiveness of our finetuning strategy and highlight the performance gains in both Semantic Similarity and RAG tasks. All models released at //huggingface.co/collections/mesolitica/malaysian-embedding-6523612bfe5881ad35f81b99

In this paper, we investigate the negative effect of activation functions on forward and backward propagation and how to counteract this effect. First, We examine how activation functions affect the forward and backward propagation of neural networks and derive a general form for gradient variance that extends the previous work in this area. We try to use mini-batch statistics to dynamically update the normalization factor to ensure the normalization property throughout the training process, rather than only accounting for the state of the neural network after weight initialization. Second, we propose ANAct, a method that normalizes activation functions to maintain consistent gradient variance across layers and demonstrate its effectiveness through experiments. We observe that the convergence rate is roughly related to the normalization property. We compare ANAct with several common activation functions on CNNs and residual networks and show that ANAct consistently improves their performance. For instance, normalized Swish achieves 1.4\% higher top-1 accuracy than vanilla Swish on ResNet50 with the Tiny ImageNet dataset and more than 1.2\% higher with CIFAR-100.

Recently, there have been significant advancements in Image Restoration based on CNN and transformer. However, the inherent characteristics of the Image Restoration task are often overlooked in many works. These works often focus on the basic block design and stack numerous basic blocks to the model, leading to redundant parameters and unnecessary computations and hindering the efficiency of the image restoration. In this paper, we propose a Lightweight Image Restoration network called LIR to efficiently remove degradation (blur, rain, noise, haze, etc.). A key component in LIR is the Efficient Adaptive Attention (EAA) Block, which is mainly composed of Adaptive Filters and Attention Blocks. It is capable of adaptively sharpening contours, removing degradation, and capturing global information in various image restoration scenes in an efficient and computation-friendly manner. In addition, through a simple structural design, LIR addresses the degradations existing in the local and global residual connections that are ignored by modern networks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our LIR achieves comparable performance to state-of-the-art networks on most benchmarks with fewer parameters and computations. It is worth noting that our LIR produces better visual results than state-of-the-art networks that are more in line with the human aesthetic.

Image classifiers often rely on convolutional neural networks (CNN) for their tasks, which are inherently more heavyweight than multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), which can be problematic in real-time applications. Additionally, many image classification models work on both RGB and grayscale datasets. Classifiers that operate solely on grayscale images are much less common. Grayscale image classification has diverse applications, including but not limited to medical image classification and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) automatic target recognition (ATR). Thus, we present a novel grayscale (single channel) image classification approach using a vectorized view of images. We exploit the lightweightness of MLPs by viewing images as a vector and reducing our problem setting to the grayscale image classification setting. We find that using a single graph convolutional layer batch-wise increases accuracy and reduces variance in the performance of our model. Moreover, we develop a customized accelerator on FPGA for the proposed model with several optimizations to improve its performance. Our experimental results on benchmark grayscale image datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, achieving vastly lower latency (up to 16$\times$ less) and competitive or leading performance compared to other state-of-the-art image classification models on various domain-specific grayscale image classification datasets.

Probability predictions are essential to inform decision making across many fields. Ideally, probability predictions are (i) well calibrated, (ii) accurate, and (iii) bold, i.e., spread out enough to be informative for decision making. However, there is a fundamental tension between calibration and boldness, since calibration metrics can be high when predictions are overly cautious, i.e., non-bold. The purpose of this work is to develop a Bayesian model selection-based approach to assess calibration, and a strategy for boldness-recalibration that enables practitioners to responsibly embolden predictions subject to their required level of calibration. Specifically, we allow the user to pre-specify their desired posterior probability of calibration, then maximally embolden predictions subject to this constraint. We demonstrate the method with a case study on hockey home team win probabilities and then verify the performance of our procedures via simulation. We find that very slight relaxation of calibration probability (e.g., from 0.99 to 0.95) can often substantially embolden predictions when they are well calibrated and accurate (e.g., widening hockey predictions range from .26-.78 to .10-.91).

Image registration is a critical component in the applications of various medical image analyses. In recent years, there has been a tremendous surge in the development of deep learning (DL)-based medical image registration models. This paper provides a comprehensive review of medical image registration. Firstly, a discussion is provided for supervised registration categories, for example, fully supervised, dual supervised, and weakly supervised registration. Next, similarity-based as well as generative adversarial network (GAN)-based registration are presented as part of unsupervised registration. Deep iterative registration is then described with emphasis on deep similarity-based and reinforcement learning-based registration. Moreover, the application areas of medical image registration are reviewed. This review focuses on monomodal and multimodal registration and associated imaging, for instance, X-ray, CT scan, ultrasound, and MRI. The existing challenges are highlighted in this review, where it is shown that a major challenge is the absence of a training dataset with known transformations. Finally, a discussion is provided on the promising future research areas in the field of DL-based medical image registration.

Besides entity-centric knowledge, usually organized as Knowledge Graph (KG), events are also an essential kind of knowledge in the world, which trigger the spring up of event-centric knowledge representation form like Event KG (EKG). It plays an increasingly important role in many machine learning and artificial intelligence applications, such as intelligent search, question-answering, recommendation, and text generation. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of EKG from history, ontology, instance, and application views. Specifically, to characterize EKG thoroughly, we focus on its history, definitions, schema induction, acquisition, related representative graphs/systems, and applications. The development processes and trends are studied therein. We further summarize perspective directions to facilitate future research on EKG.

Interpretability in machine learning (ML) is crucial for high stakes decisions and troubleshooting. In this work, we provide fundamental principles for interpretable ML, and dispel common misunderstandings that dilute the importance of this crucial topic. We also identify 10 technical challenge areas in interpretable machine learning and provide history and background on each problem. Some of these problems are classically important, and some are recent problems that have arisen in the last few years. These problems are: (1) Optimizing sparse logical models such as decision trees; (2) Optimization of scoring systems; (3) Placing constraints into generalized additive models to encourage sparsity and better interpretability; (4) Modern case-based reasoning, including neural networks and matching for causal inference; (5) Complete supervised disentanglement of neural networks; (6) Complete or even partial unsupervised disentanglement of neural networks; (7) Dimensionality reduction for data visualization; (8) Machine learning models that can incorporate physics and other generative or causal constraints; (9) Characterization of the "Rashomon set" of good models; and (10) Interpretable reinforcement learning. This survey is suitable as a starting point for statisticians and computer scientists interested in working in interpretable machine learning.

We study the problem of learning to reason in large scale knowledge graphs (KGs). More specifically, we describe a novel reinforcement learning framework for learning multi-hop relational paths: we use a policy-based agent with continuous states based on knowledge graph embeddings, which reasons in a KG vector space by sampling the most promising relation to extend its path. In contrast to prior work, our approach includes a reward function that takes the accuracy, diversity, and efficiency into consideration. Experimentally, we show that our proposed method outperforms a path-ranking based algorithm and knowledge graph embedding methods on Freebase and Never-Ending Language Learning datasets.

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