In this paper, we study statistical inference on the similarity/distance between two time-series under uncertain environment by considering a statistical hypothesis test on the distance obtained from Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm. The sampling distribution of the DTW distance is too complicated to derive because it is obtained based on the solution of a complicated algorithm. To circumvent this difficulty, we propose to employ a conditional sampling distribution for the inference, which enables us to derive an exact (non-asymptotic) inference method on the DTW distance. Besides, we also develop a novel computational method to compute the conditional sampling distribution. To our knowledge, this is the first method that can provide valid $p$-value to quantify the statistical significance of the DTW distance, which is helpful for high-stake decision making. We evaluate the performance of the proposed inference method on both synthetic and real-world datasets.
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This paper considers the problem of inference in cluster randomized experiments when cluster sizes are non-ignorable. Here, by a cluster randomized experiment, we mean one in which treatment is assigned at the level of the cluster; by non-ignorable cluster sizes we mean that "large" clusters and "small" clusters may be heterogeneous, and, in particular, the effects of the treatment may vary across clusters of differing sizes. In order to permit this sort of flexibility, we consider a sampling framework in which cluster sizes themselves are random. In this way, our analysis departs from earlier analyses of cluster randomized experiments in which cluster sizes are treated as non-random. We distinguish between two different parameters of interest: the equally-weighted cluster-level average treatment effect, and the size-weighted cluster-level average treatment effect. For each parameter, we provide methods for inference in an asymptotic framework where the number of clusters tends to infinity and treatment is assigned using simple random sampling. We additionally permit the experimenter to sample only a subset of the units within each cluster rather than the entire cluster and demonstrate the implications of such sampling for some commonly used estimators. A small simulation study shows the practical relevance of our theoretical results.
Scarcity of labeled histopathology data limits the applicability of deep learning methods to under-profiled cancer types and labels. Transfer learning allows researchers to overcome the limitations of small datasets by pre-training machine learning models on larger datasets \emph{similar} to the small target dataset. However, similarity between datasets is often determined heuristically. In this paper, we propose a principled notion of distance between histopathology datasets based on a hierarchical generalization of optimal transport distances. Our method does not require any training, is agnostic to model type, and preserves much of the hierarchical structure in histopathology datasets imposed by tiling. We apply our method to H\&E stained slides from The Cancer Genome Atlas from six different cancer types. We show that our method outperforms a baseline distance in a cancer-type prediction task. Our results also show that our optimal transport distance predicts difficulty of transferability in a tumor vs.~normal prediction setting.
Computing a maximum independent set (MaxIS) is a fundamental NP-hard problem in graph theory, which has important applications in a wide spectrum of fields. Since graphs in many applications are changing frequently over time, the problem of maintaining a MaxIS over dynamic graphs has attracted increasing attention over the past few years. Due to the intractability of maintaining an exact MaxIS, this paper aims to develop efficient algorithms that can maintain an approximate MaxIS with an accuracy guarantee theoretically. In particular, we propose a framework that maintains a $(\frac{\Delta}{2} + 1)$-approximate MaxIS over dynamic graphs and prove that it achieves a constant approximation ratio in many real-world networks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first non-trivial approximability result for the dynamic MaxIS problem. Following the framework, we implement an efficient linear-time dynamic algorithm and a more effective dynamic algorithm with near-linear expected time complexity. Our thorough experiments over real and synthetic graphs demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithms, especially when the graph is highly dynamic.
A faster reduction of the dynamic time warping distance to the longest increasing subsequence length
The similarity between a pair of time series, i.e., sequences of indexed values in time order, is often estimated by the dynamic time warping (DTW) distance, instead of any in the well-studied family of measures including the longest common subsequence (LCS) length and the edit distance. Although it may seem as if the DTW and the LCS(-like) measures are essentially different, we reveal that the DTW distance can be represented by the longest increasing subsequence (LIS) length of a sequence of integers, which is the LCS length between the integer sequence and itself sorted. For a given pair of time series of length $n$ such that the dissimilarity between any elements is an integer between zero and $c$, we propose an integer sequence that represents any substring-substring DTW distance as its band-substring LIS length. The length of the produced integer sequence is $O(c n^2)$, which can be translated to $O(n^2)$ for constant dissimilarity functions. To demonstrate that techniques developed under the LCS(-like) measures are directly applicable to analysis of time series via our reduction of DTW to LIS, we present time-efficient algorithms for DTW-related problems utilizing the semi-local sequence comparison technique developed for LCS-related problems.
Computing a dense subgraph is a fundamental problem in graph mining, with a diverse set of applications ranging from electronic commerce to community detection in social networks. In many of these applications, the underlying context is better modelled as a weighted hypergraph that keeps evolving with time. This motivates the problem of maintaining the densest subhypergraph of a weighted hypergraph in a {\em dynamic setting}, where the input keeps changing via a sequence of updates (hyperedge insertions/deletions). Previously, the only known algorithm for this problem was due to Hu et al. [HWC17]. This algorithm worked only on unweighted hypergraphs, and had an approximation ratio of $(1+\epsilon)r^2$ and an update time of $O(\text{poly} (r, \log n))$, where $r$ denotes the maximum rank of the input across all the updates. We obtain a new algorithm for this problem, which works even when the input hypergraph is weighted. Our algorithm has a significantly improved (near-optimal) approximation ratio of $(1+\epsilon)$ that is independent of $r$, and a similar update time of $O(\text{poly} (r, \log n))$. It is the first $(1+\epsilon)$-approximation algorithm even for the special case of weighted simple graphs. To complement our theoretical analysis, we perform experiments with our dynamic algorithm on large-scale, real-world data-sets. Our algorithm significantly outperforms the state of the art [HWC17] both in terms of accuracy and efficiency.
In this work, we study the transfer learning problem under high-dimensional generalized linear models (GLMs), which aim to improve the fit on target data by borrowing information from useful source data. Given which sources to transfer, we propose a transfer learning algorithm on GLM, and derive its $\ell_1/\ell_2$-estimation error bounds as well as a bound for a prediction error measure. The theoretical analysis shows that when the target and source are sufficiently close to each other, these bounds could be improved over those of the classical penalized estimator using only target data under mild conditions. When we don't know which sources to transfer, an algorithm-free transferable source detection approach is introduced to detect informative sources. The detection consistency is proved under the high-dimensional GLM transfer learning setting. We also propose an algorithm to construct confidence intervals of each coefficient component, and the corresponding theories are provided. Extensive simulations and a real-data experiment verify the effectiveness of our algorithms. We implement the proposed GLM transfer learning algorithms in a new R package glmtrans, which is available on CRAN.
Kernel smooth is the most fundamental technique for data density and regression estimation. However, time-consuming is the biggest obstacle for the application that the direct evaluation of kernel smooth for $N$ samples needs ${O}\left( {{N}^{2}} \right)$ operations. People have developed fast smooth algorithms using the idea of binning with FFT. Unfortunately, the accuracy is not controllable, and the implementation for multivariable and its bandwidth selection for the fast method is not available. Hence, we introduce a new MATLAB toolbox for fast multivariate kernel regression with the idea of non-uniform FFT (NUFFT), which implemented the algorithm for $M$ gridding points with ${O}\left( N+M\log M \right)$ complexity and accuracy controllability. The bandwidth selection problem utilizes the Fast Monte-Carlo algorithm to estimate the degree of freedom (DF), saving enormous cross-validation time even better when data share the same grid space for multiple regression. Up to now, this is the first toolbox for fast-binning high-dimensional kernel regression. Moreover, the estimation for local polynomial regression, the conditional variance for the heteroscedastic model, and the complex-valued datasets are also implemented in this toolbox. The performance is demonstrated with simulations and an application on the quantitive EEG.
Low-rank matrix estimation under heavy-tailed noise is challenging, both computationally and statistically. Convex approaches have been proven statistically optimal but suffer from high computational costs, especially since robust loss functions are usually non-smooth. More recently, computationally fast non-convex approaches via sub-gradient descent are proposed, which, unfortunately, fail to deliver a statistically consistent estimator even under sub-Gaussian noise. In this paper, we introduce a novel Riemannian sub-gradient (RsGrad) algorithm which is not only computationally efficient with linear convergence but also is statistically optimal, be the noise Gaussian or heavy-tailed. Convergence theory is established for a general framework and specific applications to absolute loss, Huber loss, and quantile loss are investigated. Compared with existing non-convex methods, ours reveals a surprising phenomenon of dual-phase convergence. In phase one, RsGrad behaves as in a typical non-smooth optimization that requires gradually decaying stepsizes. However, phase one only delivers a statistically sub-optimal estimator which is already observed in the existing literature. Interestingly, during phase two, RsGrad converges linearly as if minimizing a smooth and strongly convex objective function and thus a constant stepsize suffices. Underlying the phase-two convergence is the smoothing effect of random noise to the non-smooth robust losses in an area close but not too close to the truth. Lastly, RsGrad is applicable for low-rank tensor estimation under heavy-tailed noise where a statistically optimal rate is attainable with the same phenomenon of dual-phase convergence, and a novel shrinkage-based second-order moment method is guaranteed to deliver a warm initialization. Numerical simulations confirm our theoretical discovery and showcase the superiority of RsGrad over prior methods.
Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.
Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.
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