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Domain adaptation arises as an important problem in statistical learning theory when the data-generating processes differ between training and test samples, respectively called source and target domains. Recent theoretical advances show that the success of domain adaptation algorithms heavily relies on their ability to minimize the divergence between the probability distributions of the source and target domains. However, minimizing this divergence cannot be done independently of the minimization of other key ingredients such as the source risk or the combined error of the ideal joint hypothesis. The trade-off between these terms is often ensured by algorithmic solutions that remain implicit and not directly reflected by the theoretical guarantees. To get to the bottom of this issue, we propose in this paper a new theoretical framework for domain adaptation through hierarchical optimal transport. This framework provides more explicit generalization bounds and allows us to consider the natural hierarchical organization of samples in both domains into classes or clusters. Additionally, we provide a new divergence measure between the source and target domains called Hierarchical Wasserstein distance that indicates under mild assumptions, which structures have to be aligned to lead to a successful adaptation.

Reliability-oriented sensitivity analysis aims at combining both reliability and sensitivity analyses by quantifying the influence of each input variable of a numerical model on a quantity of interest related to its failure. In particular, target sensitivity analysis focuses on the occurrence of the failure, and more precisely aims to determine which inputs are more likely to lead to the failure of the system. The Shapley effects are quantitative global sensitivity indices which are able to deal with correlated input variables. They have been recently adapted to the target sensitivity analysis framework. In this article, we investigate two importance-sampling-based estimation schemes of these indices which are more efficient than the existing ones when the failure probability is small. Moreover, an extension to the case where only an i.i.d. input/output N-sample distributed according to the importance sampling auxiliary distribution is proposed. This extension allows to estimate the Shapley effects only with a data set distributed according to the importance sampling auxiliary distribution stemming from a reliability analysis without additional calls to the numerical model. In addition, we study theoretically the absence of bias of some estimators as well as the benefit of importance sampling. We also provide numerical guidelines and finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed methods.

More than twenty years after its introduction, Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) remains one of the most effective methods for marginal likelihood estimation. It relies on a sequence of distributions interpolating between a tractable initial distribution and the target distribution of interest which we simulate from approximately using a non-homogeneous Markov chain. To obtain an importance sampling estimate of the marginal likelihood, AIS introduces an extended target distribution to reweight the Markov chain proposal. While much effort has been devoted to improving the proposal distribution used by AIS, an underappreciated issue is that AIS uses a convenient but suboptimal extended target distribution. We here leverage recent progress in score-based generative modeling (SGM) to approximate the optimal extended target distribution minimizing the variance of the marginal likelihood estimate for AIS proposals corresponding to the discretization of Langevin and Hamiltonian dynamics. We demonstrate these novel, differentiable, AIS procedures on a number of synthetic benchmark distributions and variational auto-encoders.

Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) is mainly studied in a setting where the training and the testing environments are similar. But in many practical applications, these environments may differ. For instance, in control systems, the robot(s) on which a policy is learned might differ from the robot(s) on which a policy will run. It can be caused by different internal factors (e.g., calibration issues, system attrition, defective modules) or also by external changes (e.g., weather conditions). There is a need to develop RL methods that generalize well to variations of the training conditions. In this article, we consider the simplest yet hard to tackle generalization setting where the test environment is unknown at train time, forcing the agent to adapt to the system's new dynamics. This online adaptation process can be computationally expensive (e.g., fine-tuning) and cannot rely on meta-RL techniques since there is just a single train environment. To do so, we propose an approach where we learn a subspace of policies within the parameter space. This subspace contains an infinite number of policies that are trained to solve the training environment while having different parameter values. As a consequence, two policies in that subspace process information differently and exhibit different behaviors when facing variations of the train environment. Our experiments carried out over a large variety of benchmarks compare our approach with baselines, including diversity-based methods. In comparison, our approach is simple to tune, does not need any extra component (e.g., discriminator) and learns policies able to gather a high reward on unseen environments.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have become a kind of attractive machine learning method for obtaining solutions of partial differential equations (PDEs). Training PINNs can be seen as a semi-supervised learning task, in which only exact values of initial and boundary points can be obtained in solving forward problems, and in the whole spatio-temporal domain collocation points are sampled without exact labels, which brings training difficulties. Thus the selection of collocation points and sampling methods are quite crucial in training PINNs. Existing sampling methods include fixed and dynamic types, and in the more popular latter one, sampling is usually controlled by PDE residual loss. We point out that it is not sufficient to only consider the residual loss in adaptive sampling and sampling should obey temporal causality. We further introduce temporal causality into adaptive sampling and propose a novel adaptive causal sampling method to improve the performance and efficiency of PINNs. Numerical experiments of several PDEs with high-order derivatives and strong nonlinearity, including Cahn Hilliard and KdV equations, show that the proposed sampling method can improve the performance of PINNs with few collocation points. We demonstrate that by utilizing such a relatively simple sampling method, prediction performance can be improved up to two orders of magnitude compared with state-of-the-art results with almost no extra computation cost, especially when points are limited.

The Bayesian paradigm provides a rigorous framework for estimating the whole probability distribution over unknown parameters, but due to high computational costs, its online application can be difficult. We propose the Adaptive Recursive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ARMCMC) method, which calculates the complete probability density function of model parameters while alleviating the drawbacks of traditional online methods. These flaws include being limited to Gaussian noise, being solely applicable to linear in the parameters (LIP) systems, and having persisting excitation requirements (PE). A variable jump distribution based on a temporal forgetting factor (TFF) is proposed in ARMCMC. The TFF can be utilized in many dynamical systems as an effective way to adaptively present the forgetting factor instead of a constant hyperparameter. The particular jump distribution has tailored towards hybrid/multi-modal systems that enables inferences among modes by providing a trade-off between exploitation and exploration. These trade-off are adjusted based on parameter evolution rate. In comparison to traditional MCMC techniques, we show that ARMCMC requires fewer samples to obtain the same accuracy and reliability. We show our method on two challenging benchmarks: parameter estimation in a soft bending actuator and the Hunt-Crossley dynamic model. We also compare our method with recursive least squares and the particle filter, and show that our technique has significantly more accurate point estimates as well as a decrease in tracking error of the value of interest.

Simultaneously identifying contributory variables and controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) in high-dimensional data is an important statistical problem. In this paper, we propose a novel model-free variable selection procedure in sufficient dimension reduction via data splitting technique. The variable selection problem is first connected with a least square procedure with several response transformations. We construct a series of statistics with global symmetry property and then utilize the symmetry to derive a data-driven threshold to achieve error rate control. This method can achieve finite-sample and asymptotic FDR control under some mild conditions. Numerical experiments indicate that our procedure has satisfactory FDR control and higher power compared with existing methods.

This study addresses the problem of selecting dynamically, at each time instance, the ``optimal'' p-norm to combat outliers in linear adaptive filtering without any knowledge on the potentially time-varying probability distribution function of the outliers. To this end, an online and data-driven framework is designed via kernel-based reinforcement learning (KBRL). Novel Bellman mappings on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) are introduced that need no knowledge on transition probabilities of Markov decision processes, and are nonexpansive with respect to the underlying Hilbertian norm. An approximate policy-iteration framework is finally offered via the introduction of a finite-dimensional affine superset of the fixed-point set of the proposed Bellman mappings. The well-known ``curse of dimensionality'' in RKHSs is addressed by building a basis of vectors via an approximate linear dependency criterion. Numerical tests on synthetic data demonstrate that the proposed framework selects always the ``optimal'' p-norm for the outlier scenario at hand, outperforming at the same time several non-RL and KBRL schemes.

Many real-world problems can be naturally described by mathematical formulas. The task of finding formulas from a set of observed inputs and outputs is called symbolic regression. Recently, neural networks have been applied to symbolic regression, among which the transformer-based ones seem to be the most promising. After training the transformer on a large number of formulas (in the order of days), the actual inference, i.e., finding a formula for new, unseen data, is very fast (in the order of seconds). This is considerably faster than state-of-the-art evolutionary methods. The main drawback of transformers is that they generate formulas without numerical constants, which have to be optimized separately, so yielding suboptimal results. We propose a transformer-based approach called SymFormer, which predicts the formula by outputting the individual symbols and the corresponding constants simultaneously. This leads to better performance in terms of fitting the available data. In addition, the constants provided by SymFormer serve as a good starting point for subsequent tuning via gradient descent to further improve the performance. We show on a set of benchmarks that SymFormer outperforms two state-of-the-art methods while having faster inference.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.