Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic record keeping has brought attention to the problem of evaluating decisions based on non-experimental observational data. This is the setting of this work. In particular, we study estimation of individual-level causal effects, such as a single patient's response to alternative medication, from recorded contexts, decisions and outcomes. We give generalization bounds on the error in estimated effects based on distance measures between groups receiving different treatments, allowing for sample re-weighting. We provide conditions under which our bound is tight and show how it relates to results for unsupervised domain adaptation. Led by our theoretical results, we devise representation learning algorithms that minimize our bound, by regularizing the representation's induced treatment group distance, and encourage sharing of information between treatment groups. We extend these algorithms to simultaneously learn a weighted representation to further reduce treatment group distances. Finally, an experimental evaluation on real and synthetic data shows the value of our proposed representation architecture and regularization scheme.
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The representations of neural networks are often compared to those of biological systems by performing regression between the neural network responses and those measured from biological systems. Many different state-of-the-art deep neural networks yield similar neural predictions, but it remains unclear how to differentiate among models that perform equally well at predicting neural responses. To gain insight into this, we use a recent theoretical framework that relates the generalization error from regression to the spectral bias of the model activations and the alignment of the neural responses onto the learnable subspace of the model. We extend this theory to the case of regression between model activations and neural responses, and define geometrical properties describing the error embedding geometry. We test a large number of deep neural networks that predict visual cortical activity and show that there are multiple types of geometries that result in low neural prediction error as measured via regression. The work demonstrates that carefully decomposing representational metrics can provide interpretability of how models are capturing neural activity and points the way towards improved models of neural activity.
Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a discipline focused on predicting the point at which systems or components will cease to perform as intended, typically measured as Remaining Useful Life (RUL). RUL serves as a vital decision-making tool for contingency planning, guiding the timing and nature of system maintenance. Historically, PHM has primarily been applied to hardware systems, with its application to software only recently explored. In a recent study we introduced a methodology and demonstrated how changes in software can impact the RUL of software. However, in practical software development, real-time performance is also influenced by various environmental attributes, including operating systems, clock speed, processor performance, RAM, machine core count and others. This research extends the analysis to assess how changes in environmental attributes, such as operating system and clock speed, affect RUL estimation in software. Findings are rigorously validated using real performance data from controlled test beds and compared with predictive model-generated data. Statistical validation, including regression analysis, supports the credibility of the results. The controlled test bed environment replicates and validates faults from real applications, ensuring a standardized assessment platform. This exploration yields actionable knowledge for software maintenance and optimization strategies, addressing a significant gap in the field of software health management.
Neural networks have become a prominent approach to solve inverse problems in recent years. While a plethora of such methods was developed to solve inverse problems empirically, we are still lacking clear theoretical guarantees for these methods. On the other hand, many works proved convergence to optimal solutions of neural networks in a more general setting using overparametrization as a way to control the Neural Tangent Kernel. In this work we investigate how to bridge these two worlds and we provide deterministic convergence and recovery guarantees for the class of unsupervised feedforward multilayer neural networks trained to solve inverse problems. We also derive overparametrization bounds under which a two-layers Deep Inverse Prior network with smooth activation function will benefit from our guarantees.
Self-supervised representation learning has seen remarkable progress in the last few years, with some of the recent methods being able to learn useful image representations without labels. These methods are trained using backpropagation, the de facto standard. Recently, Geoffrey Hinton proposed the forward-forward algorithm as an alternative training method. It utilizes two forward passes and a separate loss function for each layer to train the network without backpropagation. In this study, for the first time, we study the performance of forward-forward vs. backpropagation for self-supervised representation learning and provide insights into the learned representation spaces. Our benchmark employs four standard datasets, namely MNIST, F-MNIST, SVHN and CIFAR-10, and three commonly used self-supervised representation learning techniques, namely rotation, flip and jigsaw. Our main finding is that while the forward-forward algorithm performs comparably to backpropagation during (self-)supervised training, the transfer performance is significantly lagging behind in all the studied settings. This may be caused by a combination of factors, including having a loss function for each layer and the way the supervised training is realized in the forward-forward paradigm. In comparison to backpropagation, the forward-forward algorithm focuses more on the boundaries and drops part of the information unnecessary for making decisions which harms the representation learning goal. Further investigation and research are necessary to stabilize the forward-forward strategy for self-supervised learning, to work beyond the datasets and configurations demonstrated by Geoffrey Hinton.
Realistic reservoir simulation is known to be prohibitively expensive in terms of computation time when increasing the accuracy of the simulation or by enlarging the model grid size. One method to address this issue is to parallelize the computation by dividing the model in several partitions and using multiple CPUs to compute the result using techniques such as MPI and multi-threading. Alternatively, GPUs are also a good candidate to accelerate the computation due to their massively parallel architecture that allows many floating point operations per second to be performed. The numerical iterative solver takes thus the most computational time and is challenging to solve efficiently due to the dependencies that exist in the model between cells. In this work, we evaluate the OPM Flow simulator and compare several state-of-the-art GPU solver libraries as well as custom developed solutions for a BiCGStab solver using an ILU0 preconditioner and benchmark their performance against the default DUNE library implementation running on multiple CPU processors using MPI. The evaluated GPU software libraries include a manual linear solver in OpenCL and the integration of several third party sparse linear algebra libraries, such as cuSparse, rocSparse, and amgcl. To perform our bench-marking, we use small, medium, and large use cases, starting with the public test case NORNE that includes approximately 50k active cells and ending with a large model that includes approximately 1 million active cells. We find that a GPU can accelerate a single dual-threaded MPI process up to 5.6 times, and that it can compare with around 8 dual-threaded MPI processes.
Explainable recommender systems (RS) have traditionally followed a one-size-fits-all approach, delivering the same explanation level of detail to each user, without considering their individual needs and goals. Further, explanations in RS have so far been presented mostly in a static and non-interactive manner. To fill these research gaps, we aim in this paper to adopt a user-centered, interactive explanation model that provides explanations with different levels of detail and empowers users to interact with, control, and personalize the explanations based on their needs and preferences. We followed a user-centered approach to design interactive explanations with three levels of detail (basic, intermediate, and advanced) and implemented them in the transparent Recommendation and Interest Modeling Application (RIMA). We conducted a qualitative user study (N=14) to investigate the impact of providing interactive explanations with varying level of details on the users' perception of the explainable RS. Our study showed qualitative evidence that fostering interaction and giving users control in deciding which explanation they would like to see can meet the demands of users with different needs, preferences, and goals, and consequently can have positive effects on different crucial aspects in explainable recommendation, including transparency, trust, satisfaction, and user experience.
The problem of predicting the training time of machine learning (ML) models has become extremely relevant in the scientific community. Being able to predict a priori the training time of an ML model would enable the automatic selection of the best model both in terms of energy efficiency and in terms of performance in the context of, for instance, MLOps architectures. In this paper, we present the work we are conducting towards this direction. In particular, we present an extensive empirical study of the Full Parameter Time Complexity (FPTC) approach by Zheng et al., which is, to the best of our knowledge, the only approach formalizing the training time of ML models as a function of both dataset's and model's parameters. We study the formulations proposed for the Logistic Regression and Random Forest classifiers, and we highlight the main strengths and weaknesses of the approach. Finally, we observe how, from the conducted study, the prediction of training time is strictly related to the context (i.e., the involved dataset) and how the FPTC approach is not generalizable.
Understanding causality helps to structure interventions to achieve specific goals and enables predictions under interventions. With the growing importance of learning causal relationships, causal discovery tasks have transitioned from using traditional methods to infer potential causal structures from observational data to the field of pattern recognition involved in deep learning. The rapid accumulation of massive data promotes the emergence of causal search methods with brilliant scalability. Existing summaries of causal discovery methods mainly focus on traditional methods based on constraints, scores and FCMs, there is a lack of perfect sorting and elaboration for deep learning-based methods, also lacking some considers and exploration of causal discovery methods from the perspective of variable paradigms. Therefore, we divide the possible causal discovery tasks into three types according to the variable paradigm and give the definitions of the three tasks respectively, define and instantiate the relevant datasets for each task and the final causal model constructed at the same time, then reviews the main existing causal discovery methods for different tasks. Finally, we propose some roadmaps from different perspectives for the current research gaps in the field of causal discovery and point out future research directions.
Deep neural networks have revolutionized many machine learning tasks in power systems, ranging from pattern recognition to signal processing. The data in these tasks is typically represented in Euclidean domains. Nevertheless, there is an increasing number of applications in power systems, where data are collected from non-Euclidean domains and represented as the graph-structured data with high dimensional features and interdependency among nodes. The complexity of graph-structured data has brought significant challenges to the existing deep neural networks defined in Euclidean domains. Recently, many studies on extending deep neural networks for graph-structured data in power systems have emerged. In this paper, a comprehensive overview of graph neural networks (GNNs) in power systems is proposed. Specifically, several classical paradigms of GNNs structures (e.g., graph convolutional networks, graph recurrent neural networks, graph attention networks, graph generative networks, spatial-temporal graph convolutional networks, and hybrid forms of GNNs) are summarized, and key applications in power systems such as fault diagnosis, power prediction, power flow calculation, and data generation are reviewed in detail. Furthermore, main issues and some research trends about the applications of GNNs in power systems are discussed.
The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.
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