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We consider an analysis of variance type problem, where the sample observations are random elements in an infinite dimensional space. This scenario covers the case, where the observations are random functions. For such a problem, we propose a test based on spatial signs. We develop an asymptotic implementation as well as a bootstrap implementation and a permutation implementation of this test and investigate their size and power properties. We compare the performance of our test with that of several mean based tests of analysis of variance for functional data studied in the literature. Interestingly, our test not only outperforms the mean based tests in several non-Gaussian models with heavy tails or skewed distributions, but in some Gaussian models also. Further, we also compare the performance of our test with the mean based tests in several models involving contaminated probability distributions. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of these tests in three real datasets: a Canadian weather dataset, a spectrometric dataset on chemical analysis of meat samples and a dataset on orthotic measurements on volunteers.

In this paper, we focus on solving a distributed convex aggregative optimization problem in a network, where each agent has its own cost function which depends not only on its own decision variables but also on the aggregated function of all agents' decision variables. The decision variable is constrained within a feasible set. In order to minimize the sum of the cost functions when each agent only knows its local cost function, we propose a distributed Frank-Wolfe algorithm based on gradient tracking for the aggregative optimization problem where each node maintains two estimates, namely an estimate of the sum of agents' decision variable and an estimate of the gradient of global function. The algorithm is projection-free, but only involves solving a linear optimization to get a search direction at each step. We show the convergence of the proposed algorithm for convex and smooth objective functions over a time-varying network. Finally, we demonstrate the convergence and computational efficiency of the proposed algorithm via numerical simulations.

We study policy gradient (PG) for reinforcement learning in continuous time and space under the regularized exploratory formulation developed by Wang et al. (2020). We represent the gradient of the value function with respect to a given parameterized stochastic policy as the expected integration of an auxiliary running reward function that can be evaluated using samples and the current value function. This effectively turns PG into a policy evaluation (PE) problem, enabling us to apply the martingale approach recently developed by Jia and Zhou (2021) for PE to solve our PG problem. Based on this analysis, we propose two types of the actor-critic algorithms for RL, where we learn and update value functions and policies simultaneously and alternatingly. The first type is based directly on the aforementioned representation which involves future trajectories and hence is offline. The second type, designed for online learning, employs the first-order condition of the policy gradient and turns it into martingale orthogonality conditions. These conditions are then incorporated using stochastic approximation when updating policies. Finally, we demonstrate the algorithms by simulations in two concrete examples.

We are motivated by the problem of learning policies for robotic systems with rich sensory inputs (e.g., vision) in a manner that allows us to guarantee generalization to environments unseen during training. We provide a framework for providing such generalization guarantees by leveraging a finite dataset of real-world environments in combination with a (potentially inaccurate) generative model of environments. The key idea behind our approach is to utilize the generative model in order to implicitly specify a prior over policies. This prior is updated using the real-world dataset of environments by minimizing an upper bound on the expected cost across novel environments derived via Probably Approximately Correct (PAC)-Bayes generalization theory. We demonstrate our approach on two simulated systems with nonlinear/hybrid dynamics and rich sensing modalities: (i) quadrotor navigation with an onboard vision sensor, and (ii) grasping objects using a depth sensor. Comparisons with prior work demonstrate the ability of our approach to obtain stronger generalization guarantees by utilizing generative models. We also present hardware experiments for validating our bounds for the grasping task.

While neural networks have been remarkably successful in a wide array of applications, implementing them in resource-constrained hardware remains an area of intense research. By replacing the weights of a neural network with quantized (e.g., 4-bit, or binary) counterparts, massive savings in computation cost, memory, and power consumption are attained. To that end, we generalize a post-training neural-network quantization method, GPFQ, that is based on a greedy path-following mechanism. Among other things, we propose modifications to promote sparsity of the weights, and rigorously analyze the associated error. Additionally, our error analysis expands the results of previous work on GPFQ to handle general quantization alphabets, showing that for quantizing a single-layer network, the relative square error essentially decays linearly in the number of weights -- i.e., level of over-parametrization. Our result holds across a range of input distributions and for both fully-connected and convolutional architectures thereby also extending previous results. To empirically evaluate the method, we quantize several common architectures with few bits per weight, and test them on ImageNet, showing only minor loss of accuracy compared to unquantized models. We also demonstrate that standard modifications, such as bias correction and mixed precision quantization, further improve accuracy.

Deep learning plays a more and more important role in our daily life due to its competitive performance in multiple industrial application domains. As the core of DL-enabled systems, deep neural networks automatically learn knowledge from carefully collected and organized training data to gain the ability to predict the label of unseen data. Similar to the traditional software systems that need to be comprehensively tested, DNNs also need to be carefully evaluated to make sure the quality of the trained model meets the demand. In practice, the de facto standard to assess the quality of DNNs in industry is to check their performance (accuracy) on a collected set of labeled test data. However, preparing such labeled data is often not easy partly because of the huge labeling effort, i.e., data labeling is labor-intensive, especially with the massive new incoming unlabeled data every day. Recent studies show that test selection for DNN is a promising direction that tackles this issue by selecting minimal representative data to label and using these data to assess the model. However, it still requires human effort and cannot be automatic. In this paper, we propose a novel technique, named Aries, that can estimate the performance of DNNs on new unlabeled data using only the information obtained from the original test data. The key insight behind our technique is that the model should have similar prediction accuracy on the data which have similar distances to the decision boundary. We performed a large-scale evaluation of our technique on 13 types of data transformation methods. The results demonstrate the usefulness of our technique that the estimated accuracy by Aries is only 0.03% -- 2.60% (on average 0.61%) off the true accuracy. Besides, Aries also outperforms the state-of-the-art selection-labeling-based methods in most (96 out of 128) cases.

We propose \textbf{JAWS}, a series of wrapper methods for distribution-free uncertainty quantification tasks under covariate shift, centered on our core method \textbf{JAW}, the \textbf{JA}ckknife+ \textbf{W}eighted with likelihood-ratio weights. JAWS also includes computationally efficient \textbf{A}pproximations of JAW using higher-order influence functions: \textbf{JAWA}. Theoretically, we show that JAW relaxes the jackknife+'s assumption of data exchangeability to achieve the same finite-sample coverage guarantee even under covariate shift. JAWA further approaches the JAW guarantee in the limit of either the sample size or the influence function order under mild assumptions. Moreover, we propose a general approach to repurposing any distribution-free uncertainty quantification method and its guarantees to the task of risk assessment: a task that generates the estimated probability that the true label lies within a user-specified interval. We then propose \textbf{JAW-R} and \textbf{JAWA-R} as the repurposed versions of proposed methods for \textbf{R}isk assessment. Practically, JAWS outperform the state-of-the-art predictive inference baselines in a variety of biased real world data sets for both interval-generation and risk-assessment auditing tasks.

Trajectory prediction has been widely pursued in many fields, and many model-based and model-free methods have been explored. The former include rule-based, geometric or optimization-based models, and the latter are mainly comprised of deep learning approaches. In this paper, we propose a new method combining both methodologies based on a new Neural Differential Equation model. Our new model (Neural Social Physics or NSP) is a deep neural network within which we use an explicit physics model with learnable parameters. The explicit physics model serves as a strong inductive bias in modeling pedestrian behaviors, while the rest of the network provides a strong data-fitting capability in terms of system parameter estimation and dynamics stochasticity modeling. We compare NSP with 15 recent deep learning methods on 6 datasets and improve the state-of-the-art performance by 5.56%-70%. Besides, we show that NSP has better generalizability in predicting plausible trajectories in drastically different scenarios where the density is 2-5 times as high as the testing data. Finally, we show that the physics model in NSP can provide plausible explanations for pedestrian behaviors, as opposed to black-box deep learning. Code is available: //github.com/realcrane/Human-Trajectory-Prediction-via-Neural-Social-Physics.

The aim of this research is to identify an efficient model to describe the fluctuations around the trend of the soil temperatures monitored in the volcanic caldera of the Campi Flegrei area in Naples (Italy). The study focuses on the data concerning the temperatures in the mentioned area through a seven-year period. The research is initially finalized to identify the deterministic component of the model, given by the seasonal trend of the temperatures, which is obtained through an adapted regression method on the time series. Subsequently, the stochastic component from the time series is tested to represent a fractional Brownian motion (fBm). An estimation based on the periodogram of the data is used to estabilish that the data series follows a fBm motion, rather then a fractional Gaussian noise. An estimation of the Hurst exponent $H$ of the process is also obtained. Finally, an inference test based on the detrended moving average of the data is adopted in order to assess the hypothesis that the time series follows a suitably estimated fBm.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.