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This paper studies the impact of bootstrap procedure on the eigenvalue distributions of the sample covariance matrix under the high-dimensional factor structure. We provide asymptotic distributions for the top eigenvalues of bootstrapped sample covariance matrix under mild conditions. After bootstrap, the spiked eigenvalues which are driven by common factors will converge weakly to Gaussian limits via proper scaling and centralization. However, the largest non-spiked eigenvalue is mainly determined by order statistics of bootstrap resampling weights, and follows extreme value distribution. Based on the disparate behavior of the spiked and non-spiked eigenvalues, we propose innovative methods to test the number of common factors. According to the simulations and a real data example, the proposed methods are the only ones performing reliably and convincingly under the existence of both weak factors and cross-sectionally correlated errors. Our technical details contribute to random matrix theory on spiked covariance model with convexly decaying density and unbounded support, or with general elliptical distributions.

We propose a data segmentation methodology for the high-dimensional linear regression problem where the regression parameters are allowed to undergo multiple changes. The proposed methodology, MOSEG, proceeds in two stages where the data is first scanned for multiple change points using a moving window-based procedure, which is followed by a location refinement stage. MOSEG enjoys computational efficiency thanks to the adoption of a coarse grid in the first stage, as well as achieving theoretical consistency in estimating both the total number and the locations of the change points without requiring independence or sub-Gaussianity. In particular, it nearly matches minimax optimal rates when Gaussianity is assumed. We also propose MOSEG.MS, a multiscale extension of MOSEG which, while comparable to MOSEG in terms of computational complexity, achieves theoretical consistency for a broader parameter space that permits multiscale change points. We demonstrate good performance of the proposed methods in comparative simulation studies and also in applications to climate science and economic datasets.

The use of neural networks has been very successful in a wide variety of applications. However, it has recently been observed that it is difficult to generalize the performance of neural networks under the condition of distributional shift. Several efforts have been made to identify potential out-of-distribution inputs. Although existing literature has made significant progress with regard to images and textual data, finance has been overlooked. The aim of this paper is to investigate the distribution shift in the credit scoring problem, one of the most important applications of finance. For the potential distribution shift problem, we propose a novel two-stage model. Using the out-of-distribution detection method, data is first separated into confident and unconfident sets. As a second step, we utilize the domain knowledge with a mean-variance optimization in order to provide reliable bounds for unconfident samples. Using empirical results, we demonstrate that our model offers reliable predictions for the vast majority of datasets. It is only a small portion of the dataset that is inherently difficult to judge, and we leave them to the judgment of human beings. Based on the two-stage model, highly confident predictions have been made and potential risks associated with the model have been significantly reduced.

Deployed machine learning (ML) models often encounter new user data that differs from their training data. Therefore, estimating how well a given model might perform on the new data is an important step toward reliable ML applications. This is very challenging, however, as the data distribution can change in flexible ways, and we may not have any labels on the new data, which is often the case in monitoring settings. In this paper, we propose a new distribution shift model, Sparse Joint Shift (SJS), which considers the joint shift of both labels and a few features. This unifies and generalizes several existing shift models including label shift and sparse covariate shift, where only marginal feature or label distribution shifts are considered. We describe mathematical conditions under which SJS is identifiable. We further propose SEES, an algorithmic framework to characterize the distribution shift under SJS and to estimate a model's performance on new data without any labels. We conduct extensive experiments on several real-world datasets with various ML models. Across different datasets and distribution shifts, SEES achieves significant (up to an order of magnitude) shift estimation error improvements over existing approaches.

In this paper, we consider decentralized optimization problems where agents have individual cost functions to minimize subject to subspace constraints that require the minimizers across the network to lie in low-dimensional subspaces. This constrained formulation includes consensus or single-task optimization as special cases, and allows for more general task relatedness models such as multitask smoothness and coupled optimization. In order to cope with communication constraints, we propose and study an adaptive decentralized strategy where the agents employ differential randomized quantizers to compress their estimates before communicating with their neighbors. The analysis shows that, under some general conditions on the quantization noise, and for sufficiently small step-sizes $\mu$, the strategy is stable both in terms of mean-square error and average bit rate: by reducing $\mu$, it is possible to keep the estimation errors small (on the order of $\mu$) without increasing indefinitely the bit rate as $\mu\rightarrow 0$. Simulations illustrate the theoretical findings and the effectiveness of the proposed approach, revealing that decentralized learning is achievable at the expense of only a few bits.

Variational Bayesian posterior inference often requires simplifying approximations such as mean-field parametrisation to ensure tractability. However, prior work has associated the variational mean-field approximation for Bayesian neural networks with underfitting in the case of small datasets or large model sizes. In this work, we show that invariances in the likelihood function of over-parametrised models contribute to this phenomenon because these invariances complicate the structure of the posterior by introducing discrete and/or continuous modes which cannot be well approximated by Gaussian mean-field distributions. In particular, we show that the mean-field approximation has an additional gap in the evidence lower bound compared to a purpose-built posterior that takes into account the known invariances. Importantly, this invariance gap is not constant; it vanishes as the approximation reverts to the prior. We proceed by first considering translation invariances in a linear model with a single data point in detail. We show that, while the true posterior can be constructed from a mean-field parametrisation, this is achieved only if the objective function takes into account the invariance gap. Then, we transfer our analysis of the linear model to neural networks. Our analysis provides a framework for future work to explore solutions to the invariance problem.

We investigate hypothesis testing in nonparametric additive models estimated using simplified smooth backfitting (Huang and Yu, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, \textbf{28(2)}, 386--400, 2019). Simplified smooth backfitting achieves oracle properties under regularity conditions and provides closed-form expressions of the estimators that are useful for deriving asymptotic properties. We develop a generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) and a loss function (LF) based testing framework for inference. Under the null hypothesis, both the GLR and LF tests have asymptotically rescaled chi-squared distributions, and both exhibit the Wilks phenomenon, which means the scaling constants and degrees of freedom are independent of nuisance parameters. These tests are asymptotically optimal in terms of rates of convergence for nonparametric hypothesis testing. Additionally, the bandwidths that are well-suited for model estimation may be useful for testing. We show that in additive models, the LF test is asymptotically more powerful than the GLR test. We use simulations to demonstrate the Wilks phenomenon and the power of these proposed GLR and LF tests, and a real example to illustrate their usefulness.

It is now well understood that machine learning models, trained on data without due care, often exhibit unfair and discriminatory behavior against certain populations. Traditional algorithmic fairness research has mainly focused on supervised learning tasks, particularly classification. While fairness in unsupervised learning has received some attention, the literature has primarily addressed fair representation learning of continuous embeddings. In this paper, we conversely focus on unsupervised learning using probabilistic graphical models with discrete latent variables. We develop a fair stochastic variational inference technique for the discrete latent variables, which is accomplished by including a fairness penalty on the variational distribution that aims to respect the principles of intersectionality, a critical lens on fairness from the legal, social science, and humanities literature, and then optimizing the variational parameters under this penalty. We first show the utility of our method in improving equity and fairness for clustering using na\"ive Bayes and Gaussian mixture models on benchmark datasets. To demonstrate the generality of our approach and its potential for real-world impact, we then develop a special-purpose graphical model for criminal justice risk assessments, and use our fairness approach to prevent the inferences from encoding unfair societal biases.

We consider observations $(X,y)$ from single index models with unknown link function, Gaussian covariates and a regularized M-estimator $\hat\beta$ constructed from convex loss function and regularizer. In the regime where sample size $n$ and dimension $p$ are both increasing such that $p/n$ has a finite limit, the behavior of the empirical distribution of $\hat\beta$ and the predicted values $X\hat\beta$ has been previously characterized in a number of models: The empirical distributions are known to converge to proximal operators of the loss and penalty in a related Gaussian sequence model, which captures the interplay between ratio $p/n$, loss, regularization and the data generating process. This connection between$(\hat\beta,X\hat\beta)$ and the corresponding proximal operators require solving fixed-point equations that typically involve unobservable quantities such as the prior distribution on the index or the link function. This paper develops a different theory to describe the empirical distribution of $\hat\beta$ and $X\hat\beta$: Approximations of $(\hat\beta,X\hat\beta)$ in terms of proximal operators are provided that only involve observable adjustments. These proposed observable adjustments are data-driven, e.g., do not require prior knowledge of the index or the link function. These new adjustments yield confidence intervals for individual components of the index, as well as estimators of the correlation of $\hat\beta$ with the index. The interplay between loss, regularization and the model is thus captured in a data-driven manner, without solving the fixed-point equations studied in previous works. The results apply to both strongly convex regularizers and unregularized M-estimation. Simulations are provided for the square and logistic loss in single index models including logistic regression and 1-bit compressed sensing with 20\% corrupted bits.

We consider a potential outcomes model in which interference may be present between any two units but the extent of interference diminishes with spatial distance. The causal estimand is the global average treatment effect, which compares outcomes under the counterfactuals that all or no units are treated. We study a class of designs in which space is partitioned into clusters that are randomized into treatment and control. For each design, we estimate the treatment effect using a Horvitz-Thompson estimator that compares the average outcomes of units with all or no neighbors treated, where the neighborhood radius is of the same order as the cluster size dictated by the design. We derive the estimator's rate of convergence as a function of the design and degree of interference and use this to obtain estimator-design pairs that achieve near-optimal rates of convergence under relatively minimal assumptions on interference. We prove that the estimators are asymptotically normal and provide a variance estimator. For practical implementation of the designs, we suggest partitioning space using clustering algorithms.