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Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This work aims at showing how 1) data-driven, stochastic machine learning approaches provide an affordable yet flexible means to forecast these processes; 2) the associated uncertainty can be properly calibrated with fast ensemble-based approaches. While the methodology introduced and discussed in this work pertains to synoptic scale events, the principle of augmenting incomplete or highly sensitive physical systems with data-driven models to improve predictability is far more general and can be extended to environmental problems of any scale in time or space.

The main approaches for simulating FMCW radar are based on ray tracing, which is usually computationally intensive and do not account for background noise. This work proposes a faster method for FMCW radar simulation capable of generating synthetic raw radar data using generative adversarial networks (GAN). The code and pre-trained weights are open-source and available on GitHub. This method generates 16 simultaneous chirps, which allows the generated data to be used for the further development of algorithms for processing radar data (filtering and clustering). This can increase the potential for data augmentation, e.g., by generating data in non-existent or safety-critical scenarios that are not reproducible in real life. In this work, the GAN was trained with radar measurements of a motorcycle and used to generate synthetic raw radar data of a motorcycle traveling in a straight line. For generating this data, the distance of the motorcycle and Gaussian noise are used as input to the neural network. The synthetic generated radar chirps were evaluated using the Frechet Inception Distance (FID). Then, the Range-Azimuth (RA) map is calculated twice: first, based on synthetic data using this GAN and, second, based on real data. Based on these RA maps, an algorithm with adaptive threshold and edge detection is used for object detection. The results have shown that the data is realistic in terms of coherent radar reflections of the motorcycle and background noise based on the comparison of chirps, the RA maps and the object detection results. Thus, the proposed method in this work has shown to minimize the simulation-to-reality gap for the generation of radar data.

We study how to extend the use of the diffusion model to answer the causal question from the observational data under the existence of unmeasured confounders. In Pearl's framework of using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) to capture the causal intervention, a Diffusion-based Causal Model (DCM) was proposed incorporating the diffusion model to answer the causal questions more accurately, assuming that all of the confounders are observed. However, unmeasured confounders in practice exist, which hinders DCM from being applicable. To alleviate this limitation of DCM, we propose an extended model called Backdoor Criterion based DCM (BDCM), whose idea is rooted in the Backdoor criterion to find the variables in DAG to be included in the decoding process of the diffusion model so that we can extend DCM to the case with unmeasured confounders. Synthetic data experiment demonstrates that our proposed model captures the counterfactual distribution more precisely than DCM under the unmeasured confounders.

This work extends the paradigm of evolutional deep neural networks (EDNNs) to solving parametric time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) on domains with geometric structure. By introducing positional embeddings based on eigenfunctions of the Laplace-Beltrami operator, geometric properties are encoded intrinsically and Dirichlet, Neumann and periodic boundary conditions of the PDE solution are enforced directly through the neural network architecture. The proposed embeddings lead to improved error convergence for static PDEs and extend EDNNs towards computational domains of realistic complexity. Several steps are taken to improve performance of EDNNs: Solving the EDNN update equation with a Krylov solver avoids the explicit assembly of Jacobians and enables scaling to larger neural networks. Computational efficiency is further improved by an ad-hoc active sampling scheme that uses the PDE dynamics to effectively sample collocation points. A modified linearly implicit Rosenbrock method is proposed to alleviate the time step requirements of stiff PDEs. Lastly, a completely training-free approach, which automatically enforces initial conditions and only requires time integration, is compared against EDNNs that are trained on the initial conditions. We report results for the Korteweg-de Vries equation, a nonlinear heat equation and (nonlinear) advection-diffusion problems on domains with and without holes and various boundary conditions, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The numerical results highlight EDNNs as a promising surrogate model for parametrized PDEs with slow decaying Kolmogorov n-width.

With deep neural networks (DNNs) emerging as the backbone in a multitude of computer vision tasks, their adoption in real-world applications broadens continuously. Given the abundance and omnipresence of smart devices in the consumer landscape, "smart ecosystems'' are being formed where sensing happens concurrently rather than standalone. This is shifting the on-device inference paradigm towards deploying centralised neural processing units (NPUs) at the edge, where multiple devices (e.g. in smart homes or autonomous vehicles) can stream their data for processing with dynamic rates. While this provides enhanced potential for input batching, naive solutions can lead to subpar performance and quality of experience, especially under spiking loads. At the same time, the deployment of dynamic DNNs, comprising stochastic computation graphs (e.g. early-exit (EE) models), introduces a new dimension of dynamic behaviour in such systems. In this work, we propose a novel early-exit-aware scheduling algorithm that allows sample preemption at run time, to account for the dynamicity introduced both by the arrival and early-exiting processes. At the same time, we introduce two novel dimensions to the design space of the NPU hardware architecture, namely Fluid Batching and Stackable Processing Elements, that enable run-time adaptability to different batch sizes and significantly improve the NPU utilisation even at small batches. Our evaluation shows that the proposed system achieves an average 1.97x and 6.7x improvement over state-of-the-art DNN streaming systems in terms of average latency and tail latency service-level objective (SLO) satisfaction, respectively.

In space-air-ground integrated networks (SAGIN), receivers experience diverse interference from both the satellite and terrestrial transmitters. The heterogeneous structure of SAGIN poses challenges for traditional interference management (IM) schemes to effectively mitigate interference. To address this, a novel UAV-RIS-aided IM scheme is proposed for SAGIN, where different types of channel state information (CSI) including no CSI, instantaneous CSI, and delayed CSI, are considered. According to the types of CSI, interference alignment, beamforming, and space-time precoding are designed at the satellite and terrestrial transmitter side, and meanwhile, the UAV-RIS is introduced for cooperating interference elimination process. Additionally, the degrees of freedom (DoF) obtained by the proposed IM scheme are discussed in depth when the number of antennas on the satellite side is insufficient. Simulation results show that the proposed IM scheme improves the system capacity in different CSI scenarios, and the performance is better than the existing IM benchmarks without UAV-RIS.

We describe ACE0, a lightweight platform for evaluating the suitability and viability of AI methods for behaviour discovery in multiagent simulations. Specifically, ACE0 was designed to explore AI methods for multi-agent simulations used in operations research studies related to new technologies such as autonomous aircraft. Simulation environments used in production are often high-fidelity, complex, require significant domain knowledge and as a result have high R&D costs. Minimal and lightweight simulation environments can help researchers and engineers evaluate the viability of new AI technologies for behaviour discovery in a more agile and potentially cost effective manner. In this paper we describe the motivation for the development of ACE0.We provide a technical overview of the system architecture, describe a case study of behaviour discovery in the aerospace domain, and provide a qualitative evaluation of the system. The evaluation includes a brief description of collaborative research projects with academic partners, exploring different AI behaviour discovery methods.

Translational distance-based knowledge graph embedding has shown progressive improvements on the link prediction task, from TransE to the latest state-of-the-art RotatE. However, N-1, 1-N and N-N predictions still remain challenging. In this work, we propose a novel translational distance-based approach for knowledge graph link prediction. The proposed method includes two-folds, first we extend the RotatE from 2D complex domain to high dimension space with orthogonal transforms to model relations for better modeling capacity. Second, the graph context is explicitly modeled via two directed context representations. These context representations are used as part of the distance scoring function to measure the plausibility of the triples during training and inference. The proposed approach effectively improves prediction accuracy on the difficult N-1, 1-N and N-N cases for knowledge graph link prediction task. The experimental results show that it achieves better performance on two benchmark data sets compared to the baseline RotatE, especially on data set (FB15k-237) with many high in-degree connection nodes.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been found to be vulnerable to adversarial examples resulting from adding small-magnitude perturbations to inputs. Such adversarial examples can mislead DNNs to produce adversary-selected results. Different attack strategies have been proposed to generate adversarial examples, but how to produce them with high perceptual quality and more efficiently requires more research efforts. In this paper, we propose AdvGAN to generate adversarial examples with generative adversarial networks (GANs), which can learn and approximate the distribution of original instances. For AdvGAN, once the generator is trained, it can generate adversarial perturbations efficiently for any instance, so as to potentially accelerate adversarial training as defenses. We apply AdvGAN in both semi-whitebox and black-box attack settings. In semi-whitebox attacks, there is no need to access the original target model after the generator is trained, in contrast to traditional white-box attacks. In black-box attacks, we dynamically train a distilled model for the black-box model and optimize the generator accordingly. Adversarial examples generated by AdvGAN on different target models have high attack success rate under state-of-the-art defenses compared to other attacks. Our attack has placed the first with 92.76% accuracy on a public MNIST black-box attack challenge.

In this paper, we propose the joint learning attention and recurrent neural network (RNN) models for multi-label classification. While approaches based on the use of either model exist (e.g., for the task of image captioning), training such existing network architectures typically require pre-defined label sequences. For multi-label classification, it would be desirable to have a robust inference process, so that the prediction error would not propagate and thus affect the performance. Our proposed model uniquely integrates attention and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) models, which not only addresses the above problem but also allows one to identify visual objects of interests with varying sizes without the prior knowledge of particular label ordering. More importantly, label co-occurrence information can be jointly exploited by our LSTM model. Finally, by advancing the technique of beam search, prediction of multiple labels can be efficiently achieved by our proposed network model.