While machine learning models rapidly advance the state-of-the-art on various real-world tasks, out-of-domain (OOD) generalization remains a challenging problem given the vulnerability of these models to spurious correlations. We propose a causally-motivated balanced mini-batch sampling strategy to transform the observed train distribution to a balanced distribution that is free of spurious correlations. We argue that the Bayes optimal classifier trained on such balanced distribution is minimax optimal across a diverse enough environment space. We also provide an identifiability guarantee of the latent variable model of the proposed underlying data generation process with invariant causal mechanisms, by utilizing enough number of train environments. Experiments are conducted on three domain generalization datasets, demonstrating empirically that our balanced mini-batch sampling strategy improves the performance of four different established domain generalization model baselines compared to the random mini-batch sampling strategy.
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We present a systematic study of domain generalization (DG) for tiny neural networks, a problem that is critical to on-device machine learning applications but has been overlooked in the literature where research has been focused on large models only. Tiny neural networks have much fewer parameters and lower complexity, and thus should not be trained the same way as their large counterparts for DG applications. We find that knowledge distillation is a strong candidate for solving the problem: it outperforms state-of-the-art DG methods that were developed using large models with a large margin. Moreover, we observe that the teacher-student performance gap on test data with domain shift is bigger than that on in-distribution data. To improve DG for tiny neural networks without increasing the deployment cost, we propose a simple idea called out-of-distribution knowledge distillation (OKD), which aims to teach the student how the teacher handles (synthetic) out-of-distribution data and is proved to be a promising framework for solving the problem. We also contribute a scalable method of creating DG datasets, called DOmain Shift in COntext (DOSCO), which can be applied to broad data at scale without much human effort. Code and models are released at \url{//github.com/KaiyangZhou/on-device-dg}.
To estimate causal effects, analysts performing observational studies in health settings utilize several strategies to mitigate bias due to confounding by indication. There are two broad classes of approaches for these purposes: use of confounders and instrumental variables (IVs). Because such approaches are largely characterized by untestable assumptions, analysts must operate under an indefinite paradigm that these methods will work imperfectly. In this tutorial, we formalize a set of general principles and heuristics for estimating causal effects in the two approaches when the assumptions are potentially violated. This crucially requires reframing the process of observational studies as hypothesizing potential scenarios where the estimates from one approach are less inconsistent than the other. While most of our discussion of methodology centers around the linear setting, we touch upon complexities in non-linear settings and flexible procedures such as target minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) and double machine learning (DML). To demonstrate the application of our principles, we investigate the use of donepezil off-label for mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We compare and contrast results from confounder and IV methods, traditional and flexible, within our analysis and to a similar observational study and clinical trial.
Model calibration measures the agreement between the predicted probability estimates and the true correctness likelihood. Proper model calibration is vital for high-risk applications. Unfortunately, modern deep neural networks are poorly calibrated, compromising trustworthiness and reliability. Medical image segmentation particularly suffers from this due to the natural uncertainty of tissue boundaries. This is exasperated by their loss functions, which favor overconfidence in the majority classes. We address these challenges with DOMINO, a domain-aware model calibration method that leverages the semantic confusability and hierarchical similarity between class labels. Our experiments demonstrate that our DOMINO-calibrated deep neural networks outperform non-calibrated models and state-of-the-art morphometric methods in head image segmentation. Our results show that our method can consistently achieve better calibration, higher accuracy, and faster inference times than these methods, especially on rarer classes. This performance is attributed to our domain-aware regularization to inform semantic model calibration. These findings show the importance of semantic ties between class labels in building confidence in deep learning models. The framework has the potential to improve the trustworthiness and reliability of generic medical image segmentation models. The code for this article is available at: //github.com/lab-smile/DOMINO.
Causal discovery (CD) from time-varying data is important in neuroscience, medicine, and machine learning. Techniques for CD include randomized experiments which are generally unbiased but expensive. It also includes algorithms like regression, matching, and Granger causality, which are only correct under strong assumptions made by human designers. However, as we found in other areas of machine learning, humans are usually not quite right and are usually outperformed by data-driven approaches. Here we test if we can improve causal discovery in a data-driven way. We take a system with a large number of causal components (transistors), the MOS 6502 processor, and meta-learn the causal discovery procedure represented as a neural network. We find that this procedure far outperforms human-designed causal discovery procedures, such as Mutual Information and Granger Causality. We argue that the causality field should consider, where possible, a supervised approach, where CD procedures are learned from large datasets with known causal relations instead of being designed by a human specialist. Our findings promise a new approach toward CD in neural and medical data and for the broader machine learning community.
Unsupervised domain adaptation has recently emerged as an effective paradigm for generalizing deep neural networks to new target domains. However, there is still enormous potential to be tapped to reach the fully supervised performance. In this paper, we present a novel active learning strategy to assist knowledge transfer in the target domain, dubbed active domain adaptation. We start from an observation that energy-based models exhibit free energy biases when training (source) and test (target) data come from different distributions. Inspired by this inherent mechanism, we empirically reveal that a simple yet efficient energy-based sampling strategy sheds light on selecting the most valuable target samples than existing approaches requiring particular architectures or computation of the distances. Our algorithm, Energy-based Active Domain Adaptation (EADA), queries groups of targe data that incorporate both domain characteristic and instance uncertainty into every selection round. Meanwhile, by aligning the free energy of target data compact around the source domain via a regularization term, domain gap can be implicitly diminished. Through extensive experiments, we show that EADA surpasses state-of-the-art methods on well-known challenging benchmarks with substantial improvements, making it a useful option in the open world. Code is available at //github.com/BIT-DA/EADA.
In the domain generalization literature, a common objective is to learn representations independent of the domain after conditioning on the class label. We show that this objective is not sufficient: there exist counter-examples where a model fails to generalize to unseen domains even after satisfying class-conditional domain invariance. We formalize this observation through a structural causal model and show the importance of modeling within-class variations for generalization. Specifically, classes contain objects that characterize specific causal features, and domains can be interpreted as interventions on these objects that change non-causal features. We highlight an alternative condition: inputs across domains should have the same representation if they are derived from the same object. Based on this objective, we propose matching-based algorithms when base objects are observed (e.g., through data augmentation) and approximate the objective when objects are not observed (MatchDG). Our simple matching-based algorithms are competitive to prior work on out-of-domain accuracy for rotated MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, PACS, and Chest-Xray datasets. Our method MatchDG also recovers ground-truth object matches: on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST, top-10 matches from MatchDG have over 50% overlap with ground-truth matches.
Domain generalization (DG), i.e., out-of-distribution generalization, has attracted increased interests in recent years. Domain generalization deals with a challenging setting where one or several different but related domain(s) are given, and the goal is to learn a model that can generalize to an unseen test domain. For years, great progress has been achieved. This paper presents the first review for recent advances in domain generalization. First, we provide a formal definition of domain generalization and discuss several related fields. Next, we thoroughly review the theories related to domain generalization and carefully analyze the theory behind generalization. Then, we categorize recent algorithms into three classes and present them in detail: data manipulation, representation learning, and learning strategy, each of which contains several popular algorithms. Third, we introduce the commonly used datasets and applications. Finally, we summarize existing literature and present some potential research topics for the future.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.
Model-agnostic meta-learners aim to acquire meta-learned parameters from similar tasks to adapt to novel tasks from the same distribution with few gradient updates. With the flexibility in the choice of models, those frameworks demonstrate appealing performance on a variety of domains such as few-shot image classification and reinforcement learning. However, one important limitation of such frameworks is that they seek a common initialization shared across the entire task distribution, substantially limiting the diversity of the task distributions that they are able to learn from. In this paper, we augment MAML with the capability to identify the mode of tasks sampled from a multimodal task distribution and adapt quickly through gradient updates. Specifically, we propose a multimodal MAML (MMAML) framework, which is able to modulate its meta-learned prior parameters according to the identified mode, allowing more efficient fast adaptation. We evaluate the proposed model on a diverse set of few-shot learning tasks, including regression, image classification, and reinforcement learning. The results not only demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in modulating the meta-learned prior in response to the characteristics of tasks but also show that training on a multimodal distribution can produce an improvement over unimodal training.
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