Randomized controlled trials are commonly regarded as the gold standard for causal inference and play a pivotal role in modern evidence-based medicine. However, the sample sizes they use are often too limited to draw significant causal conclusions for subgroups that are less prevalent in the population. In contrast, observational data are becoming increasingly accessible in large volumes but can be subject to bias as a result of hidden confounding. Given these complementary features, we propose a power likelihood approach to augmenting RCTs with observational data for robust estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. We provide a data-adaptive procedure for maximizing the Expected Log Predictive Density (ELPD) to select the influence factor that best regulates the information from the observational data. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the efficacy of our method and its favourable features compared to existing approaches. Lastly, we apply the proposed method to data from Tennessee's Student Teacher Achievement Ratio (STAR) Study to demonstrate its usefulness and practicality in real-world data analysis.
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This paper examines robust functional data analysis for discretely observed data, where the underlying process encompasses various distributions, such as heavy tail, skewness, or contaminations. We propose a unified robust concept of functional mean, covariance, and principal component analysis, while existing methods and definitions often differ from one another or only address fully observed functions (the ``ideal'' case). Specifically, the robust functional mean can deviate from its non-robust counterpart and is estimated using robust local linear regression. Moreover, we define a new robust functional covariance that shares useful properties with the classic version. Importantly, this covariance yields the robust version of Karhunen--Lo\`eve decomposition and corresponding principal components beneficial for dimension reduction. The theoretical results of the robust functional mean, covariance, and eigenfunction estimates, based on pooling discretely observed data (ranging from sparse to dense), are established and aligned with their non-robust counterparts. The newly-proposed perturbation bounds for estimated eigenfunctions, with indexes allowed to grow with sample size, lay the foundation for further modeling based on robust functional principal component analysis.
Deep learning in computer vision has achieved great success with the price of large-scale labeled training data. However, exhaustive data annotation is impracticable for each task of all domains of interest, due to high labor costs and unguaranteed labeling accuracy. Besides, the uncontrollable data collection process produces non-IID training and test data, where undesired duplication may exist. All these nuisances may hinder the verification of typical theories and exposure to new findings. To circumvent them, an alternative is to generate synthetic data via 3D rendering with domain randomization. We in this work push forward along this line by doing profound and extensive research on bare supervised learning and downstream domain adaptation. Specifically, under the well-controlled, IID data setting enabled by 3D rendering, we systematically verify the typical, important learning insights, e.g., shortcut learning, and discover the new laws of various data regimes and network architectures in generalization. We further investigate the effect of image formation factors on generalization, e.g., object scale, material texture, illumination, camera viewpoint, and background in a 3D scene. Moreover, we use the simulation-to-reality adaptation as a downstream task for comparing the transferability between synthetic and real data when used for pre-training, which demonstrates that synthetic data pre-training is also promising to improve real test results. Lastly, to promote future research, we develop a new large-scale synthetic-to-real benchmark for image classification, termed S2RDA, which provides more significant challenges for transfer from simulation to reality. The code and datasets are available at //github.com/huitangtang/On_the_Utility_of_Synthetic_Data.
Mobility systems often suffer from a high price of anarchy due to the uncontrolled behavior of selfish users. This may result in societal costs that are significantly higher compared to what could be achieved by a centralized system-optimal controller. Monetary tolling schemes can effectively align the behavior of selfish users with the system-optimum. Yet, they inevitably discriminate the population in terms of income. Artificial currencies were recently presented as an effective alternative that can achieve the same performance, whilst guaranteeing fairness among the population. However, those studies were based on behavioral models that may differ from practical implementations. This paper presents a data-driven approach to automatically adapt artificial-currency tolls within repetitive-game settings. We first consider a parallel-arc setting whereby users commute on a daily basis from an individual origin to an individual destination, choosing a route in exchange of an artificial-currency price or reward, while accounting for the impact of the choices of the other users on travel discomfort. Second, we devise a model-based reinforcement learning controller that autonomously learns the optimal pricing policy by interacting with the proposed framework considering the closeness of the observed aggregate flows to a desired system-optimal distribution as a reward function. Our numerical results show that the proposed data-driven pricing scheme can effectively align the users' flows with the system optimum, significantly reducing the societal costs with respect to the uncontrolled flows (by about 15% and 25% depending on the scenario), and respond to environmental changes in a robust and efficient manner.
Existing heterogeneous treatment effects learners, also known as conditional average treatment effects (CATE) learners, lack a general mechanism for end-to-end inter-treatment information sharing, and data have to be split among potential outcome functions to train CATE learners which can lead to biased estimates with limited observational datasets. To address this issue, we propose a novel deep learning-based framework to train CATE learners that facilitates dynamic end-to-end information sharing among treatment groups. The framework is based on \textit{soft weight sharing} of \textit{hypernetworks}, which offers advantages such as parameter efficiency, faster training, and improved results. The proposed framework complements existing CATE learners and introduces a new class of uncertainty-aware CATE learners that we refer to as \textit{HyperCATE}. We develop HyperCATE versions of commonly used CATE learners and evaluate them on IHDP, ACIC-2016, and Twins benchmarks. Our experimental results show that the proposed framework improves the CATE estimation error via counterfactual inference, with increasing effectiveness for smaller datasets.
We study a generalization of the online binary prediction with expert advice framework where at each round, the learner is allowed to pick $m\geq 1$ experts from a pool of $K$ experts and the overall utility is a modular or submodular function of the chosen experts. We focus on the setting in which experts act strategically and aim to maximize their influence on the algorithm's predictions by potentially misreporting their beliefs about the events. Among others, this setting finds applications in forecasting competitions where the learner seeks not only to make predictions by aggregating different forecasters but also to rank them according to their relative performance. Our goal is to design algorithms that satisfy the following two requirements: 1) $\textit{Incentive-compatible}$: Incentivize the experts to report their beliefs truthfully, and 2) $\textit{No-regret}$: Achieve sublinear regret with respect to the true beliefs of the best fixed set of $m$ experts in hindsight. Prior works have studied this framework when $m=1$ and provided incentive-compatible no-regret algorithms for the problem. We first show that a simple reduction of our problem to the $m=1$ setting is neither efficient nor effective. Then, we provide algorithms that utilize the specific structure of the utility functions to achieve the two desired goals.
Time-sensitive networks require timely and accurate monitoring of the status of the network. To achieve this, many devices send packets periodically, which are then aggregated and forwarded to the controller. Bounding the aggregate burstiness of the traffic is then crucial for effective resource management. In this paper, we are interested in bounding this aggregate burstiness for independent and periodic flows. A deterministic bound is tight only when flows are perfectly synchronized, which is highly unlikely in practice and would be overly pessimistic. We compute the probability that the aggregate burstiness exceeds some value. When all flows have the same period and packet size, we obtain a closed-form bound using the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz inequality. In the heterogeneous case, we group flows and combine the bounds obtained for each group using the convolution bound. Our bounds are numerically close to simulations and thus fairly tight. The resulting aggregate burstiness estimated for a non-zero violation probability is considerably smaller than the deterministic one: it grows in $\sqrt{n\log{n}}$, instead of $n$, where $n$ is the number of flows.
Massive amounts of data are the foundation of data-driven recommendation models. As an inherent nature of big data, data heterogeneity widely exists in real-world recommendation systems. It reflects the differences in the properties among sub-populations. Ignoring the heterogeneity in recommendation data could limit the performance of recommendation models, hurt the sub-populational robustness, and make the models misled by biases. However, data heterogeneity has not attracted substantial attention in the recommendation community. Therefore, it inspires us to adequately explore and exploit heterogeneity for solving the above problems and assisting data analysis. In this work, we focus on exploring two representative categories of heterogeneity in recommendation data that is the heterogeneity of prediction mechanism and covariate distribution and propose an algorithm that explores the heterogeneity through a bilevel clustering method. Furthermore, the uncovered heterogeneity is exploited for two purposes in recommendation scenarios which are prediction with multiple sub-models and supporting debias. Extensive experiments on real-world data validate the existence of heterogeneity in recommendation data and the effectiveness of exploring and exploiting data heterogeneity in recommendation.
Invariant risk minimization (IRM) has recently emerged as a promising alternative for domain generalization. Nevertheless, the loss function is difficult to optimize for nonlinear classifiers and the original optimization objective could fail when pseudo-invariant features and geometric skews exist. Inspired by IRM, in this paper we propose a novel formulation for domain generalization, dubbed invariant information bottleneck (IIB). IIB aims at minimizing invariant risks for nonlinear classifiers and simultaneously mitigating the impact of pseudo-invariant features and geometric skews. Specifically, we first present a novel formulation for invariant causal prediction via mutual information. Then we adopt the variational formulation of the mutual information to develop a tractable loss function for nonlinear classifiers. To overcome the failure modes of IRM, we propose to minimize the mutual information between the inputs and the corresponding representations. IIB significantly outperforms IRM on synthetic datasets, where the pseudo-invariant features and geometric skews occur, showing the effectiveness of proposed formulation in overcoming failure modes of IRM. Furthermore, experiments on DomainBed show that IIB outperforms $13$ baselines by $0.9\%$ on average across $7$ real datasets.
Analyzing observational data from multiple sources can be useful for increasing statistical power to detect a treatment effect; however, practical constraints such as privacy considerations may restrict individual-level information sharing across data sets. This paper develops federated methods that only utilize summary-level information from heterogeneous data sets. Our federated methods provide doubly-robust point estimates of treatment effects as well as variance estimates. We derive the asymptotic distributions of our federated estimators, which are shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding estimators from the combined, individual-level data. We show that to achieve these properties, federated methods should be adjusted based on conditions such as whether models are correctly specified and stable across heterogeneous data sets.
For better user experience and business effectiveness, Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction has been one of the most important tasks in E-commerce. Although extensive CTR prediction models have been proposed, learning good representation of items from multimodal features is still less investigated, considering an item in E-commerce usually contains multiple heterogeneous modalities. Previous works either concatenate the multiple modality features, that is equivalent to giving a fixed importance weight to each modality; or learn dynamic weights of different modalities for different items through technique like attention mechanism. However, a problem is that there usually exists common redundant information across multiple modalities. The dynamic weights of different modalities computed by using the redundant information may not correctly reflect the different importance of each modality. To address this, we explore the complementarity and redundancy of modalities by considering modality-specific and modality-invariant features differently. We propose a novel Multimodal Adversarial Representation Network (MARN) for the CTR prediction task. A multimodal attention network first calculates the weights of multiple modalities for each item according to its modality-specific features. Then a multimodal adversarial network learns modality-invariant representations where a double-discriminators strategy is introduced. Finally, we achieve the multimodal item representations by combining both modality-specific and modality-invariant representations. We conduct extensive experiments on both public and industrial datasets, and the proposed method consistently achieves remarkable improvements to the state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, the approach has been deployed in an operational E-commerce system and online A/B testing further demonstrates the effectiveness.
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